Originally Posted by
edabbs44
He might know what he's talking about...he ranked Stubbs 16th in last year's draft and Lincecum 4th.
1. Andrew Miller, LHP, University of North Carolina
Year School ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO Opp. BA K %
2006 North Carolina 2.26 103.2 82 40 26 1 35 108 .217 26%
2006 Chatham 1.65 49.0 22 11 9 1 23 66 .133 34%
2005 North Carolina 2.98 96.2 78 45 32 4 52 104 .230 25%
The consensus No. 1 pick, Miller has been on prospect radar screens since he was a senior in high school in Florida, when he flashed a 94-95 mph fastball but fell out of the first round due to his seven-figure bonus demands. Tampa Bay selected him in the third round in 2003 but failed to sign him -- another parting gift from Chuck LaMar -- which has worked out well for Miller, who finds himself as the top left-handed starter in a draft thin on first-round talents. Miller's fastball sits in the low 90s, but he can run it up to 96-97 as needed, and he complements it with a plus breaking ball that he sweeps to left-handers but throws with more of a two-plane break to right-handers. Because he's 6-foot-6, Miller's delivery also causes trouble for left-handed hitters. And he was easily the best groundball pitcher among college starter prospects this year, with nearly 80 percent of his field outs coming on the ground.
2. Luke Hochevar, RHP, Tennessee/Fort Worth Cats
Year School ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO Opp. BA K %
2006 Ft. Worth 2.38 22.2 20 7 6 1 11 34 .244 36%
2005 Tennessee 2.26 139,2 104 46 35 9 54 154 .204 27%
Hochevar was widely seen as a top-10 talent in the 2005 draft coming off his junior year at Tennessee, but he faded toward the end of that spring, walking four or more batters in six of his last 10 starts and seeing his velocity drop slightly. The decline in his performance combined with the perceived bonus demands of his "adviser," Scott Boras, led Hochevar to fall out of the first round all the way to the 40th pick, when the Dodgers took him with their first pick of the draft. That led to a sordid series of events around Labor Day when Hochevar switched agents, agreed to a bonus of nearly $3 million that was equivalent to slot money for a top five pick, then switched back to Boras, reneged on the deal, and blasted both the Dodgers and his erstwhile agent for somehow duping him into signing a bad contract. It's tough to sugarcoat Hochevar's actions; either he's a rube, or he's a weasel. But these sins are forgiven when your fastball is 94-97 and you throw two solid-to-plus breaking balls. There are rumors that Hochevar may go first overall, signing for roughly $4 million -- less than Miller is alleged to want, and more than Hochevar was offered by LA last year, making it a win for Boras.
3. Brad Lincoln, RHP, University of Houston
Year School ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO Opp. BA K %
2006 Houston 1.69 127.2 91 29 24 8 32 152 .198 32%
2006 Bourne 1.32 54.2 39 13 8 0 10 56 .196 26%
2005 Houston 4.76 102.0 124 71 54 12 25 106 .298 23%
Although Lincoln is considered short (6-foot) by baseball standards -- at least for a right-handed pitcher -- he's solid enough to also serve as a DH when he's not on the mound, finishing second in the Cape Cod League in homers and third in slugging percentage in 2005. That aside, Lincoln's going to make his money as a pitcher, with a solid low-90s fastball with good sink, a power curve that ranks among the best in this draft, and a solid changeup that he sells well. Aside from the height concern ("you must be as tall as this sign to pitch in the big leagues"), Lincoln also suffers from a lack of projection, as he's already filled out physically and his secondary stuff is already quite good. He's the highest-probability collegiate arm in this draft and should go in the top five picks.
4. Tim Lincecum, RHP, University of Washington
Year School ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO Opp. BA K %
2006 Washington 1.94 125.1 75 39 27 8 63 199 .173 39%
2006 Harwich 0.69 39.1 14 7 3 0 11 68 .104 47%
2005 Washington 3.11 104.1 62 40 36 4 71 131 .179 30%
The circus freak among this year's top prospects, Lincecum might not even reach 5-foot-10 in heels, weighs less than Old Weird Harold, and has a delivery that draws comparisons to a catapult, but his one-two combination of a mid-90s fastball and an outstanding downer curveball might be the best two-pitch tandem in the draft. He has a simple plan: get ahead with two fastballs, then put hitters away with the deuce. However, Lincecum's size, unorthodox delivery, heavy workload -- he threw relief in midweek games four times this spring, and threw eight or more innings seven times -- and mediocre control all point toward a bullpen role in the pros. The limited data on Lincecum as a reliever supports the argument; in the Cape Cod League last summer, Lincecum threw 19.1 innings across 16 relief appearances, allowing one run, walking four batters and fanning 42. If the team that drafts him does put him in the pen, he's likely to be the first 2006 draftee to reach the majors.
