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Thread: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

  1. #61
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Except Molina had a minor league OPS 63 points higher than Perez. At Perez's age, Molina was acquitting himself well in AAA instead of bombing out in AA.
    Good point. I didn't know Molina was atleast acceptable in AAA.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Did Wood tone it done or just start throwing a two seam fastball to get more sink. He still might be able to hit 95 mph with a four seam fastball.
    He throws a cutter, but I'm sure he didn't drop the 4-seamer.

    Wood's delivery was definitely toned down last year. When you compared his draft video to what he looked like in Dayton, it's kind of like the difference between watching Oswalt and Glavine. My guess is that he could still reach 94-95 if he wanted to. It'd make sense if he had a sore arm or something, but there's really no logical reason for him to lose 3-5MPH off his fastball in one offseason. It'll be interesting to see if he can regain that explosiveness without sacrificing his mechanics and consistency.

    I just got the Prospect Handbook today. I was really impressed until I saw James Avery at #14. Somebody forgot to do their homework on that one, but other than that, it's got some pretty good info. Just to make Doug happy, they said Ravin was in fact throwing 94-96 last year with advanced secondary pitches. The one thing I found odd was that they had Shafer as having the best slider in the org. Maybe I'm wrong, but that doesn't say much for Cueto does it?

  4. #63
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Here's what I like about Wood's 2006 campaign:

    - He threw 140 IP and stayed healthy
    - He held opponents to a .215 BA
    - Despite the drop in velocity he maintained an 8.55 K/9

    Here's what I didn't like about Wood's 2006 campaign:

    - His HR/9 swelled to 0.90
    - His control didn't seem to improve at all

    Here's the question I've got about his curve:

    How long before he scraps it and tries a slider?
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  5. #64
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post

    Here's the question I've got about his curve:

    How long before he scraps it and tries a slider?
    Hopefully long enough that he starts throwing it under very close professional supervision. If he has a cutter, then I would just stick with that. A lot less stress on the 'bow.

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    His FB/CH combo might be good enough to get away with those 3 pitches, and throw a curve once an inning just to keep hitters aware of it.

  6. #65
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    Hopefully long enough that he starts throwing it under very close professional supervision. If he has a cutter, then I would just stick with that. A lot less stress on the 'bow.

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    His FB/CH combo might be good enough to get away with those 3 pitches, and throw a curve once an inning just to keep hitters aware of it.
    Good point, though I suppose it depends on the quality of his cutter. Though I'm under the impression that guys who throw a cutter tend to gravitate toward the slider when they want to throw something with a bigger break.
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  7. #66
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    His FB/CH combo might be good enough to get away with those 3 pitches, and throw a curve once an inning just to keep hitters aware of it.
    You could say the same thing about a slider -- developing it doesn't mean he has to use it a lot. Show it early in the game, then fall back to changing speeds and location to make outs.

    Wood is an intruiging prospect -- I see him as the kind of guy who will lose K rate as he develops, but maintain his ERA and OPS-A. Someone who changes speeds as effectively as he does will induce a lot of bad contact in place of strikeouts, especially as the hitters he faces become more developed.

    Having a slider, or any breaking ball to keep hitters off balance, will only aid him, even if it is rarely thrown.
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  8. #67
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    You could say the same thing about a slider -- developing it doesn't mean he has to use it a lot. Show it early in the game, then fall back to changing speeds and location to make outs.

    Wood is an intruiging prospect -- I see him as the kind of guy who will lose K rate as he develops, but maintain his ERA and OPS-A. Someone who changes speeds as effectively as he does will induce a lot of bad contact in place of strikeouts, especially as the hitters he faces become more developed.

