Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

[TRF]

It is better than it was. That doesn't justify all his moves, or mean that it is as good as it will likely need to be, but it is better whether you want to admit it or not.

Well Shackelford is likely out of the pen, and no other LH in the pen was as good as he was against LH hitters, so no, there is no improvement there.

Schoeneweiss is gone. his replacement is?

Cormier was NEVER really a good pitcher. and he wasn't good with the Reds last year. All he is, is a year older.

Guardado won't pitch until July, likely won't be effective until august.

the pen isn't better. it's older yes, but not better. and really, better than what? it was in a constant state of flux mired in crap last year. now it's stable crap. that's really a wash.

[Redsland]

By the way, Feb. 8th, 2006, Wayne Krivsky was hired as Reds GM.

Arroyo was his first move, I believe. How appropriate. He's now extended.

If memory serves, his first transaction after being hired was locking up Adam Dunn for two years with an option for a third.

[Redsland]

If Wayne's plan is "pitching and defense," then why does the pitching in the bullpen still suck?

And why did David Ross get the nod over Jason LaRue?

[pedro]

How do you know that pedro?

If history has taught us anything its that bullpen arms are highly volatile from one year to the next - its just as possible that the bullpen could once again implode.

I'm not saying its going to happen, but it could. Weathers could put up an era over 5, as could Stanton, and Cormier, and Majewski, and Coffey. In short, its not like we have one sure thing in the bullpen - not one. So to say its definitely improved is wrong. It might be improved, hell it might be an 85% chance its improved, but bullpen arms, especially non-dominant ones, are volatile.

depth. like you i expect a couple/few of these guys to wash out, but despite the tepidity of the individual pitchers, there is quite a lot more depth at this point than there was going into spring training last year. don't underestimate the value of consistent mediocrity.

[Matt700wlw]

If memory serves, his first transaction after being hired was locking up Adam Dunn for two years with an option for a third.

Are you sure that wasn't DanO?

I can't recall.

[westofyou]

And why did David Ross get the nod over Jason LaRue?

Probably because catchers defense is devalued in a world that doesn't steal, because Arroyo loved Ross and because LaRue's declining playing time made for an uncomfortable summer of whining coming over the horizon.

Liking defense doesn't mean that idea own all the positions on your team year in and year out. The market and other aspects probably shape part of that.

[TC81190]

If Wayne's plan is "pitching and defense," then why does the pitching in the bullpen still suck?

The signings of Harang and Arroyo are not "evidence of a plan." They're two smart moves that a good GM should make. He made them, and I applaud him for it. Now he needs to start filling holes.

And I still say Shafer needs to be here, up in the big league pen.


Stupid Saarlooses...

[pedro]

Well Shackelford is likely out of the pen, and no other LH in the pen was as good as he was against LH hitters, so no, there is no improvement there.

Schoeneweiss is gone. his replacement is?

Cormier was NEVER really a good pitcher. and he wasn't good with the Reds last year. All he is, is a year older.

Guardado won't pitch until July, likely won't be effective until august.

the pen isn't better. it's older yes, but not better. and really, better than what? it was in a constant state of flux mired in crap last year. now it's stable crap. that's really a wash.

Brian Shackelford pitched all of 16.1 innings last year putting up an ERA of 7.61 and is still on the 40 man IIRC. Yeah, he's good against lefties, but he's also still an option so I honestly don't know what the problem is. Plus he sucks against RH so he's just a LOOGY.

[vaticanplum]

If memory serves, his first transaction after being hired was locking up Adam Dunn for two years with an option for a third.

I'm pretty sure this is correct too.

BTW the Sporting News's baseball preview issue has Adam Dunn listed as one of the premier free agents after 2007

[Redsland]

Probably because catchers defense is devalued in a world that doesn't steal, because Arroyo loved Ross and because LaRue's declining playing time made for an uncomfortable summer of whining coming over the horizon.

Liking defense doesn't mean that idea own all the positions on your team year in and year out. The market and other aspects probably shape part of that.

Those are all good reasons for getting rid of LaRue. I'm just saying that if people are claiming that The Plan is about pitching and defense, and if "up the middle" is where such a team would want top-flight gloves, yet we're going to see Ross/Valentin/Moeller at catcher, then maybe The Plan is as much a mirage as The Trade's payflex defense is.

Hey, I like these latest signings. I like that they reward achievement, maintain some fan-friendly roster continuity, and extend the team's window of opportunity. I'm just not convinced that these validate the presence of any plan beyond "sign stopgaps until some youngsters hopefully pan out."

[lollipopcurve]

The signings of Harang and Arroyo are not "evidence of a plan." They're two smart moves that a good GM should make. He made them, and I applaud him for it. Now he needs to start filling holes.

