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Thread: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

  1. #1
    Member forfreelin04's Avatar
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    What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    School was cancelled today. So I hear I am with all this time on my hands. I was excited about my first day of student teaching, so I decided to put this unused energy to work. Last year and worse in the year preceding, I was an avid Dunn basher. However, after realizing theres more to a baseball game then just watching it, I started to take back these statements. So now I am trying to make up for my ignorance and provide some stats that could prove useful in the future.

    The other day, Reds44, advocated for Dunn hitting second for most of next year. I recalled Dunn having some success in that hole, but I figured his success was limited in only a few at bats. However, I do realize that batting order is something that goes overlooked. Playing baseball for as long as I have, certain players just hit better in certain places in the lineup. I could hit the tar off the ball in the second hole, but couldnt hit for nothing leading off. I wondered why this was and in this analysis I attempted to see if Dunn truly found a home at the two spot. My investigation brought up some seriously interesting points. I'd rather not have this thread sprial down into a Dunn bashing, so please refrain but sarcasm is welcome haha.

    The question I would like to pose is Dunn better off in the 2 hole, 5 hole, 4th hole, or 3rd hole? Dunn batted some in the 6th hole but the sample size is extremely small and irrelevant I think. I will also remind you that my data was compiled by going through Gameday and apt to be wrong in several areas. However, on the whole, it is correct. I crossreferenced Dunn's various batting positions with Hits, At Bats, K, HR, and BB. I chose these stats since this is what Dunn does the most and what we criticize or praise him for the most too.

    Adam Dunn (2006 Season)
    AB H BB HR K
    2 Hole 108 39 11 6 41
    5 Hole 184 37 41 10 63
    4-Hole 164 36 32 11 63
    3-Hole 67 18 13 9 27

    AVG BB/PA HR/AB SO/AB
    2 Hole .361 .0924 .055 .379
    5 Hole .201 .182 .038 .342
    4 Hole .219 .162 .054 .381
    3 Hole .268 .162 .134 .402

    Well theres the data. Obviously, his September and August statistics were awful. In September, he batted .137 mostly out of the cleanup spot thanks to Griffeys toe. However, I don't know how much of his downward sprial can be attributed to his spot in the batting order or his fatigue. He very rarely had a day off throughout the entire season. An off the cuff speculation is that he just needs a day off every 2 weeks instead of once a month. But like I said that is just speculation.

    Back to the data, it is obvious Dunn's strong suit is the 2 hole. His batting average explains so, but if your not into those things he does hit homeruns at the same clip. However, he walked gradually less then in the other spots in the batting order. This could be because he was pitched to more often of course. But when he was pitched too, he surely didn't waste his opportunities. At first collection, I thought because Dunn saw more pitches that he would strike out actually more often. However, he actually struck out pretty much at the same clip as the other batting spots. I think the most glaring problem is that he batted almost below the Mendoza line in the 5th hole. The very spot where Narron batted him the most this past year. He walked more frequently and struck out less, but he hit homers at a slower rate. Walking is all well and good but it is dependent on the hitter behind you. In this case, Dunn would be getting on base for 6, 7 and 8 hitters. Compared to the 3 4 and 5 hitter when he is batted second. However, he walks less in the 2 hole, but does hit for a high average.

    An intriguing spot is the 3 hole since it seems to be the best of both worlds, but Dunn only had 67 plate apperances there. These at bats mostly took place when Griffey was on the DL in April and early May.

    Finally, I'll leave the data for everyone to discuss. It seems to me that the proper spot in the batting order is the 2 hole. I know many have discussed Hatteberg in there instead with Dunn hitting somewhere 3rd or 4th. One thing is for certain though, Dunn should not be hitting 5th. Not to mention, batting him cleanup isn't the best thing either.

    If I had to make a quick stab at the lineup. It would be:

    Deno/Freel
    Dunn
    Edwin
    Griffey
    Hatteberg/Conine
    Phillips
    Ross/Vale
    Gonzo

    Enjoy!

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  3. #2
    You know his story Redsland's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    Dunn gets on base, so he needs to be near the top of the order.

    Dunn gets pitched around when he's down in the order, so he needs to be near the top of the order.

    Therefore, I'd hit him second.
    Makes all the routine posts.

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    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    I would hope, at some point, Jerry Narron would draw the same conclusion you have about Dunn. Unfortunately, I don't think Jerry reads Redszone. I'm guessing that Dunn starts the year batting fifth behind Jr (in the 3 spot) and Edwin, hitting cleanup.

    Thanks for the data.
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    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    I really dislike Dunn batting second because it wastes his power. Sliding him back to third still gets him a lot of plate appearances, plus he'll have more runners on base when he comes up, since the 9-1-2 batters are going to have a better shot of getting on than the 8-9-1 group. I'd certainly take second over the fifth he's likely to hit, but I'd prefer third over anything else.

  6. #5
    Member durl's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    Good analysis, forfreelin04. While it seems odd to put a power hitter like Dunn at the #2 spot, he seems to do much better there.

    Is it REALLY that odd to have him at #2? People would say you need him further down in the lineup because of his power, but you should put him where he performs best. The Reds had some good hitters at #7 and 8 last year so having power at the top could have been useful.

  7. #6
    Member Red Heeler's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    The Reds would have a much better lineup with a SS or 2B who could hit lead-off or second. I suppose you could have CoHatte bat second, but it would sure be nice to have someone with a little wheels there. Optimum batting order would have EdE, Dunn, and Griffey in the 3, 4, and 5 spots, respectively.

