Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 26

Thread: Weaver signed

  1. #1
    Member dunner13's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    607

    Weaver signed

    With mariners for 1 yr 8.35 mill, up to 1 mill in incentives. Bet sarloos does better this year and is awhole lot cheaper.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    17,982

    Re: Weaver signed

    Quote Originally Posted by dunner13 View Post
    With mariners for 1 yr 8.35 mill, up to 1 mill in incentives. Bet sarloos does better this year and is awhole lot cheaper.
    There is very little reason to believe Saarloos will do better, but there is every reason to believe Saarloos will be cheaper.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #3
    Member harangatang's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Posts
    1,538

    Re: Weaver signed

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    There is very little reason to believe Saarloos will do better, but there is every reason to believe Saarloos will be cheaper.
    Saarloos was a little below average last year as a swingman, Weaver was absymal as a starter. I truthfully think Saarloos will be cheaper and better, especially with a change to the NL.

  5. #4
    part of BBN jmac's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Kentucky
    Posts
    2,309

    Re: Weaver signed

    Quote Originally Posted by harangatang View Post
    Saarloos was a little below average last year as a swingman, Weaver was absymal as a starter. I truthfully think Saarloos will be cheaper and better, especially with a change to the NL.
    Couldnt agree with you more.

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    We have pitchers now?!
    Posts
    1,017

    Re: Weaver signed

    Saarloos at 4.65 era for 1.2 mil..

    or

    Weaver at 4.85 era for 8+ mil...

    I'd say I'll stick with Saarloos.
    "For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled."
    -Hunter S. Thompson

  7. #6
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    17,982

    Re: Weaver signed

    Quote Originally Posted by harangatang View Post
    Saarloos was a little below average last year as a swingman, Weaver was absymal as a starter. I truthfully think Saarloos will be cheaper and better, especially with a change to the NL.
    Here's a summary of what the major projection systems think of the two for '07:

    Saarloos 2007:
    James: IP: 116; ERA: 4.97; FIP: 5.05;
    Chone: IP: 121; ERA:4.98; FIP: 5.14;
    Marcel:IP:124; ERA: 4.79; FIP: 5.09;
    ZIPS: IP: 130; ERA: 4.98; FIP: 5.18;
    Pecota:IP: 83; ERA: 5.19; FIP: 4.95;

    Weaver 2007:
    James: IP: 188; ERA: 4.40; FIP: 4.57;
    Chone: IP: 198; ERA: 4.59; FIP: 4.90;
    Marcel:IP: 168; ERA: 4.93; FIP: 4.97;
    ZIPS: IP: 187; ERA: 4.28; FIP: 4.53;
    Pecota:IP: 164; ERA: 4.44; FIP: 4.54;

    It's important to note that all of these projection systems assumed Saarloos would be in Oakland (pitchers paradise) and Weaver would be in St Louis. Since Weaver is going to an extreme pitcher's park and Saarloos is going to GABP, these projections underestimate Weaver and overestimate Saarloos when the new park effects are considered.

    Summary: Weaver is projected to eat a significant number of innings at roughly a league average performance level (major league average for qualified starters in '06 was-ERA:4.61; FIP: 4.61). Saarloos, when all is said and done, projects to be replacement level. Clearly Weaver has a much greater potential to be useful-and it isn't even close.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dracodave
    Saarloos at 4.65 era for 1.2 mil..

    or

    Weaver at 4.85 era for 8+ mil...
    Sure, but thats wishful thinking. For instance, while Pecota's weighted mean projects Saarloos to have an ERA=5.19, it thinks his most likely ERA (50th percentile) will be 5.57. Keep in mind though, that after adjusting for his new park, it's probably closer to 5.70+. Your estimate for Weaver is close enough to Pecota's 50th percentile before adjusting for his new park that i wont quibble.

    It's pretty much a no brainer....Weaver>>>>>>>>Saarloos.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #7
    Member Z-Fly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    436

    Re: Weaver signed

    JoJo, don't take me the wrong way for calling you out, but come on. Looking at the given salarys, you would rather have Weaver rather than sarloos? I know this is somewhat putting words into your mouth. I don't believe you have ever directly said this.