5. Evan Longoria, INF, Long Beach State
Year Team AVG OBP SLG AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB
2006 L.B. St. .353 .468 .602 201 71 13 2 11 40 29 3
2006 Chatham .299 .331 .500 164 49 7 1 8 7 30 6
2005 L.B. St. .310 .368 .421 228 73 8 0 5 14 41 10
No relation to Eva -- much to the chagrin of area scouts volunteering to do the home visit -- Longoria is the top collegiate position player prospect in the pool, although that's more a reflection of the lack of star-caliber college hitters than of Longoria's own potential. Despite his apparent attempts to adopt the swing of 2005 first-rounder Troy Tulowitzki (who was the Dirtbags' shortstop for three years), Longoria is a completely different animal from Tulo, who was a rangy shortstop with plus power potential and a hose for an arm. Longoria has played third and second in addition to short, and his ultimate position isn't clear. He has only average raw power, but has shown excellent plate discipline this spring after struggling with the strike zone in an otherwise stellar summer on the Cape. He does have a hole inside, common in a lot of power hitters, but a little surprising for a disciplined, plate-coverage guy like Longoria. He'll be an above-average regular if he can stay at short, or an average third baseman, quick to the big leagues, but without much star potential.
6. Max Scherzer, RHP, University of Missouri
Year School ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO Opp. BA K %
2006 Missouri 1.95 73.2 51 18 16 3 23 72 .204 28%
2006 Team USA 2.70 20 22 9 6 1 2 24 .282 28%
2005 Missouri 1.86 106.1 59 26 22 3 41 131 .163 32%
Scherzer likely would have entered the draft as the top college right-hander had he not been slowed by two bouts of tendinitis in his throwing shoulder, causing him to miss four starts in two separate stints of inactivity and causing his velocity to drop during the season, although he finished strongly, touching 98 in his last outing. A healthy Scherzer is an animal -- a big, physical kid with a 94-98 mph fastball and a hard low-80s slider, although Scherzer struggled badly with his breaking ball in March and April. As a Boras client -- excuse me, advisee -- Scherzer's ultimate destination will probably be determined by his bonus demands rather than his health or stuff, meaning he could drop out of the top 20.
7. Billy Rowell, SS, Bishop Eustice Prep (Pennsauken, N.J.)
Rowell has the highest offensive ceiling of any high school hitter in this year's draft, but has a longer way to go to reach his potential than some of the other top prep bats. Like Chris Marrero (No. 18), Rowell puts on a show in BP. He has tremendous raw power, although he needs to learn to extend his arms more and to stay on his back leg better, particularly in games. He's shown himself to be vulnerable inside as well. Rowell is not expected to stay at shortstop due to his long actions in the field, but has the arm to move to third base or to right field.
8. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Highland Park H.S. (Dallas, Texas)
Kershaw has supplanted Kyle Drabek as the top prep arm in the country, and while Drabek's off-field issues have helped make that happen, Kershaw's stuff and undeniable left-handedness have also been factors in his rise, so that he's now expected to go in the top eight picks. Kershaw probably would be a middle-of-the-round talent in an ordinary draft class, but rises to the top here on the strength of his live 92-95 mph fastball, quick arm, and big frame. His curve is inconsistent but flashes plus at times. At this point, there's next to no chance that Kershaw makes it out of the top seven picks.
9. Joba Chamberlain, RHP, University of Nebraska
Year School ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO Opp. BA K %
2006 Nebraska 3.93 89.1 84 41 39 6 34 102 .255 28%
2006 Beatrice (MINK) 1.59 45.1 32 10 8 2 13 63 .195 35%
2005 Nebraska 2.81 118.2 91 44 37 7 33 130 .218 28%
Joba (pronounced Jaw-buh) Chamberlain came into the year without much fanfare, as he spent 2004 pitching for Division II Nebraska-Kearney, then after a solid spring with Nebraska in 2005, he chose to pitch in the little-known, unsanctioned M.I.N.K. League over the summer. Chamberlain then came out throwing bullets in the early going, pitching consistently in the 91-94 range and touching 98, along with two breaking balls and the beginnings of a changeup. Despite missing two starts in mid-March due to what was called "biceps tendinitis," Chamberlain made starts in each of the season's last 10 weekends. Still, one executive told me that his club had high medical flags on Chamberlain, both due to the tendinitis and due to another, more serious arm problem.
