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Thread: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

  1. #46
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    For those Redszoners who complain bitterly whenever the Reds draft high schoolers, notice how many of the top ten -- including most of the "impact" prospects -- come from high school programs or other non-college sources. I wouldn't mind seeing another top pick from high school with Bailey or Bruce type upside.
    I liked the Bruce pick - but Homer was the Reds equivelent of winning the lottery. The Brewers may have even saved the Reds from themselves by taking Mark Rogers two picks earlier.

    And I'm personally glad the Reds didn't take Bill Rowell. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus wrote of him this offseason that he's going to be a DH playing 1b very soon - probably next year if not the year after. Last thing the Reds need is a Jack Cust type wandering the system without a home.

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  3. #47
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    When Andrew Miller went off the board I wanted Lincecum or Bard. The Reds picked Stubbs. To see them pass over both Lincecum and Bard pained me.
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  4. #48
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Doug's mancrush got a mention

    Q: Mike from Boston asks:
    There's been a lot of talk about the lack of depth in the Reds system. Are there are sleeper starters that bear watching beyond Bailey, Cueto and Wood?

    A: J.J. Cooper: I'll throw one out -- Josh Ravin was very impressive in his first pro season. The former Chatsworth High product has a good body and an advanced approach. It wouldn't be a surprise if he has a breakthrough season in Dayton this year.

  5. #49
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Hahaha I have no man crush... ok thats not true. But if I have to admit to one, its on Ken Griffey Jr.

    Seriously though I expect Ravin to open a lot of eyes next season.

  6. #50
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    The Reds certainly need guys like Ravin, Jordan Smith, Luis Montano and Brandon Rice to take steps forward. One of the things that's killed the Reds over the years is that the organization hasn't been able to turn up anything outside its top picks (and that's even been spotty).
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  7. #51
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    DanO and Krivisky are night and day when it comes to evaluating pitchers. Krivisky likes them big and tall. O'brien doesn't seem to care(basing on his Houston and short Cincy stint). It makes me wonder what Cueto's future is with the Reds or has he been "grandfather'd" in?

    Lincecum has his own risks, but Stubbs does as well. Sounds like to me, Krivsky gave Buckley some ground rules to follow and not drafting short pitchers was one of those rules. A guy like Bard doesn't have the "stuff" at that spot and he didn't fall to the low first round for nothing, the rest were to raw for the liking. So you are stuck really with Lincecum or Stubbs. Buckley had a easy decision though maybe one that you will regret or not regret in the future.

  8. #52
    Lover of Trivialities Doc. Scott's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    For those Redszoners who complain bitterly whenever the Reds draft high schoolers, notice how many of the top ten -- including most of the "impact" prospects -- come from high school programs or other non-college sources. I wouldn't mind seeing another top pick from high school with Bailey or Bruce type upside.
    It's been shown on a general basis that the best position players are most often HS picks. Pitchers, being somewhat more random, are better bets coming from the college ranks (since getting through three more years of the injury nexus is a good thing for a pitcher).

    In general, the only big no-nos for an expensive high pick are HS pitchers. Heap whatever plaudits you want on Homer Bailey, but he's succeeding against the odds so far.

  9. #53
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    You know, I'm not impressed with Stubbs, Watson, Wood-esp. with his much lower velocity and extreme effort, and Loo. I like Lecure much more than Watson. Fisher pitched about as well as Wood last year. I'm hoping Stubbs comes around, but the signs don't look good at all at this point.

    I've also heard that Gardner feels great and thinks this is the year he can work on getting back to form. Last year was just practice.

    Pauly, on the other hand, is probably done. He's had multiple shoulder problems and elbows problems.

    Wow, that's Pauly, Howington, Aramboles, Gillman, Gruler, Basham, and possibly Gardner that have all gone down because of injuries!!! Amazing!

  10. #54
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Daddy View Post
    You know, I'm not impressed with Stubbs, Watson, Wood-esp. with his much lower velocity and extreme effort, and Loo. I like Lecure much more than Watson. Fisher pitched about as well as Wood last year. I'm hoping Stubbs comes around, but the signs don't look good at all at this point.

    I've also heard that Gardner feels great and thinks this is the year he can work on getting back to form. Last year was just practice.

    Pauly, on the other hand, is probably done. He's had multiple shoulder problems and elbows problems.

    Wow, that's Pauly, Howington, Aramboles, Gillman, Gruler, Basham, and possibly Gardner that have all gone down because of injuries!!! Amazing!
    Fisher was also 4 years older than Travis Wood was last season. Wood being a lefty throwing in the low 90's is ok, but I expect some of his velocity to come back next season. Rumor has it the Reds worked on his delivery a bit, which caused the drop in velocity. Getting used to repeating it will help in getting some velocity back.