    Your stats and projections are somewhat impressive. But even after looking at all your given info, I would still rather have Sarloos.

    If they both had equal salarys, then I think I would agree, I would rather have Dream Weaver. But that simply isn't the case.
    WHEN DOES IT STOP!?!?

  9. #8
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    34,171

    Re: Weaver signed

    I was going to laugh if it was the Cubs who signed him. It's still funny that he signed with anyone but the Cards.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

  10. #9
    Member Z-Fly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    436

    Re: Weaver signed

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I was going to laugh if it was the Cubs who signed him. It's still funny that he signed with anyone but the Cards.
    Agreed again Chipp. For whatever reason we are seeing eye to eye today.

    I think he is crazy for not signing with the team that pretty much turned his career back in the right way.
    WHEN DOES IT STOP!?!?

  11. #10
    Member harangatang's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Posts
    1,538

    Re: Weaver signed

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's a summary of what the major projection systems think of the two for '07:

    Saarloos 2007:
    James: IP: 116; ERA: 4.97; FIP: 5.05;
    Chone: IP: 121; ERA:4.98; FIP: 5.14;
    Marcel:IP:124; ERA: 4.79; FIP: 5.09;
    ZIPS: IP: 130; ERA: 4.98; FIP: 5.18;
    Pecota:IP: 83; ERA: 5.19; FIP: 4.95;

    Weaver 2007:
    James: IP: 188; ERA: 4.40; FIP: 4.57;
    Chone: IP: 198; ERA: 4.59; FIP: 4.90;
    Marcel:IP: 168; ERA: 4.93; FIP: 4.97;
    ZIPS: IP: 187; ERA: 4.28; FIP: 4.53;
    Pecota:IP: 164; ERA: 4.44; FIP: 4.54;

    It's important to note that all of these projection systems assumed Saarloos would be in Oakland (pitchers paradise) and Weaver would be in St Louis. Since Weaver is going to an extreme pitcher's park and Saarloos is going to GABP, these projections underestimate Weaver and overestimate Saarloos when the new park effects are considered.
    Man that's so jaw dropping, holy crap your argument is based non-adjusted ERA and projections. Since 2003 Weaver has had one year with an ERA+ over a 100 with a 103 while pitching half of his games in Dodger Stadium and a follow up in 2004 with an ERA+ of 96. Last year between Anaheim and St. Louis with an ERA+ of 76 with an ERA+ of 85 in St. Louis. In comparison Milton finished the year with 95 ERA+. I honestly have more faith that Milton will outperform Weaver let alone Saarloos.

    Now to get onto Saarloos, he finished last year with an ERA+ of 93 while not only being in the AL for whole year but being a swingman as well (Weaver ERA+ 70 in the AL in 2006). The previous year while in a more stable role with 27 starts had an ERA+ of 108. I like Saarloos chances in the NL, he has a new atmosphere most likely a stable role, and not to mention good movement on pitches. He is relatively young, cheap, and has an opportunity to pitch every day. I think the worst you'll see out of Saarloos barring an injury is league average with most likely being a little better. Weaver on the other hand might be league average at the best with a likely possibility of being much worse. For $7 million dollars difference I think I'll take a gamble on Saarloos. Even if the projections don't say so.

  12. #11
    Member harangatang's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Posts
    1,538

    Re: Weaver signed

    Quote Originally Posted by Z-Fly View Post
    JoJo, don't take me the wrong way for calling you out, but come on. Looking at the given salarys, you would rather have Weaver rather than sarloos? I know this is somewhat putting words into your mouth. I don't believe you have ever directly said this.

    Your stats and projections are somewhat impressive. But even after looking at all your given info, I would still rather have Sarloos.

    If they both had equal salarys, then I think I would agree, I would rather have Dream Weaver. But that simply isn't the case.
    A further look shows the incompleteness of the argument. All it is are projections, I mean Homer Bailey has projections for next year and that doesn't even mean he'll pitch in the big leagues at all.