10. Pedro Beato, RHP, St. Petersburg Junior College
Beato's presence on this list is a huge shock, not because he lacks the talent, but because he was drafted by the Mets last year, giving them a chance to sign him this May as a draft-and-follow. Since Beato is from New York City (Xavieran High School in Brooklyn), it was assumed that he'd leap at the chance to pitch for his local team and start his pro career in his own backyard. To the surprise of just about everyone in the game, it didn't happen, even though the Mets lack a first-round pick. Because Beato was under control and presumed as good as signed, he wasn't heavily scouted this spring, making his destination in the draft an open question. As a prospect, he grades out very well as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter: tall, strong kid (6-6, 220), plus fastball up to 96 mph, average changeup, power curveball in the upper 70s that is inconsistent, with outstanding makeup and good grades to boot. That package in a 19-year-old is rare, and the fact that he's faced good competition in his year in junior college sets him apart from most of the prep arms in this draft. (How good is St. Pete's baseball program? Unless he goes in the top 40 or 50 picks, Dellin Betances, one of the top prep arms in the country -- albeit as raw as beef carpaccio -- is committed to take Beato's place.)
11. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Halifax County Senior H.S. (South Boston, Va.)
One of the few true flamethrowers in this year's draft, Jeffress' slim build (6-foot, 175 pounds) belies the quality of his arm. He features an electric fastball that runs up to 97 mph, and he holds his velocity deep into games. His curveball has power but is inconsistent, and he has some feel for a changeup -- unusual even in the best high school pitching prospects. Although his size might be seen as a negative, his fastball velocity and durability are already excellent, so projection isn't an issue.
12. Daniel Bard, RHP, University of North Carolina
Year School ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO Opp. BA K %
2006 No. Carolina 3.47 85.2 71 42 33 4 33 90 .225 24%
2006 Wareham 1.25 65.0 42 18 9 2 20 82 .183 32%
2005 North Carolina 4.22 89.2 73 53 42 8 43 77 .219 19%
Few players in this year's draft cause as much disagreement as the Tar Heels' other hard-throwing starter, this one a righty with a low arm slot and questions about his makeup. On a good day, Bard keeps his arm at a low three-quarters angle, firing 92-96 mph sinkers with a tight slider that has good, late bite. On other days, his arm angle drops, his slider flattens out, and he struggles to throw strikes. That inconsistency combined with a lot of whispering have led to questions about Bard's toughness and coachability -- vague criticisms that prompted one top evaluator to ask me, "How do you argue against that?" Bard's ultimate destination is probably in short relief, but he does hold his velocity into games and has a good enough shot to remain a starter to warrant a first-round pick.
13. Brandon Morrow, RHP, University of California
Year School ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO Opp. BA K %
2006 California 2.05 96.2 72 34 22 5 39 97 .211 25%
2006 Yar.-Den. 1.84 14.2 13 3 3 0 9 24 .232 37%
2005 California 9.36 25.0 32 27 26 3 20 25 .308 20%
The first time I saw Morrow was on Cape Cod the summer after his freshman year, when he was throwing 87-91 and was so thin that you could have stuck him down the storm gutters to retrieve a lost ball. Fast forward to this spring, when Morrow was throwing 97-99 mph, holding his velo into the late innings of starts and flashing a new splitter that gave him his first quality secondary pitch. A solid three-start run (23 IP, 20 H, 2 BB, 20 K) against Oregon State, UCLA and Stanford in front of plenty of scouting directors and cross-checkers helped cement his status as a likely top-10 pick. The lack of a breaking ball and prior command issues are the major negatives.
14. Travis Snider, LF/RF, Jackson H.S. (Everett, Wash.)
Snider burst onto the scene in the Area Code Games before his junior year of high school, and despite adding some weight this season (and not the good kind), he's still likely to go in the top half of the first round. The left-handed hitter has a sound, conventional swing that generates significant raw and in-game power, with a number of long home runs on his résumé. He'll need to hit and hit for power, however, as he is likely to end up in left field or at first base in the pros, due to his body type and his below-average arm.
15. Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford
Year School ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO Opp. BA K %
2006 Stanford 3.36 120.2 111 52 45 7 28 99 .252 20%
2006 Bourne 1.70 53.0 36 13 10 2 15 34 .195 17%
2005 Stanford 5.08 51.1 51 36 29 4 17 51 .260 23%
Reynolds is one of the more polished pitching products in this draft, perhaps only behind Lincoln in that regard. Reynolds' fastball is a tick above average with decent sink, he has a plus 11-to-5 curveball, and he has good command. He also gets points for pitching well this year in the Pac-10, one of the best baseball conferences in the country. But one thing sets Reynolds apart from most of the other college pitchers who'll go in the first round on Tuesday: He just doesn't miss bats. Only the two-sport star Jeff Samardzija fanned a lower percentage of opposing hitters than Reynolds did this spring. Reynolds' K rates have never been good, even in the pitcher-friendly Cape Cod League last summer. So while he's a very high-probability pick, he's likely to end up no more than a fourth starter.
