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Thread: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

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    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Well today's the day we've all been waiting for boys and girls - Baseball America will spend the afternoon chatting about the merits of the Reds minor league system.

    Without breaking the "pay" content rule - here is the top 10 with a quick synopsis of what was written by the BA staff.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/onlin...es/263238.html

    1. Homer Bailey
    Good - Best stuff in the minors. Fastball's late life makes it seem like it has an extra gear. Has two curveballs 12-6 & 11-5 versions both excellent pitches. Changeup is improved.
    Bad - Most negative comments are just nitpicking. Needs to work on command and (I didn't make this up) work on being a hitter.
    2. Jay Bruce
    Good - One of the best hitters in the minors. Slightly above average speed. He's a "Gamer"
    Bad - Needs to work on plate discipline.
    3. Joey Votto
    Good - Has power to all fields. Average Speed. Has a discerning batting eye.
    Bad - Still raw at first base. Struggles against Southpaws at the plate.
    4. Johnny Cueto
    Good - Easy 3/4 delivery w/ fastball that can touch 96. Soto taught him a changeup that is now a major league average pitch. Also has a nasty slider.
    Bad - Size doesn't bode well for future. Likes to challenge up in the zone which he'll get punished for at higher levels.
    5. Drew Stubbs
    Good - Dale Murphy-esq. Huge power, excellent speed & Gold Glove defense. Average arm
    Bad - Can't really hit. Long Swing. Struggles to make contact & smart pitchers in rookie ball took advantage of him.
    6. Travis Wood
    Good - Probably has best changeup in the minors. Fastball went from 93-94 in HS to 87-91 in minors.
    Bad - Needs to add strength, get his velocity back. Struggles with his curve.
    7. Sean Watson
    Good - Has a plus fastball that can top 95 & a plus knuckle curve in the 85mph range.
    Bad - Can't locate fastball. No change up & slider is below average.
    8. Milton Loo
    Good - Five tool potential. Hits for average and has potential for power. Plus speed with strong arm.
    Bad - Can't stay healthy. Hasn't shown he can drive the ball w/ wood yet.
    9. Paul Janish
    Good - Major league defensive SS w/ excellent footwork & positioning. Is learning to use entire field as a hitter. He's a "leader".
    Bad - No real power. Contact only hitter. Bottom of the order type of player.
    10. Chris Valaika
    Good - Spray hitter. Bobby Crosby-esq. Gap power & strong arm.
    Bad - Slow with limited range at SS. A future 2B. With Loo at SS at Dayton in 07, will probably skip ahead to Sarasota.


    I'll do this just like I have in previous years. If any non BA subscribers want to get some questions in - post them here and I'll send them along. No guarantees - as it's totally random whether or not they get answered or not.

    Chat starts at 3pm EST.
    Last edited by jmcclain19; 01-29-2007 at 02:35 AM.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    You are on top of it....

    Yeah, I set my alarm to wake me up 15 minutes early to go over the list, but thanks to you I can now enjoy 15 more minutes of sleep in the morning.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    As for the comments, it says a lot about Travis Wood being 19 years old and possibly having the best change up in the minor leagues.... if he can gain a little zip back on his fastball, I really think he will shoot up prospect lists.

    Votto is raw at first base? Didnt BA rank him as the best defensive first baseman in the league?

    I have heard different things about Watsons slider, so I am not sure what to think completely on him.

    Overall I would say their list seems roughly like what I would have mine look like.

  5. #4
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Votto is raw at first base? Didnt BA rank him as the best defensive first baseman in the league?
    I wouldn't take Votto's winning the best defensive 1st baseman award too highly. That could just be the prettiest girl at the Ugly Convention. They pretty much tagged his being a former catcher to him being raw - and went on to point out that all of the aspects, his footwork, throws & how he goes into the hole all as needing work. But he's athletic enough to work thru it.

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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    12-6 & 11-5

    The 2 key numbers. Bailey already has 4 pitches and we just didn't pay attention

    I think the 11-5 is what gives him consistancy trouble.