  11. #55
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes and no. In the minor leagues, I take most BABIP numbers with a grain of salt. Some hitters are just better than their competition and will put up really high BABIP numbers (Votto and his .371), but what is nice is to take a peak at their line drive percentage and see how it correlates with their BABIP.

    For example, Cameron Maybin (DET, OF) had a BABIP of .415 last season, but just a 9.6 Line drive percentage. Something smells ridiculously funny about that, and for that reason I think he is currently one of the most overrated prospects in the game. Jay Bruce had a .351 BABIP, and a line drive percentage of 15.5. When you look at the two side by side, something just is not right with it.
    It's all a matter of context with regard to minor league BABIP numbers. While Maybin put up an absurd .415 BABIP last season (even higher against LHPs!), he has a ton of other tools that have everyone else drooling. While he is not as naturally powerful as Bruce is and hit an unusually high number of groundballs, he has a chance to put up some good power numbers for a CF. I had the pleasure of talking with a few people who are familiar with the MWL following this past season. All of them were head over heels for the guy.

    Anyways, there are a few other things I like about the BABIP numbers on that site. For one, they have it for pitchers. Granted, those numbers are also subject to the same fluctuations, but it can really help in determining if a guy was really lucky or unlucky in a given year. The fact that Homer dominated as well as he did in AA while posting a .307 BABIP there is reeeeeeeeeeally encouraging for him.

    Second, those numbers can help weed out overrated players in certain circumstances. In following the Peoria Chiefs this year, Mark Reed's name was brought up on a few occasions by a variety of people familiar with baseball, especially considering his brother Jeremy was well-hyped during his days as a White Sox prospect. Mark put up decidedly mediocre numbers (.254/.315/.306), which led some people to believe that he had an unlucky year and would start developing better pitch recognition skills and power.

    However, his BABIP was .327 (with halfway decent LD% numbers). The guy was abnormally lucky and still couldn't hit above .255. There's something a little bit wrong with that (along with the mediocre IsoD and power numbers).

  12. #56
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    [QUOTE=Red Daddy;1234176]You know, I'm not impressed with Stubbs, Watson, Wood-esp. with his much lower velocity and extreme effort

    Wood doesn't have a max effort delivery. The reason why his velocity 'dropped' was because he toned it down to what he really throws. Velocity is overrated for a lefty as well.

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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Did Wood tone it done or just start throwing a two seam fastball to get more sink. He still might be able to hit 95 mph with a four seam fastball.

  14. #58
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis View Post
    Wood doesn't have a max effort delivery. The reason why his velocity 'dropped' was because he toned it down to what he really throws. Velocity is overrated for a lefty as well.
    Velocity is especially overrated when you can throw a great change. Wood might only come in at 89-91, but if he's throwing a change routinely at sub-80, he should be able to baffle hitters at any level.

    Throwing hard is fantastic, but velocity differential can make up a lot of ground when it's coupled with good control.
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  15. #59
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Doc. Scott View Post
    It's been shown on a general basis that the best position players are most often HS picks. Pitchers, being somewhat more random, are better bets coming from the college ranks (since getting through three more years of the injury nexus is a good thing for a pitcher).

    In general, the only big no-nos for an expensive high pick are HS pitchers. Heap whatever plaudits you want on Homer Bailey, but he's succeeding against the odds so far.
    And he's still very, very young. I think some of us tend to forget that Bailey is not yet three years out of high school. He's not even old enough to drink yet.

    I'm a proponent of wariness in the way of high school pitchers except in very extreme cases. Bailey may yet prove to be an exception, but I think we should wait until he pitches in a single major-league game to make that decision. A lot of very talented HS pitchers have no problem being phenoms for a few years. It's longevity that's the question. The Reds, at least, have kept Bailey on pitch counts and on a strict minor league path for the most part and I really think a team has no choice but to do that with a HS pitcher for any hope of long-term security. Pointing to the Reds farm system as an exemplifier of HS players having success holds no validity to me until they're OUT of the farm system.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Velocity is especially overrated when you can throw a great change. Wood might only come in at 89-91, but if he's throwing a change routinely at sub-80, he should be able to baffle hitters at any level.

    Throwing hard is fantastic, but velocity differential can make up a lot of ground when it's coupled with good control.
    Good points. These are some of the reasons that I am optimistic about his potential. Since he has chucked the ball at 93-94 mph at one time in his life, it makes me think that with better understanding of conditioning and with the strength that will come with maturity, he will be able to hit those speeds when he needs to. The big thing is that he doesn't overthrow when he is young - that is a big injury factor.


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