  13. #12
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Re: Weaver signed

    When you compare lifetime basic numbers Weaver doesn't come out too shabby. Of course, his numbers are helped out by a great 2002 mixed in with his many mediocre years.

    Code:
         SPLIT       G   IP      H    R   HR   BB   SO   W   L   Sv  WHIP  BAA   ERA 
    Kirk Saarloos   123 440.0   501  248  50   163  212  27  25  2   1.51  .292  4.79 
    Jeff Weaver     257 1568.0  1672 854  192  428  1044 86  101 2   1.34  .273  4.58 
    League Average Per BP                                            1.40        4.49
    But when you look at the past two years it's a little different picture.


    Code:
             SEASON G  GS IP     H  R   ER  HR BB SO  W  L  ERA 
    Saarloos 2005   29 27 159.2 170 75  74  11 54 53  10 9  4.17 
    Weaver 	 2005 	34 34 224.0 220 111 105 35 43 157 14 11 4.22 
    
                     G  GS IP     H   R  ER  HR BB SO  W L  ERA 
    Saarloos 2006    35 16 121.1 149 70  64  19 53 52  7 7  4.75 
    Weaver   2006 -- 31 31 172.0 213 117 110 34 47 107 8 14 5.76

    Then mix in this....

    Code:
                             GB%     K/BF   
    Jeff Weaver             38.99%  13.90%   
    Kirk Saarloos           54.00%   9.49%
    Saarloos only strikes out 9.49% of the batters he faces while Weaver has the edge at nearly 14%. However. Saarloos has a full 15 percentage point edge in inducing ground balls. And if you belive the numbers referenced in this piece, groundballs have a far lower run impact than line drives and outfield flies. If Kirky can keep the ball on the ground, it plays into having the Gonzo, Phillips and Not-Griffey up the middle defense strategy.

    Pitchers of Weaver's ilk are described as "This is the quadrant that you want to avoid. It is inhabited by some of the worst starters in the game". Not exactly glowing praise. Far fewer of his balls would be on the ground and in GABP that can be deadly. Mix in his realative inablity to miss bats and it would get ugly fast. Further mix in a $7m price differental and you would have Milton V 2.0

    Weaver has to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground to be successfull. He had 157K/224IP (69%) in 2005, but decreased to 107K/172IP (62%) in 2006. But in all fairness, I'm only looking at 2 years.

    Saarloos has to keep his walk rates under controll for his brand of pitching to be successfull. He had 54BB/159IP in 2005 (34.5%) but increased to 53BB/121 in 2006 (43.8%). Of course, I'm only looking at 2 years.

    Just food for thought.....
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 01-26-2007 at 11:18 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  14. #13
    Member harangatang's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Posts
    1,538

    Re: Weaver signed

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    When you compare lifetime basic numbers Weaver doesn't come out too shabby. Of course, his numbers are helped out by a great 2002 mixed in with his many mediocre years.

    Code:
         SPLIT       G   IP      H    R   HR   BB   SO   W   L   Sv  WHIP  BAA   ERA 
    Kirk Saarloos   123 440.0   501  248  50   163  212  27  25  2   1.51  .292  4.79 
    Jeff Weaver     257 1568.0  1672 854  192  428  1044 86  101 2   1.34  .273  4.58 
    League Average Per BP                                            1.40        4.49
    But when you look at the past two years it's a little different picture.


    Code:
             SEASON G  GS IP     H  R   ER  HR BB SO  W  L  ERA 
    Saarloos 2005   29 27 159.2 170 75  74  11 54 53  10 9  4.17 
    Weaver 	 2005 	34 34 224.0 220 111 105 35 43 157 14 11 4.22 
    
                     G  GS IP     H   R  ER  HR BB SO  W L  ERA 
    Saarloos 2006    35 16 121.1 149 70  64  19 53 52  7 7  4.75 
    Weaver   2006 -- 31 31 172.0 213 117 110 34 47 107 8 14 5.76

    Then mix in this....

