Stubbs: What can he do to make the pick worth it?

[TOBTTReds]

A lot of people have questioned this pick big time. On the day of the top 10 prospects showing Stubbs as #5, I ask:

What is his success level in MLB to make this a good pick?

A. Torii Hunter-like success (great glove and some bat)?

B. Just being an avg major league CF'er with sub-OK numbers .270/.325/.450

C. Just give me some gold gloves.

D. 35 HR's and gold gloves.

E. Better than those pitchers we passed on.



I didn't want to make this a poll bc of the numerous options. Just use the letters to reference. So what do you guys think?

A and B look similar, but B is less glove than Hunter. For this pick for me, I think we need to get close to Torii Hunter out of him. He has been compared (or ceilinged) to Hunter and Mike Cameron. What if his offensive numbers are worse than that? Can he survive in the Majors with just a good glove in CF? Looking closely at Hunter's numbers, they are surprisingly poor despite having 23 or more HR's five seasons. Hunter had a season of 26 HR, 102 RBI and numbers of 250/312/451.

I would like more on base than that obviously. I think Stubbs has that in his game. I would like numbers, and almost expect numbers, closer to .275/.350/.460 to make this a really good pick. I just think there was a lot of talent we passed on to make him our 1st round pick, so we need a good CF'er and a decent bat with it to make it worth it. Selfish? Maybe. Too high of expectations? Maybe.

[dougdirt]

I would take A or C.... as long as C comes as a CF.

I hope for more, but A or C would make it worth the #8 pick.

[icehole3]

From what I saw C is a given. Anything around .280 BA with 20 homers and I would be pleased, his defense is that good.

[chicoruiz]

Upside: Devon White

Downside Gary Pettis

[edabbs44]

Upside: Devon White

Downside Gary Pettis

If the #8 pick's upside is only Devon White while his downside goes as far down as Gary Pettis...then there was a large problem with the pick. I was kind of hoping for Andruw Jones as the upside.

[chicoruiz]

Well, of course we're all hoping for Andruw Jones, but I think if Stubbs plays a Gold Glove center field for a decade, hits 200+ homers and steals 350 bases, I'd not be inclined to complain.

[AdamDunn]

The 2006 draft didn't have the same talent level as previous drafts. I've heard that if Stubbs was in a normal draft, he'd be a late first round draft pick. So I wouldn't be surprised if he turned into a bust.

[edabbs44]

Well, of course we're all hoping for Andruw Jones, but I think if Stubbs plays a Gold Glove center field for a decade, hits 200+ homers and steals 350 bases, I'd not be inclined to complain.

Was talking about upside, or best case scenario.

[cincy09]

Could this guy potentially bat leadoff?

[TOBTTReds]

Could this guy potentially bat leadoff?

Yeah I think so. He's got great speed, and some on base skills. His power might be a sign to keep him in the middle of lineup though. I think it is way to early to try to see where he could bat though. His total hitting tools need to develop or not develop before considering it though.

[IslandRed]

I was kind of hoping for Andruw Jones as the upside.

That would be nice. Although I have to say, if it was a commonly held opinion that Stubbs was going to be a gold-glove CF with a 40-homer bat -- you know, like Andruw Jones -- he's not on the board at #8, weak draft or no weak draft. Yet Stubbs is supposed to have excellent natural power; he just has to, you know, hit the ball first. That's why he's such an enigmatic pick -- he could be the 40-home-run gold-glover, or the guy who can't hit enough to hold a regular job, or anywhere in between. If he doesn't become Andruw Jones, then maybe we get Mike Cameron: Low BA, decent OBP, good-not-great power, terrific defense. Cameron's not a superstar but plenty of teams run worse out to center field every day.

I think he'll be a good test for the new regime's minor-league instruction abilities.

[Triples]

Was talking about upside, or best case scenario.

And why shouldn't Reds fans have an Andruw Jones expectation, the guy got a $2mil+ signing bonus. That brings with it high expectations.

[icehole3]

I saw him play 3 times last year, Texas had him in the 3 hole. He has true gap power and HR strength. You could tell he's a gifted athelete. He seemed to be a smart ball player out in the field, throwing to the right base and so on. Didnt have the cannon Jay Bruce has though.

[jmcclain19]

I really, strongly am hoping for Stubbs to do well.

The Reds system desperately needs talent, and they gave him a lot of money as a risky pick. A pick I still despise to this day.

Everyone keeps posting they hope or believe that Stubbs can be a Mike Cameron type.

I believe that is Stubbs 100th percentile. I see a defensive replacement type - 4th or 5th of with some occasional pop off the bench. If he even makes it that far.

[camisadelgolf]

I guess I'd go with option B. From a first-round draft pick, naturally, you expect him to be a great player for a long-time. Of course, usually, it doesn't work out that way. However, as long as he earns his money (and in my opinion, for a $2,000,000+ signing bonus, you should have at least one productive year), I won't complain.