What can be Dunn with the batting order?

[Redmachine2003]

Unless Freel & Deno are in the lineup at the same time I'm in favor of Phillips batting second. I know he doesn't have a high OBP but he does have speed, puts the bat on the ball, has a little pop etc. Given the other choices the reds have I'd go

Freel/Deno
Phillips
Dunn
Edwin
Griffey
Hatteberg/Conine (that hurts just to type)
Ross/Valentin
Gonzalez

I can agree with Ross ahead of Gonzo but if Valentin is in Gonzo has to bat 7th.

[pedro]

I can agree with Ross ahead of Gonzo but if Valentin is in Gonzo has to bat 7th.

If, god forbid, valentin is in there against LH pitching, yes, but against RH Valentin will out OPS Gonzo.

[RedsManRick]

"I'd much rather see BP at 5 than 2."
But you also have just made BP speed worth less. If you have anyone on base except freel and maybe EE, BP is going nowhere. No steals, no going 1st to 3rd on base hits because the person in front of him can't score from second. No putting pressure on the pitcher with Freel on 1st trying to steal and BP trying to drop a bunt that he can beat out.

Actually, you've just made his speed more valuable. Firstly, as Dan Fox discussed in his chat on BP.com today the run value difference between the best base runner and the worst baserunner in all of baseball is about 10 runs per year. Thus, because you're only moving him down in the order, the run value difference of that move based on his base running ability is so small as to be dwarfed by the effect of his OBP.

Also, you don't need speed to score from 2nd on a double or trot around the bases on a HR. If the likelihood of BP to be advanced by the runners behind him decreases when he moves down in the order, his ability to advance himself around the bases becomes that much more valuable. If the guys hitting behind him aren't as likely to hit that double or homer which would drive him in otherwise, the value of his ability to put himself in scoring position for that single or sac fly is increased.

An additional note, a study in the BP book Behind the Numbers shows that having a "speedy" runner on 1st base actually has a slight depressive affect on the guy at the plate. That is, it seems the hitter more distracted by the speed on base than is the pitcher or fielders.

Given all of this, and the well-established value of OBP, I've come to the conclusion, that speed is nice, but outside of some very rare extremes, it should be a non consideration, or at best a tie-breaker given equal performance in terms of OBP. While I'd prefer neither of them bat 2nd, if I had to choose between Phillips and Hatteberg, I'd choose Hat in a heartbeat.

[Red Heeler]

Sure, if you want to play small ball every day. If you want to score more runs, you want as many people on base as possible for the 3-4-5 hitters.... and a high OBP guy i the #1 and #2 spot is the easiest way to make that happen.

Absolutely, though it would be nice if you could have a guy who could play some small ball when called upon and also get on base (think vintage Larkin). If I were running the ship, I would have either skipped on AGon and tried Phillips at SS or looked to trade Phillips once AGon was signed. That would have opened spots for both Freel and Deno to bat 1-2 in front of the thunder.

[pedro]

Actually, you've just made his speed more valuable. Firstly, as Dan Fox discussed in his chat on BP.com today the run value difference between the best base runner and the worst baserunner in all of baseball is about 10 runs per year. Thus, because you're only moving him down in the order, the run value difference of that move based on his base running ability is so small as to be dwarfed by the effect of his OBP.

Also, you don't need speed to score from 2nd on a double or trot around the bases on a HR. If the likelihood of BP to be advanced by the runners behind him decreases when he moves down in the order, his ability to advance himself around the bases becomes that much more valuable. If the guys hitting behind him aren't as likely to hit that double or homer which would drive him in otherwise, the value of his ability to put himself in scoring position for that single or sac fly is increased.

An additional note, a study in the BP book Behind the Numbers shows that having a "speedy" runner on 1st base actually has a slight depressive affect on the guy at the plate. That is, it seems the hitter more distracted by the speed on base than is the pitcher or fielders.

Given all of this, and the well-established value of OBP, I've come to the conclusion, that speed is nice, but outside of some very rare extremes, it should be a non consideration, or at best a tie-breaker given equal performance in terms of OBP. While I'd prefer neither of them bat 2nd, if I had to choose between Phillips and Hatteberg, I'd choose Hat in a heartbeat.

the problem is that Hatteberg is a marginal player who has a good eye. He does better lower in the lineup where they'll pitch around him. If the Reds put Hatteberg in the #2 hole, he'll get challenged a lot, his OBP will go down as will his BA IMO.

[RichRed]

Then if that is the case you would want Dunn 2nd since he can't hit with runners on base

This myth needs to be put to bed. Numbers for 2004-06 with men on base:

.243/.412/.520/.932

54 HRs, 223 RBI in 733 AB

[bucksfan2]

My lineup would look like this.
Deno/Freel
Phillips
Dunn
Encarnacion
Jr
Ross
Hatte/Conine
Gonzo

I dont understand why everyone wants to drop Phillips so far down in the lineup. They guy has shown the ability to be a very effective base runner. I would also like to see how he performs with the likes of EE or Dunn protecting him. While he is a free swinger I would rather have him hitting in the 2 hole, getting on base and causing havoc. Hatte gets on base a lot but is really limited to what he can do when he gets on.