K Rosenthal on the possibility of Griffey to RF

[Cyclone792]

I like Denorfia. I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest he can be an average centerfielder, at least, from an offensive standpoint. But I do not understand the source of this kind of praise for his prowess as a defender. He played all of 85 innings in CF for the Reds last year and posted a 2.11 range factor, per Baseball Reference. That's low. Griffey's ws 2.43 and Freel's was 2.95. League average was 2.58. People will say, oh, small sample size invalidates Deno's number here. I ask, well, what's the evidence then? Watching him play in person? If so, when does sample size factor into the validity of on-the-premises-eyewitness evidence? Is 85 innings enough to justify putting him in Cameron's company? Or do you just need to see him make a couple of nice grabs?

Is the BA rating the source of this high-flying praise?

Like I said, I like Denorfia and I hope he gets a shot. But until he landed the BA defensive tip o' the hat in 06, he'd never been tagged as a superb defender. He was known as a solid all around player with no outstanding tools, one of the tools being defense. In the course of his time in the minors, he's played all 3 OF spots -- he was never groomed as a pure CF. So, my take is that the flowing tributes to Deno as a CF are premature. Personally, I doubt he's better than Freel overall -- my guess is that he's got less range but more smarts, though it's difficult to say if Freel would learn the position better with more time out there and thus cut down on taking bad risks.

Like I said, I don't buy that Deno is in Mike Cameron territory out there. But I'm anxious to hear how folks have come to that conclusion.

Range factor is an awful measuring stick for defense, especially with that sample size. In fact, his current sample size renders most defensive stats meaningless at the moment, but I will throw in the fact that Denorfia did post a .909 zone rating in center field last season, whatever that's worth given the sample size. Freel's was .877, and Griffey's was .822.

I know Denorfia's BA rating, and I've seen Denorfia's defense in person so I can verify that he deserves every ounce of that BA rating. Like M2 said awhile back, Denorfia's break and line to the ball is just simply pretty to watch.

I posted the following a month ago, and it still stands ...

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Freel's an above average defensive center fielder, and he's willing to dive for everything that's within his reach. Those are the plays people remember, and it's always the end of said plays that get the highlights. The problem is Freel's initial jump on balls is actually rather lousy, and the initial jump is something you'll rarely see on TV yet it's plainly visible from the box seats. His biggest problem is immediately judging the depth of a fly ball. He'll break in on balls that'll go over his head, and he'll break back on balls that wouldn't reach his position. One result of those bad jumps is some of the diving catches Freel makes wouldn't have required a diving catch if he had read the ball correctly off the bat initially. Luckily, Freel has the speed to oftentimes make up for his poor first read, though sometimes his bad jump has cost him.

Denorfia gets a much better jump on balls in the outfield than Freel, and he'll also take a better direct line to the spot on the field he has to be at to make the catch. He is the exact blueprint any team would want in a center fielder defensively, because he does everything very well defensively. The downside is if you're stuck watching him on television, you're robbed of seeing half of what makes Denorfia a great center fielder since you'll never see his first jump, where he was at in center when the bat made contact with the ball, or his full, direct line to the ball; you'll only see the end of the play as he's gliding over to make what looks like an easy grab.

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As for the Reds playing Denorfia around the outfield instead of specifically and only in center field, that's what the Reds used to do in their system a few years ago, and they may still do it now to a degree. They did it with Kearns, Dunn, Pena, and Denorfia so I wouldn't read anything into it. Last season, 76 percent of Denorfia's defensive innings came in center field, though. Jay Bruce last season split his time equally between center and right.

[lollipopcurve]

Range factor is an awful measuring stick for defense, especially with that sample size. In fact, his current sample size renders most defensive stats meaningless at the moment, but I will throw in the fact that Denorfia did post a .909 zone rating in center field last season, whatever that's worth given the sample size. Freel's was .877, and Griffey's was .822.

I know Denorfia's BA rating, and I've seen Denorfia's defense in person so I can verify that he deserves every ounce of that BA rating. Like M2 said awhile back, Denorfia's break and line to the ball is just simply pretty to watch.

Well, I'll educate myself on the differences between RF and UZR, but, as you suggest, 43 innings in CF in 2005 is an awfully small sample size. How was his UZR vs Freel in 85 innings in 06? Is that data available?
So, it seems we're left with the eyesight evaluations of folks who are not professional scouts. Personally, I've seen enough of Freel to think we covers a lot of ground out there. I am by no means convinced that Deno can cover what Freel does, though I do agree that his semi-loping style has aesthetic merit.

Until a valid sample size has come in, I remain a long way from recognizing Deno as a Mike Cameron caliber defender in CF. And I'm not hating here, just trying to understand where folks are coming from.

[reds44]

My point was, Rosenthal shouldn't be getting trashed for saying what he said. Denorfia is not a guy you look at and say, there is your replacement to Griffey right there. That being said, I think he should be in CF with Griffey in RF.

[kbrake]

Freel cannot be the everyday CF for the same reason Griffey shouldn't. Neither one has the ability to stay healthy for a full season. This is where the extra relievers the Reds have should start being used. Package Freel and Coffey and see what that gets you. I would think that combo should bring in a pretty good CF.

Griffey moving has nothing to do with health. He flat out cant play CF anymore. The Reds can try to dress this move up all they want but the fact is we need someone who can cover ground in CF.

[RedsManRick]

Griffey moving has nothing to do with health. He flat out cant play CF anymore. The Reds can try to dress this move up all they want but the fact is we need someone who can cover ground in CF.