16. Drew Stubbs, CF, University of Texas
Year Team AVG OBP SLG AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB
2006 Texas .342 .439 .580 243 83 14 4 12 41 60 26
2006 Team USA .304 .385 .370 46 14 3 0 0 6 14 1
2005 Texas .311 .384 .527 283 88 20 4 11 32 71 32
Stubbs is Longoria's primary competition for the spot of top collegiate position player, and where the two sit on various draft boards depends on the various organizations' philosophies. While performance analysis would put Longoria in front, a more traditional, tools-oriented approach would put Stubbs far above Longoria. Stubbs is a well-above average runner and an outstanding defensive center fielder, two things generally lacking in this year's pool of collegiate hitters. However, Stubbs' flaws are substantial -- his raw power shows up in BP, but not as often in games; and he swings and misses far too often to project him to hit for any kind of average, striking out 71 times as a sophomore and 53 times as a junior. As a plus defensive player at a position on the left end of the defensive spectrum, Stubbs is likely to go in the top 20 picks, but I think there's a significant chance that he doesn't hit enough to play every day in the majors.
17. Kyle Drabek, RHP, The Woodlands H.S. (The Woodlands, Texas)
On talent alone, Drabek would rank as the draft's top high school pitching prospect ... and probably its top high school hitting prospect as well, although every insider I spoke with ranked him as a pitcher. Drabek works with a five-pitch repertoire, but his selling points are the mid-90s fastball and an outstanding curve. Oddly enough for the son of a pretty good big-leaguer, Drabek is not a polished pitcher, but is more of a talented arm who'd need some development. But the knocks on Drabek are substantial, from reports calling him "spoiled" to a history of off-field incidents, including a public intoxication charge that was dismissed and a one-car accident in which he rammed his SUV into a tree. Were it not for makeup concerns that have the names Jeff Allison and Josh Hamilton on some people's lips, Drabek would probably go in the top five picks, perhaps as the top pick overall, but one scouting director with whom I spoke called Drabek "the wild card" -- no one knows where he'll go.
18. Chris Marrero, 3B, Monsignor Pace H.S. (Opa Locka, Fla.)
Marrero came into 2006 as the consensus top high school hitter in the draft, but a subpar spring, coupled with strong performances from Snider and Rowell, has pushed Marrero out of a likely top-five slot. In fact, Marrero was overshadowed most of the spring by a teammate, shortstop Adrian Cardenas, a baseball rat who ended up setting a county record for home runs. Marrero remains high on draft boards due to his long history of success playing on the U.S. junior team and at various showcases, and because the plus power is still evident in batting practice. In games this year, however, Marrero has been pulling off the ball, failing to show any power to the opposite field. Of the big three high school bats, Marrero has the best chance to play at a skill position (third base) in the majors.
19. Jeff Samardzija, RHP, University of Notre Dame
Year School ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO Opp. BA K %
2006 Notre Dame 4.33 97.2 101 51 47 3 37 61 .272 15%
2005 Notre Dame 3.89 78.2 85 39 34 3 30 56 .272 16%
Samardzija doesn't fit on the list for a variety of reasons. His performance this spring was nowhere near that of the other college players here, and even fell short of teammate (and possible first round pick) Jeff Manship's. He probably won't go in the first 20 picks, or even in the first round. And he was a second-team All-American in football. Samardzija started at wide receiver for Notre Dame last fall, racking up over 1,200 receiving yards and earning a place on Todd McShay's list of the top 12 senior prospects for the 2007 NFL draft. Because Samardzija still has a lot of development ahead of him if he wants to pitch in the big leagues, his determination to play both sports makes him less appealing to otherwise interested MLB clubs, who like his combination of size, athleticism, raw stuff (easy 92-95, allegedly reaching 99 at times, but inconsistent), and plus makeup.
20. Hank Conger, C, Huntington Beach H.S. (Huntington Beach, Calif.)
Hyun "Hank" Conger is the top high school catcher in the country, although he's earned that status largely on the strength of his bat, as there's a lot of doubt about whether he'll stay behind the plate or move to another position, possibly third base (where he played a little bit in high school) or more likely first base. Conger's appeal is that he's a switch-hitter with legitimate power from both sides of the plate; that puts him ahead of the draft's "other" top high school catcher, Max Sapp (Bishop Moore School, Orlando, Fla.), a left-handed power bat with similar questions about his ultimate position.