Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

[edabbs44]

My chat isn't working.

[dougdirt]

M2, the chats went private last year. Rather disappointing, but I guess thats how they make their money. For me, I pick up the magazine at the news stands every now and again when there is something worth reading, but its not worth getting the subscription for to just read the Reds content.

[M2]

Seems like the guy who's doing the chat doesn't know to hit the refresh button with any frequency. It was nearly 30 minutes before the first set of answers appeared.

Got to admit I'm really unimpressed by Cooper. Here's some of his impenetrable logic:

"The Reds have a number of relievers in Double-ATriple-A who could end up helping out the bullpen in the not-so-distant future." Yet, it seems none of these relievers merit mention in the top 30 of a thin system. That's right, he acknowledges that the team has some more advanced relievers who'll probably be useful major league pitchers yet he ranks them below others (some of whom he acknowledges probably won't be useful major league contributors).

[jmcclain19]

Well - he did answer a bunch of mine so far

Q: Josh from Phoenix asks:
Adam Rosales - Flash in the pan or was 2006 just a slight stumble?

A: J.J. Cooper: Maybe not a flash in the pan, but he has a long road to go to get back to where he was heading into last season. The Reds all of a sudden have a number of SS prospects (Janish, Loo and Valaika), so Rosales will have to fight just to get ABs at shortstop. Unless he switches positions or becomes more of a utility infielder it's hard to see how he'll get 450 ABs at Low A Dayton or high A Sarasota this year. Rosales' 2006 was largely lost because of injuries, but he'll now be a 23-year-old trying to succeed for the first time in full season ball. Because of his age he doesn't have as many second chances as a 20-year-old.



Q: Josh from Phoenix asks:
You rated Joey Votto as the top Defensive 1B in the Southern League last year - yet claim he's still "raw" at first? Is the mixed messages a product of an extremely weak Southern League 1B class or was that just picking nits?

A: J.J. Cooper: The league best tools lists are based largely on talking to managers and some scouts, which can mean that a guy with some athleticism at 1B (like Votto) can make a spectacular play or two over a three-game series that will stick in a manager's head. Over a full season the Reds saw some impressive things from him, but they also don't think he's really ready defensively to play in the majors right now.



Q: Josh from Phoenix asks:
Does Johnny Cueto ceiling put him right about at a Right handed Tom Gordon?

A: J.J. Cooper: It's hard not to think of Gordon because he's one of the patron saints of short righthanders. But Cueto's stuff is different than Gordon's. Gordon's curveball was an otherworldly pitch, one of those true 12-to-6ers that is scary to watch. Cueto has good stuff, but no pitch that's plus-plus like Gordon's curve was.



Q: Josh from Phoenix asks:
So in 2006 the Reds drafted a 1st round pick who can't hit and a 2nd round pick who can't locate his fastball. How's that an improvement over previous years?

A: J.J. Cooper: It's too early to say that Stubbs can't hit. And it's too early to say that Watson can't locate his fastball. The Reds were aware that they were rolling the dice somewhat with Stubbs. Everyone thinks he'll be able to play an outstanding center field and hit for power. As the Reds see it, if he doesn't cut down the strikeouts he'll still be a useful major leaguer and if he does, he could be a star. It's a risky pick, but then it wasn't an outlandish risk considering the talent pool in last year's draft. Watson will likely be a reliever, but the Reds took him with the hope that he'll be able to move quickly through the system.



Q: Josh from Phoenix asks:
Any chance Richie Gardner & Thomas Pauly return to anywhere in the ballpark of their former prospect status in 2007?

A: J.J. Cooper: I just heard a report that Gardner is healthy, but in both cases it's a long road to get back to where they were. There are a lot more pitchers who never recovered fully from shoulder injuries than ones who make it back to their previous success. Both need to show that they can stay healthy after long layoffs before we can even think about them returning to their previous prospect status.

[Benihana]

I could pretty much guarantee you that 2 of Dunn, Harang and Arroyo won't be here in 2010.

I don't really understand why this is the case. Arroyo might be gone due to his lack of interest in making Cincinnati his home, but with Griffey and other veterans coming off the books (Milton, etc.) there really is no reason why they couldnt resign Harang and Dunn for the long term. I agree a lot of those listed on Shaknb8k's lineup won't be in the lineup in 2010, but more for unforseen reasons (trades, injuries, flameouts, FA signings) than for lack of funds to sign them. I would lock Harang up right now. Then I would see how the first half of the year goes, and assuming he does well try to secure Brandon Phillips. Everybody else (minus Arroyo) on that list is signed through 2010 I believe, so there is really not too much to worry about. Maybe they get a SS (although I still think BP can play SS) and a C through trades or free agency, along with perhaps a #3 veteran starter (I doubt Arroyo will be around). I don't think you can count on both Cueto and Wood being reliable major league starters, but otherwise, I really like that squad for 2010!!

[M2]

Credit where it's due, from Cooper - "A lot of teams, including Cincy, will likely be regretting letting Lincecum go."

[edabbs44]

Credit where it's due, from Cooper - "A lot of teams, including Cincy, will likely be regretting letting Lincecum go."

That was my question...