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    Member chicoruiz's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    I'd like to hear their opinion on Adam Rosales. Were his bad stats after his promotion due to the level of competition or this hand injury we're hearing about?
    "In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Watson's pic looks like he'd be better as a pulling guard.

  9. #8
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    So, in BAs opinion, we got a CFer in the 1st round last year who can't hit and a pitcher in the 2nd who can't locate his fastball.

    Uh oh.

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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    8. Milton Loo
    Good - Five tool potential. Hits for average and has potential for power. Plus speed with strong arm.
    Bad - Can't stay healthy. Hasn't shown he can drive the ball w/ wood yet.
    So is he never going to drive the ball w/ a wood bat? I don't know when the last time he hit with metal. Three years ago? I think they might have gotten confused that he hit with wood in college.

  11. #10
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    I think you are right Aves....now while it was just 43 at bats in rookie ball, he did slug .581, while having a line drive 15.8% of the time (for comparison Jay Bruce had a 15.5% line drive rate)

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    Ya can't teach speed... Triples's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    2. Jay Bruce
    Good - One of the best hitters in the minors. Slightly above average speed. He's a "Gamer"
    Bad - Needs to work on plate discipline.

    5. Drew Stubbs
    Good - Dale Murphy-esq. Huge power, excellent speed & Gold Glove defense. Average arm
    Bad - Can't really hit. Long Swing. Struggles to make contact & smart pitchers in rookie ball took advantage of him.

    7. Sean Watson
    Good - Has a plus fastball that can top 95 & a plus knuckle curve in the 85mph range.
    Bad - Can't locate fastball. No change up & slider is below average.

    8. Milton Loo
    Good - Five tool potential. Hits for average and has potential for power. Plus speed with strong arm.
    Bad - Can't stay healthy. Hasn't shown he can drive the ball w/ wood yet.

    10. Chris Valaika
    Good - Spray hitter. Bobby Crosby-esq. Gap power & strong arm.
    Bad - Slow with limited range at SS. A future 2B. With Loo at SS at Dayton in 07, will probably skip ahead to Sarasota.

    I don't know much about these players other than what I see on websites like this one or by looking at the stats. So I want to be clear that my comments are not about them nor am I deriding their ability.

    I simply find it curious that BA continues to put players on their top ten list who have not played above low A. With the exception of players like Jay Bruce, who seem to be well ahead of their peers, it seems like BA would not want to make any more BJ Symanski mistakes.

    Regardless of a player's ceiling coming out of college or highschool, it seems that it would be prudent to wait to see how these players perform when they get to a 142 game schedule, with higher caliber competition and greater expectations/pressure before labeling them as a top ten prospect. It really makes me wonder how BA, who by their own estimation have their finger on the pulse of baseball, actually creates these rankings. Do they really make them based on what the front office and real high level scouts tell them? Or do they say what will sell the most $62 website subscriptions
    Last edited by Triples; 01-29-2007 at 12:07 PM. Reason: misspelled word

  13. #12
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Here's a few I submitted already

    Adam Rosales - Flash in the pan or was 2006 just a slight stumble?

    You rated Joey Votto as the top Defensive 1B in the Southern League last year - yet claim he's still "raw" at first? Is the mixed messages a product of an extremely weak Southern League 1B class or was that just picking nits?

    Does Johnny Cueto ceiling put him right about at a Right handed Tom Gordon?

    How close did Calvin Medlock, still one of the Reds top minor league performers three seasons going, come to making the Top 10?

    So in 2006 the Reds drafted a 1st round pick who can't hit and a 2nd round pick who can't locate his fastball. How's that an improvement over previous years?

    Any chance Richie Gardner & Thomas Pauly return to anywhere in the ballpark of their former prospect status in 2007?

    Did Jared Burton get any discussion about being in the Top 10. What are his chances of sticking on the 25 man come April 1st?

  14. #13
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    triples.... I have no idea what you were trying to say in your post....

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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Doug, where do you get the LD% rates from for MiL'ers?

  16. #15
    Ya can't teach speed... Triples's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Dougdirt: Sorry I hit the send button prematurely. I was editing the post as you put up your message. I think it will make more sense now.


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