    Code:
                             GB%     K/BF   
    Jeff Weaver             38.99%  13.90%   
    Kirk Saarloos           54.00%   9.49%
    Saarloos only strikes out 9.49% of the batters he faces while Weaver has the edge at nearly 14%. However. Saarloos has a full 15 percentage point edge in inducing ground balls. And if you belive the numbers referenced in this piece, groundballs have a far lower run impact than line drives and outfield flies. If Kirky can keep the ball on the ground, it plays into having the Gonzo, Phillips and Not-Griffey up the middle defense strategy.

    Pitchers of Weaver's ilk are described as "This is the quadrant that you want to avoid. It is inhabited by some of the worst starters in the game". Not exactly glowing praise. Far fewer of his balls would be on the ground and in GABP that can be deadly. Mix in his realative inablity to miss bats and it would get ugly fast. Further mix in a $7m price differental and you would have Milton V 2.0

    Weaver has to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground to be successfull. He had 157K/224IP (69%) in 2005, but decreased to 107K/172IP (62%) in 2006. But in all fairness, I'm only looking at 2 years.

    Saarloos has to keep his walk rates under controll for his brand of pitching to be successfull. He had 54BB/159IP in 2005 (34.5%) but increased to 53BB/121 in 2006 (43.8%). Of course, I'm only looking at 2 years.

    Just food for thought.....
    I totally agree with you that the sample size for Weaver is bigger than for Saarloos. But we already know what Weaver brings to table in that if he's on in the past few years he's league average. With Saarloos even though the sample size is smaller I think it provides more hope. I'm almost sure the Reds are going to give the guy every opportunity to succeed. He put up above league average numbers in 2005 in the AL when he had a full-time job starting. I think the strikeout thing becomes irrelevant because the styles of pitchers are totally different. If Saarloos was more of a power pitcher and had the same amount of strikeouts than that would be a completely legitimate point. Personally I don't care how many batters a pitcher strikes out as long they are successful. Over the past 2 years Saarloos has shown that even though he may not strikeout as many batters as Weaver, he has been more successful.

  15. #14
    Member Phhhl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    3,893

    Re: Weaver signed

    After watching Duncan mold the crap he was handed into a world championship staff last year, I have to hope that Pole can turn Plebians like Sarloos and Lohse into Centurians. I certainly wouldn't feel any better about Weaver making that transition than those guys. Lohse, in particular, has at least as live an arm as Weaver. Sarloos seems to have excellent movement when he is "on". Considering the money tossed around to some of these guys this winter, our rotation isn't shaping up bad at all.

  16. #15
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Re: Weaver signed

    Quote Originally Posted by harangatang View Post
    I totally agree with you that the sample size for Weaver is bigger than for Saarloos. But we already know what Weaver brings to table in that if he's on in the past few years he's league average.

    With Saarloos even though the sample size is smaller I think it provides more hope. I'm almost sure the Reds are going to give the guy every opportunity to succeed. I think the strikeout thing becomes irrelevant because the styles of pitchers are totally different.
    Oh, I agree with you. I like the Saarloos move. I don't think he's going to be the next Nolen Ryan but I think he may be able to be a reasonably priced decent starter. Weaver was able to piece togther something in St Louis but I highly doubt he's going to maintain it.

    I agree about the strike out thing too. That's why I posted how signigicantly higher Saarloos GB% is over Weaver's. They approach pitching different. Weaver's method ranks him amoung other pitchers like Milton, Parez, Ortiz, and Woody Williams. Saarloos style ranks him with pitchers like Westbrook, Maddux, Glavine and Lowe. I know which list I'd rather be on.

    I'm not saying Saarloos aproaches being on their tallent level, but his style of pitching is the same style employed by those guys. Assuming (and I know thats a big IF) he can induce a bunch of GB's, and the Gonzo, Phillips and Not-Griffey defense works as planned, he may be able to give the Reds some decent pitching starts.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25