[Triples]

Well their list is a lot like my list, and the Redszone community list. They have scouts and contacts with scouts that help them with their information gathering and the writers themselves see a lot of baseball as well.

Well...I understand that is how BA indicates that they make their predictions. However, BA is a tad bit different than a free web blog. BA is holding it's self out as the expert as a means to make a $$ (nothing wrong with making a few bucks) from subscribers while I suspect that most of the suscribers to Redszone are well educated amatuers or at least they aren't making a living off the information/opinions they put on this website as a source of entertainment. Please note that I'm not even debating whether their list is right or wrong. I just wonder why they would go so far out on a limb with guys that are so unproven and therefore leave themselves open to criticism a year to two from now.

For the sake of debate here are the last 3 years of 10 tens from BA

2006 2005 2004
1. Homer Bailey, Homer Bailey Homer Bailey
2. Jay Bruce, Jay Bruce Edwin Encarnacion
3. Joey Votto, Travis Wood Richie Gardner
4. Johnny Cueto, BJ Szymanski Joey Votto
5. Drew Stubbs, Chris Denorfia BJ Szymanski
6. Travis Woods, Rafael Gonzalez Thomas Pauley
7. Sean Watson, Miguel Perez Todd Coffey
8. Milton Loo, Tyler Pelland William Bergolla
9. Paul Janish, Joey Votto Tyler Pelland
10. Chris Valaika, Travis Chick Paul Janish

I find it interest how many of their picks from just the last two years are no longer on the 06 list (save the few that are in now in the majors). I don't have the information nor the time to check, but it would be interesting to see how many of the current Reds 25 man roster were ever on the BA top ten list. Maybe I would feel differently if BA were not so pragmatic about their predictions. Then again maybe I should lighten up...I have to remember were dealing with an business where doing it right 33% of the time could put you in the HOF.

[M2]

That was my question...

Good question.

Of course in defending the Stubbs pick in one of jmc's questions, Cooper said, "It's a risky pick, but then it wasn't an outlandish risk considering the talent pool in last year's draft."

So Stubbs wasn't an outlandish risk unless of course you acknowledge the existence of Tim Lincecum? Or maybe Bill Rowell and Chris Marrero too.

[Red Leader]

Yeah, it kind of sucks.

I put a lot of time into last year's amateur draft doing research, taking part in the mock draft on RZ, etc. I loved Lincecum. Then, to see the Reds pass on him, it sucked. Somehow, I just knew that they wouldn't pick him.

[jmcclain19]

Good question.

Of course in defending the Stubbs pick in one of jmc's questions, Cooper said, "It's a risky pick, but then it wasn't an outlandish risk considering the talent pool in last year's draft."

So Stubbs wasn't an outlandish risk unless of course you acknowledge the existence of Tim Lincecum? Or maybe Bill Rowell and Chris Marrero too.

I think you had some of the waffling last year when you asked about the hypocritical stance they took on Miguel Perez compared to other guys that were ranked lower than him.

JJ seems to waffle quite a bit every year on here.

I wonder how much input they have, or do they just go straight off of what the team tells them.

They'll deny it vehemetly that they aren't independent, but I really find that hard to believe their isn't a deferment going on there with regard to who is considered a prospect or not.

[jmcclain19]

Yeah, it kind of sucks.

I put a lot of time into last year's amateur draft doing research, taking part in the mock draft on RZ, etc. I loved Lincecum. Then, to see the Reds pass on him, it sucked. Somehow, I just knew that they wouldn't pick him.

When the Giants rotation is Matt Cain, Noah Lowry, Tim Lincecum & Barry Zito for the next four-five years, there will be all kinds of regrets going on in the NL.

And also about Lincecum - do you see a heavy dose of irony that one guy the Reds and BA is pushing hard as a future stud - Johnny Cueto, is a hard throwing short right hander - and yet the Reds deemed it necessary to pass over a potentially better risk short righthander to take a OF who can't hit?

[dougdirt]

Yeah, it kind of sucks.

I put a lot of time into last year's amateur draft doing research, taking part in the mock draft on RZ, etc. I loved Lincecum. Then, to see the Reds pass on him, it sucked. Somehow, I just knew that they wouldn't pick him.

I am with you, to an extent. I wanted anyone instead of Stubbs due to the concerns with his bat. The guy I did want more than anyone who was available at our pick was Billy Rowell though. Lincecum still worries me with his delivery and size. His stuff is ridiculous, but he is one pitch away from losing that, and with his delivery, I think its more than likely to come.

[Kc61]

For those Redszoners who complain bitterly whenever the Reds draft high schoolers, notice how many of the top ten -- including most of the "impact" prospects -- come from high school programs or other non-college sources. I wouldn't mind seeing another top pick from high school with Bailey or Bruce type upside.

[edabbs44]

For those Redszoners who complain bitterly whenever the Reds draft high schoolers, notice how many of the top ten -- including most of the "impact" prospects -- come from high school programs or other non-college sources. I wouldn't mind seeing another top pick from high school with Bailey or Bruce type upside.

I want the best college pitcher on the board...someone who will be ready in 2-3 years. No sense waiting when the clock will be ticking on Harang and Homer.