The plan is clear -- invest in pitching. Defense -- signing Gonzalez, asking Griffey to consider a move to a corner spot., etc., is also clearly a priority, as Krivsky has said it would be. For me, that's sufficient evidence of a plan at work. For those who seem to be saying a plan constitutes being able to strengthen your team in the optimal manner in every area of possible weakness in a single year (i.e, let's get a Detroit-style bullpen tout de suite, thanks, or let's get us a #3 starter chop chop), I'd say there's no GM who can have that kind of plan and accomplish it. If there is such a GM, who is it?

[Will M]

How can anybody say Krivsky has no plan anymore? It so obvious it's all about pitching and defense. He preached it last year, and now he's doing it this year. With Harang and Arroyo locked up for 4 years, you have a better one to punch then we have seen in Cincinnati then we have seen for a long time. Homer, at worst, will be up here next year and if he is half of what we expect him to be that is a great 1-2-3 punch. Then he has guys like Loshe and Saarloos who are still young and have some upside. I like Saarloos more then Loshe, but still if either one of them is even decent then that's 4 solid guys. You can then decide if the other is worhty of the 5th spot, or you can see if Cueto is the guy.

Then look at his offense. He went out at gave 14 million to one of the best defensive SS in baseball (if not the best), and last year he traded for Phillips and in less then a year he has set up one of the best DP combos and baseball. Combine that with moving Griffey out of CF (which will happen) and with Ryan Denorfia (yes, you like that?) in CF, you have one of the best defenses up the middle in baseball. Also, as many trade rumors as you hear about Dunn and as much as you here about EE's defense, they are both still here. He has kept a real core of young, sluggers to hit balls into the moon deck. He didn't WANT a lineup full of sluggers who strikeout alot and play bad defense, so he traded Lopez and Kearns for pitching. I'm not going to tell you he got good value in return, but I think Majewski and Bray will be solid relievers for this team. He felt the need to unload some sluggers, and if you can't trade Griffey I would much rather have EE/Dunn then Lopez/Kearns. And as for as many people on this board wanting Griffey out of CF, I'd be glad Kearns is gone if I was you. If he was Griffey would be in CF.

Then Krivsky hasn't traded anything of much value out of his farm system. Bruce, Bailey, Votto, and Cueto all are not going to be touched. That is the core of the farm system, and all guys that will be in Cincy in the next 2-3 years. Now, I am not going to tell you he had the greatest draft in the world his first year, but I am also not going to say he can't draft either after that year. If Stubbs can eventually come up, hit decently and play a GG CF, that is what Wayne is looking for.

I think people can't look past THE TRADE and all the bullpen guys he has gone after. As for the trade, I am not going to make an excuse for it. It's a trade that can not and should not have been made. However, Krivsky has made alot more good trade then bad ones. Say what you want about how Ross and Hatteberg and to a lesser extent Phillips are due for down years, but until I see it those were all very solid moves as they stand right now. When you look at the crappy bullpen he started out with (and the crappy starting staff) Krivsky had to get alot of arms. He is still looking for the right combinations of guys to fit in. Also, say want you want about the old guys like Coninie and Hatteberg he signed, but those are strictly fill in guys until younger prospects get up here. The thing I like about Wayne is he didn't hand out abunch of stupid contracts this offseason, but in my mind he undoubtly improved the team.

Wayne is all about pitching, defense, and prospects, and he is carrying that out right now. You are watching a team transform from a bad team that hit the ball out of the yard, struck out alot, and played bad defense, to an improving team he plays solid D, pitches well, and has some sluggers in between. Wayne has done a good job of making the transition smoothly.

I agree.

I am thrilled that Wayne has not traded a single top prospect from the farm system and yet has worked his you know what off improving the team.

[MrCinatit]

Are you sure that wasn't DanO?

I can't recall.

I believe Dan0's ultimate downfall came from sitting on his hands and not showing any ability to sign Dunn. All Dan had been able to accomplish was to sign the younger players to a series of one-year contracts. Except for LaRue.
It took Wayne to come in and get the Dunn contract dunn.

Very nice move, btw. 12 million now is very reasonable - 12 million five years from now could be a freaking steal.

[Matt700wlw]

His downfall was also trading Casey for garbage.

Castellini didn't like that.

[Sabo Fan]

Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

While it's not a popular opinion at the moment, I agree with this to a point. I think it's highly unlikely that Arroyo repeats his 2006 numbers and settles in at about leage average starter material for the remainder of his stay with the Reds, or basically duplicates his 2005 season, with a small improvement because he'll be in the NL. I'm concerned about his struggles in July and August of last year as an indicator that he may either wear down or that NL hitters had adjusted to his stuff. With Harang, it's obvious that he's had success for a few years in this league while with Arroyo I'm wondering if 2006 is an outlier and he'll just regress to the mean next year and the Reds will be stuck with a guy who isn't much more than a #4 starter making #2 starter money.

Simply put, it's not the worst move in the world, but Arroyo had a real nice deal for the next two years from a team standpoint, one that made him very marketable should the desire arise to move him. Now, should he not perform up to expectations in 2007 he all of a sudden becomes extremely hard to move. Personally, I would have cashed him in this winter when teams were spending wildly on pitching mediocrity.