Wide Open (NL Central Side by Side by Side)

[TheWalls]

I'm sitting here comparing the starting 8, five most like starters and end of the pens for the Reds, Cards, Cubs and Brewers side by side.

The Brewers may be the most balanced, have the most upside with the youngsters, and the best pen. The Cards look old (Edmonds, Rolen, Encarnacion) and really thin at pitcher, but they have exceptional clutch hitting. The Cubs look like an incredibly expensive 85 win team that will have nice stats and a crappy record.

The Reds certainly don't look outclassed across the board. I think the top of the order will be able to manufacture runs, we have decent thumpers in the middle of the lineup and the bottom will keep pitchers honest. The defense other than the left side is good, especially if Junior moves to RF and I think the starters and pen both compare quite favorably.

I am struck by how all of these rosters are fragile to injuries to key players.

Take a look. (Sorry, the editor won't let me space better)

Reds Cards Cubs Brewers
1B Hatteberg Pujols Lee Fielder
2B Phillips Kennedy De Rosa Weeks
SS Gonzalez Eckstein Izturis Hardy
3B Encarnacion Rolen Ramirez Koskie
LF Dunn Duncan Murton Jenkins
CF Griffey Edmonds Soriano Hall
RF Freel Encarnacion Jones Hart
C Ross Molina Barrett Estrada

SP1 Harang Carpenter ZambranoCapuano
SP2 Arroyo Wells Lilly Sheets
SP3 Milton Reyes Marquis Suppan
SP4 Lohse Wainright Hill Bush
SP5 Saarlos Looper Prior Vargas

BP1 Stanton Isringhausen Dempster Cordero
BP2 Weathers Rincon Wood Wise
BP3 Coffey Flores Howry Turnbow
BP4 Bray Hancock Eyre Capellan

[savafan]

On paper, the Reds don't look far off the mark as far as being able to compete in their own division, it's once the playoffs start that bothers me.

[dabvu2498]

Double post

[dabvu2498]

On paper, the Reds don't look far off the mark as far as being able to compete in their own division, it's once the playoffs start that bothers me.

Playoffs?

[Redhook]

Playoffs?

[Heath]

On paper, the Reds don't look far off the mark as far as being able to compete in their own division, it's once the playoffs start that bothers me.

The following is a bad statement -

If the Reds made the playoffs, I'd be thrilled. I could care less if they got swept. They made it.

[vaticanplum]

If the Reds made the playoffs, I'd be thrilled. I could care less if they got swept. They made it.

I feel the same way right now.

I doubt I'd feel that way once they got there. I doubt you would either :

[savafan]

playoffs=post season=championship series=fantasy land

[jojo]

The Cards look old (Edmonds, Rolen, Encarnacion) and really thin at pitcher, but they have exceptional clutch hitting.

The Cards have the best rotation in the division.

I won't even comment about the clutch hitting because it's so completely trumped by the Reds increased defensive IQ and heart.

[savafan]

The Cards have the best rotation in the division.

The Cards have the rotation most likely to spend the season on the DL as well.

[reds44]

The Cards have the best rotation in the division.

:

Your kidding right?

Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes (era north of 5 last year), Adam Wainwright (hasn't started in the majors, but I think he's the best of the 3), and Braden Looper strikes fear in my heart.

[dunner13]

Your kidding right?

Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes (era north of 5 last year), Adam Wainwright (hasn't started in the majors, but I think he's the best of the 3), and Braden Looper strikes fear in my heart.

Braden Looper could be our best player this year. Im betting dunn gets at least 5 homeruns off looper alone.

[Eric_Davis]

Your kidding right?

Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes (era north of 5 last year), Adam Wainwright (hasn't started in the majors, but I think he's the best of the 3), and Braden Looper strikes fear in my heart.

The Cards may have the worst starting rotation in the division.

[jojo]

The Cards may have the worst starting rotation in the division.

Actually no, they may have one of the best rotations in the divsion on paper. Here's their projected starter's Pecota ERAs. Their number 5 in this scenario is Mulder and he is the only guy projected to have an ERA that is below league average and its only just below.

Carpenter 3.39
A. Reyes 3.91
Wainright 4.01
Wells 4.62
Mulder 4.82

St Louis, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Houstan all, if healthy, have better rotations than the Reds. The key is health and when Clemens decides to pitch. The Reds need to hope for alot of sore arms and tight shoulders.

[PuffyPig]

Actually no, they may have one of the best rotations in the divsion on paper. Here's their projected starter's Pecota ERAs.
Carpenter 3.39
A. Reyes 3.91
Wainright 4.01
Wells 4.62
Mulder 4.82

I'll believe that Reyes can post a sub 4 ERA over a full season when he actually does it. Wainwright hasn't started a major league game in his life, and wasn't a stud minor league starter.

I'd be surprised if any of their 2-5 starters listed above can hit 160 innings for the season.