Yeah, it's an interesting observation that the motivation for the position switch, at least that which has been given publicly, is about keeping Junior healthy. The explanation has nothing to do with the fact that Junior is the worst regular defensive CF in baseball. He could play 162 games next year and still belongs in RF.

[Caveat Emperor]

Yeah, it's an interesting observation that the motivation for the position switch, at least that which has been given publicly, is about keeping Junior healthy. The explanation has nothing to do with the fact that Junior is the worst regular defensive CF in baseball. He could play 162 games next year and still belongs in RF.

The only injury the Reds are really trying to guard against is one to Griffey's pride.

Cyclone made a lot of great points, but the best one was as to cost -- if you can get above-average defense and league-average offensive production out of your CF for league-minimum cost and no added cost of players traded, then you'd be foolish to pass that up, especially when the alternative is genuinely awful defense.

[blumj]

Yeah, it's an interesting observation that the motivation for the position switch, at least that which has been given publicly, is about keeping Junior healthy. The explanation has nothing to do with the fact that Junior is the worst regular defensive CF in baseball. He could play 162 games next year and still belongs in RF.

Well, they have to say something, and they sure as hell can't say that.

[redsmetz]

Well, they have to say something, and they sure as hell can't say that.

Yeah, we have some real Dale Carnegie graduates around here sometimes.

[Eric_Davis]

Wouldn't Josh Hamilton have to play a whole season in AA/AAA first to prove himself?

The one who said that Denorfia should get the same shot that Hamilton is going to get is right. The REDS are acting as if they're going to cut Hamilton if they don't see what they want to see this spring.

[Eric_Davis]

The problems with Junior will never end until he leaves this franchise. Sad that one player can handcuff an organization for so long.

[kbrake]

Well, they have to say something, and they sure as hell can't say that.

Why not? Its is not a knock on Junior. I really like Griffey and even though the Reds might be better off without him, I am glad he is on the team. With that being said though I dont think it should be insulting to Griffey that the Reds want to move him to RF. The guy has a leg held together by metal. I think he plays as hard as anyone when he is out there and I think he has given a great effort to play the past few seasons with a body that just doesnt seem to want to allow him to play. I know it is easier when its not you that has to accept reality and move on, but I wish the Reds would just thank Griffey for what he has done in CF and tell him he will be moved to RF this year. And he wont get to hit 3rd anymore.

[pedro]

I like Denorfia. I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest he can be an average centerfielder, at least, from an offensive standpoint. But I do not understand the source of this kind of praise for his prowess as a defender. He played all of 85 innings in CF for the Reds last year and posted a 2.11 range factor, per Baseball Reference. That's low. Griffey's ws 2.43 and Freel's was 2.95. League average was 2.58. People will say, oh, small sample size invalidates Deno's number here. I ask, well, what's the evidence then? Watching him play in person? If so, when does sample size factor into the validity of on-the-premises-eyewitness evidence? Is 85 innings enough to justify putting him in Cameron's company? Or do you just need to see him make a couple of nice grabs?

Is the BA rating the source of this high-flying praise?

Like I said, I like Denorfia and I hope he gets a shot. But until he landed the BA defensive tip o' the hat in 06, he'd never been tagged as a superb defender. He was known as a solid all around player with no outstanding tools, one of the tools being defense. In the course of his time in the minors, he's played all 3 OF spots -- he was never groomed as a pure CF. So, my take is that the flowing tributes to Deno as a CF are premature. Personally, I doubt he's better than Freel overall -- my guess is that he's got less range but more smarts, though it's difficult to say if Freel would learn the position better with more time out there and thus cut down on taking bad risks.

Like I said, I don't buy that Deno is in Mike Cameron territory out there. But I'm anxious to hear how folks have come to that conclusion.

In addition to the anecdotal evidence of having watched him play and being impressed by his defense I have to go on the fact that he was voted the best defensive CF in the International League last year. That has to be worth something.

[Eric_Davis]

This team has way too many pitching holes to be trading people off for a CF when we already have one, at some point you have to accept that you won't have an allstar at every spot on the field, even after only 164 PA's Deno's OBP is good enough to be a starter.

That's true. An amazing OBP for as few of at-bats as he's had in the Majors.

You're also so right about not expecting every hole to be fixed. The Mets are considered by many to have the best outfield in the NL, and they'll be lucky if they end up getting a combined 700 AB's between Alou and Green, and those games will be a virtual circus out on the field.

We all know here that the biggest decision affecting the REDS this year is moving Junior out of Center Field. Why spend all that money on SS if you plan on keeping the NL's worst Center Fielder from last year at the same spot?

The Dale Carnegie reference was appropriate because the goal is to get Griffey out of Center, but if you can get him to think that he's making the decision it just makes for better relationships all the way around the club.

It's a problem that definitely will be best solved using Dale Carnegie's principles.

We're smiling for you, Junior.

[Eric_Davis]

In addition to the anecdotal evidence of having watched him play and being impressed by his defense I have to go on the fact that he was voted the best defensive CF in the International League last year. That has to be worth something.

What more of an endorsement does one need? Guess Rosenthal wrote about something that he doesn't understand. He clearly failed to do any research on the matter.

[Eric_Davis]

Craig Monroe is a solid player on one of the best outfields in the Majors. He's never been an outstanding hitter, but he has always been a good RBI guy. His strength was his defense when he was younger and he entered the league as an "older" rookie. Stats people wanted to get rid of this guy every year including last year, but he just keeps giving the Tigers serviceable years. He's turned into a hot and cold player that can carry the Tigers for a month or be terrible where he should be batting 9th in the order. Denorfia offers at least this much.