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Thread: Rank the NL infields

  1. #16
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    The Cubs and Marlins have interesting IFs. Both could be good. Obviously others expect more from Derrek Lee than I do. For the Marlins, there's a potential big hole at 1B, which is a major kick in the pants to an offense. I'm expecting sophomore slumps for Uggla and Ramirez, though it's just as possible they'll match or surpass their 2006 production. How long Cabrera remains at 3B is another question around that team. If things for the team go generally right, he probably won't move to the OF, but if things go wrong well into the summer, I'd expect to see Cabrera sent to an OF corner and Josh Willingham moved to 1B with 3B manned by a committee.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    I"m not sure why anyome would rank Eckstein so much higher than Gonzalez at SS. Eck actually doesn't hit all that much better; his OPS last year was actually a bit less than Gonzalez. And Gonzalez is one of the better fielding SS in the league, while Eckstein lacks arm strength and range galore.

    Gonzalez may not be pretty, but he'll give you more than Eckstein. Unless you factor "scrapiness" into it.

  4. #18
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I"m not sure why anyome would rank Eckstein so much higher than Gonzalez at SS. Eck actually doesn't hit all that much better; his OPS last year was actually a bit less than Gonzalez. And Gonzalez is one of the better fielding SS in the league, while Eckstein lacks arm strength and range galore.

    Gonzalez may not be pretty, but he'll give you more than Eckstein. Unless you factor "scrapiness" into it.
    Scrapiness trumps talent and production.

  5. #19
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I"m not sure why anyome would rank Eckstein so much higher than Gonzalez at SS. Eck actually doesn't hit all that much better; his OPS last year was actually a bit less than Gonzalez. And Gonzalez is one of the better fielding SS in the league, while Eckstein lacks arm strength and range galore.

    Gonzalez may not be pretty, but he'll give you more than Eckstein. Unless you factor "scrapiness" into it.
    Eckstein was worth an extra 54 points of OB last season (using a park-adjusted league average. He was worth an extra 33 points in 2005 and an extra 66 in 2004. Even with his low SLG, Eckstein has a career OPS+ 10 points higher than Gonzalez's. Essentially, Eckstein wipes the floor with Gonzalez when it comes to what they do at the plate.

    On defense, here's one well-regarded system that estimated Gonzalez was worth roughly 5 extra runs saved over Eckstein with the glove over the course of 150 games. I don't recommend taking that as gospel, but I didn't see Gonzalez ranked well ahead of Eckstein in any normalized defensive measurement last season (e.g. Win Shares gave AG one extra WS with the glove). Anyway, the point I'm trying to make is that there isn't any evidence I can find that what AG does with the glove comes even close to making up for what he loses you at the plate.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  6. #20
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    I'll be interested to see how he performs at short for the Reds, and if playing in GAB and back in the NL helps him at all at the plate.
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  7. #21
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC View Post
    I'll be interested to see how he performs at short for the Reds, and if playing in GAB and back in the NL helps him at all at the plate.
    It should probably give him a slight power boost, but going from Fenway (one of the best OB parks on the planet) to the GAB (traditionally tough on OB) likely will hurt him where he's weakest. If he's swapping a point of OB for each extra point of SLG, that's not a good trade.

    I can still deal with that if he's going to play top-shelf defense (something the Reds need), but other players are going to have to step up on offense to cover for all the outs Gonzalez will be making.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  8. #22
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    Agree. It will be nice to see some top notch defense at shortstop. He and Phillips could be real nice up the middle.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
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  9. #23
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC View Post
    Agree. It will be nice to see some top notch defense at shortstop. He and Phillips could be real nice up the middle.
    I think Gonzo and Phillips have a chance to be more than just pretty good but dominant up the middle. As far as pure range and the nack for making the acrobatic play we have a top 3 double play combo in MLB. When was the last time a reds fan could say that?
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  10. #24
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    IIRC, Phillips has a sub 290 OBP after the break last year. Once the pitchers seem to get a handle on how to pitch he became an out machine as well.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  11. #25
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    For fun, I used the PECOTA projections and found the number of estimated runs (with XRR: extrapolated runs) each player is projected. Then, I normalized to 500PA. As a way to bring in defense, I took Dial's numbers M2 linked to. Finally I put weights on the defensive numbers (.025 for 1B, .05 for 2B, .1 for SS, and .075 for 3B) and added that to the XR/500PA.

    Code:
    	Team	1B	2B	SS	3B	Total
    1	COL	50.880	38.06	45.44	48.57	182.96
    2	ARI	46.736	48.50	42.76	42.26	180.25
    3	PHI	45.549	44.16	45.21	43.80	178.71
    4	SLN	51.249	42.33	41.40	43.41	178.39
    5	HOU	52.849	44.51	36.53	44.45	178.33
    6	ATL	37.016	47.95	44.17	46.70	175.84
    7	WAS	51.067	46.08	30.47	45.38	173.00
    8	FLO	38.898	35.20	47.01	51.37	172.48
    9	NYN	41.082	36.47	46.57	47.76	171.88
    10	LAN	38.088	45.87	45.88	36.70	166.53
    11	SFN	38.123	46.49	47.55	34.32	166.48
    12	SDN	41.805	42.51	38.77	40.54	163.63
    13	CIN	45.163	42.68	34.83	40.64	163.32
    14	MIL	43.499	41.55	35.42	40.38	160.84
    15	CHN	44.715	38.90	40.96	36.24	160.82
    16	PIT	40.361	34.58	39.86	44.82	159.62
    Now, this is completely ad hoc (but what isn't when it comes to baseball statistics, God forbid someone come up with a good theory), and probably completely stupid and meaningless. But, I guess fun none the less. Got to love Friday afternoons.

  12. #26
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    You rate Alex Gonzalez under Cesar Izturis and Jack Wilson?
    Yes. Definitely under Wilson and under the combo of Izturis and Cedeno.

  13. #27
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    IIRC, Phillips has a sub 290 OBP after the break last year. Once the pitchers seem to get a handle on how to pitch he became an out machine as well.
    I hope against this, but I have a lingering feeling Phillips will return to his career norm of being a professional out-making machine. Hopefully his defense will make up for the almost anticpated/expected decline in offensive production.

  14. #28
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Rank the NL infields

    I used flyer's method and I was stunned with what I came up with

    Code:
    Team	1B	2B	3B	SS	Total
    FLA 	12	2	1	3	18
    PHI	2	1	15	4	22
    NYM	6	12	2	2	22
    STL	1	11	3	8	23
    LA	5	7	16	1	29
    SD	7	4	11	7	29
    ARZ	11	8	8	5	32
    COL	8	9	6	10	33
    CHI	3	14	4	13	34
    SF	9	3	14	9	35
    HOU  	4	13	10	12	39
    MIL	10	5	13	11	39
    ATL	16	15	5	6	42
    WSH	13	6	9	16	44
    CIN  	15	10	7	14	46
    PIT	14	16	12	15	57
    I found myself working backwards - Who was worst up to who was the best. Many guys I don't feel deserve that high of a ranking (Eckstein, Khalil Greene, Ray Durham) But I think that's more due to the weakness of the NL rather than their talents.

    That was much harder and more surprising of an outcome than I would have thought.

    On the other hand, I really don't have much hope for the Reds in 2007, apparently.
    Last edited by jmcclain19; 02-03-2007 at 01:17 AM.


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