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    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    I like the first four to be:

    Freel / Denorfia
    Dunn
    Edwin
    Griffey

    I think that's the best lineup. Give Dunn, Edwin as protection and I think he'll be fine. At the same time, give EE, Griff as protection and he should be fine. The problems come after Griffey in the 5 spot. Since you've taken Dunn out of a run producing spot (5) and put him in more of an OB spot (2), you don't have a typical run producing guy at #5. That's what I was hoping the Reds would aquire to take the RH platoon at 1B. We got Conine. I don't think Conine is a #5 hitter anymore.
    'When I'm not longer rapping, I want to open up an ice cream parlor and call myself Scoop Dogg.'
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    Member forfreelin04's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Leader View Post
    I would hope, at some point, Jerry Narron would draw the same conclusion you have about Dunn. Unfortunately, I don't think Jerry reads Redszone. I'm guessing that Dunn starts the year batting fifth behind Jr (in the 3 spot) and Edwin, hitting cleanup.

    Thanks for the data.
    Ahhh yes the dreaded Lefty, Righty, Lefty. It just bothers me that the proof is in the pudding here. Maybe Jerry thinks Dunn's value still lies in his ability to hit runners in?

    It is apparent to me that Dunn like most power hitters is at his best when he catches the pitcher making a mistake. However, if the pitcher doesnt make a mistake, then he falters much more then other players. Seems to me more often then not pitchers are going to not make a mistake, when they are trying their most not to....like in a pressure situation with men on base. Thus, Dunn is probably better served hitting second because theres more liklihood of the pitcher making a mistake.

  10. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    Dunn needs to be #2 or #3, and no later. His on base percentage goes to waste in other spots, albeit #4 isnt so bad, but Dunn or Edwin need to hit 3rd. Edwin needs to be between Dunn and Griffey, so since we have Narron managing, Dunn will bat 5th behind Edwin and Griffey will hit 3rd.

  11. #10
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny Serafini View Post
    I really dislike Dunn batting second because it wastes his power. Sliding him back to third still gets him a lot of plate appearances, plus he'll have more runners on base when he comes up, since the 9-1-2 batters are going to have a better shot of getting on than the 8-9-1 group. I'd certainly take second over the fifth he's likely to hit, but I'd prefer third over anything else.
    Batting Dunn second maximizes his OB skills and his ability to work the count. It also slightly increases the number of ABs he gets in a season.

    That said, I think he should be hitting 3rd in the current Reds lineup.

    Freel
    Hatteberg
    Dunn
    Encarnacion
    Griffey
    Ross
    Phillips
    Gonzo

    Dunn seems to be very reliant upon protection in the lineup -- more so than other hitters. When he's got a decent hitter behind him, pitchers seem less likely to throw him junk. I wonder, does anyone have any data to support this theory?
    Last edited by Johnny Footstool; 02-05-2007 at 12:12 PM.
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    A Lost Ball In High Weeds shredda2000's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Dunn seems to be very reliant upon protection in the lineup -- more so than other hitters. When he's got a decent hitter behind him, pitchers seem less likely to throw him junk. I wonder, does anyone have any data to support this theory?
    I was just thinking the same thing. It seems when Grif went down, Dunn did not have any protection which I believe led to his numbers in September.
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    Member forfreelin04's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Batting Dunn second maximizes his OB skills and his ability to work the count. It also slightly increases the number of ABs he gets in a season.

    That said, I think he should be hitting 3rd in the current Reds lineup.

    Freel
    Hatteberg
    Dunn
    Encarnacion
    Griffey
    Ross
    Phillips
    Gonzo

    Dunn seems to be very reliant upon protection in the lineup -- more so than other hitters. When he's got a decent hitter behind him, pitchers seem less likely to throw him junk. I wonder, does anyone have any data to support this theory?
    Just off the cuff here Johnny, but when I was compiling my data it was evident Dunn was reliant on Griffey being in the lineup. In September, when Griffey was out with the dislocated toe, Dunn was at his worst because most of his at bats in the 4th and 5th hole. For the whole month, Dunn was 14 for 102, which translates into a buck 36 batting average. With Griffey gone, he batted 4th 53 times, only managed 1 homerun, 5 hits, and 17 K's. That's a .94 batting average. Of course, this could also be attributed to fatigue.

    In contrast, Dunn batted .484 in the 2 hole in front of Griffey before the All Star break. While batting behind Griffey before the All Star Break, Dunn batted .294 in the cleanup spot but only .202 in the 5th hole. Thus, the worst scenario is to have Dunn bat 5th behind Griffey and Edwin.

  14. #13
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post

    Freel
    Hatteberg
    Dunn
    Encarnacion
    Griffey
    Ross
    Phillips
    Gonzo
    This my lineup as well, sadly I doubt we see it for more then 2 games this year.
    Go Gators!

  15. #14
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    I like him 3rd with Freel/Denorfia and Hatteberg at the top. Anything would be better than batting him 5th though.

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    Re: What can be Dunn with the batting order?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Batting Dunn second maximizes his OB skills and his ability to work the count. It also slightly increases the number of ABs he gets in a season.

    That said, I think he should be hitting 3rd in the current Reds lineup.

    Freel
    Hatteberg
    Dunn
    Encarnacion
    Griffey
    Ross
    Phillips
    Gonzo

    Dunn seems to be very reliant upon protection in the lineup -- more so than other hitters. When he's got a decent hitter behind him, pitchers seem less likely to throw him junk. I wonder, does anyone have any data to support this theory?
    Agreed with that lineup totally. Hatte is actually nearing Dunn in terms of OBP, so I'd hate to put him back at the 5 or 6 hole where he that skill diminishes. Dunn isn't drasticly different vs. Lefty or Righty.

    But once again, Griffey's ability to accept hitting 5th and not playing CF will have an impact on this team's performance. We'll see if Narron has the guts to do it and Griffey has the ego to go with what is best for team.


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