    Having a slider, or any breaking ball to keep hitters off balance, will only aid him, even if it is rarely thrown.
    Do you see him more in the Tom Glavine mold? Someone who lives on the corners and deceives with his offspeed pitch (changeup)? I'm not sure if Wood is ever going to blow people away with his fastball, although if he occasionally switches things up and pitches his fastball off of his changeup, I'm guessing even at 90 that's going to look pretty quick and might sneak past some hitters. Just the way you described him in that post above reminded me of Tom Glavine for some reason and I had never really thought of that comp before...
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Though I'm under the impression that guys who throw a cutter tend to gravitate toward the slider when they want to throw something with a bigger break.
    I never thought of that before. Isn't a cutter basically just a slider thrown with less break and more velocity? I've never pitched before, but would it be realistic to think he could morph his cutter into a decent slider?

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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    I never thought of that before. Isn't a cutter basically just a slider thrown with less break and more velocity? I've never pitched before, but would it be realistic to think he could morph his cutter into a decent slider?
    That's the way I understand it. I'd figure a guy who has a working cutter and hasn't shown much feel for a curve would naturally gravitate toward the slider. It would give him different looks off a similar motion.
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    I believe the slider involves snapping your wrist and a cutter doesn't. More stress on the elbow -- I doubt the Reds let Wood go that way. A slowish curve is much easier on the arm. I hope sticks with it -- he's still very young and has plenty of time refine it.
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  12. #71
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    4. Johnny Cueto
    Good - Easy 3/4 delivery w/ fastball that can touch 96. Soto taught him a changeup that is now a major league average pitch. Also has a nasty slider.
    Bad - Size doesn't bode well for future. Likes to challenge up in the zone which he'll get punished for at higher levels.
    Isn't the size thing an old saw that doesn't hold true? Why is that such a negative, or is it not as much as BA might be making it out to be?
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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  13. #72
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Short pitchers usually have a hard time making it as starters in the big leagues. While there are exceptions like Oswalt, Pedro....they surely are not the rule.

  14. #73
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Short pitchers usually have a hard time making it as starters in the big leagues. While there are exceptions like Oswalt, Pedro....they surely are not the rule.
    And Tim Hudson and Greg Maddux. Jake Peavy's not the biggest guy either. There's a school of thought that with modern conditioning and nutrition that shorter guys can now get over the starter hurdle.
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  15. #74
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Leader View Post
    Do you see him more in the Tom Glavine mold? Someone who lives on the corners and deceives with his offspeed pitch (changeup)? I'm not sure if Wood is ever going to blow people away with his fastball, although if he occasionally switches things up and pitches his fastball off of his changeup, I'm guessing even at 90 that's going to look pretty quick and might sneak past some hitters. Just the way you described him in that post above reminded me of Tom Glavine for some reason and I had never really thought of that comp before...
    Glavine was a master at spotting the baseball exactly where he wanted it -- I'd love to see Wood develop that kind of proficency at making his pitch, but I'm not going to hold my breath hoping that he turns into the next Tom Glavine. Having said that, I think he is a really good comp for Wood right now if he continues to pitch at his current velocity range. What will really determine Wood's fate is the ability to throw that 3rd pitch every so often to cross up the hitter. You can get a lot of mileage off velocity differential, but at some point you've gotta give hitters a different choice than A or B to keep them honest -- especially as a starter. It doesn't have to be a great curveball or slider, just enough of one that gives the hitter a different look (spin) and will lock them up when they're looking fastball or change.

    The key to all of this is him staying healthy and being able to throw easily at 88-91 -- not straining to get it up there and sacraficing control in the process. Part of what ruins pitchers coming back on surgery (especially guys like Claussen) isn't so much that they don't recover all their velocity, its that they have to overexert to get back to the level where they once threw easily. That overexertion, I think, leads to control problems and contributes to their being hit around. There's a huge difference, IMO, between a healthy 88-91 and a recovered 88-91 in terms of what else the pitcher is free to do.

    Of course, I'm no scout or medical expert, so take my opinion with a Sams Club crate of salt.
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  16. #75
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America debuts Reds Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Isn't the size thing an old saw that doesn't hold true? Why is that such a negative, or is it not as much as BA might be making it out to be?
    I believe somebody posted research a few weeks back on this. The gist of it was that while shorter righties had similar ceilings in terms of performance, they didn't last as long career-wise.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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