The happiest people don't need the best of every-thing; they make the best of everything they have.
'Life isn't about how to survive the storm,
but how to dance in the rain.'
Burn down the disco. Hang the blessed DJ. Because the music that he constantly plays, it says nothing to me about my life.
If Bray turns into anything near B.J.Ryan, the trade with Washington will be a success for the Reds. Pitching is the most difficult commodity in baseball to develope, trade for, and/or sign. And, like any trade, only time can fairly measure the value of the trade with the Nationals.
If Kearns continues to annually put up 20 homers, 85 RBI's, and a .265 average, he will be a journeyman corner outfielder who will move from team to team just like Reggie Sanders, Preston Wilson, Moises Alou, Juan Encarnacion, Jeromy Burnitz and all the other good, but not great, outfielders.
As a good hit-no field second baseman, Lopez will surely follow the same path as all the others of similar ilk, Todd Walker, Mark Grudzielanek, Tony Womack, Ron Belliard, and Marcus Giles. Smart teams move the Kearnses and Lopezes of the world because they don't want to waste money on players who are easily replaced.
Last edited by Spitball; 02-18-2007 at 09:41 PM.
"I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton
Though Kearns and Lopez have amassed essentially the same number of Win Shares to date as Ryan even after he turned into B.J. Ryan. A better comparable for Bray would be Mike Stanton, whose value has been in longevity, not excellence.
That's an odd grouping in terms of career value. Alou and Sanders, though they've made a lot of stops, probably rank in the top 50 RFs of all time. If Kearns goes on to have a career like those two then we should wail openly.Originally Posted by Spitball
Jose Vidro would be the comp I'd use. I'll be fairly amazed if Lopez doesn't surpass the first four guys on your list.Originally Posted by Spitball
Hmm, I'm all over the place agreeing and disagreeing with that statement. Guys like Kearns and Lopez aren't/weren't easily replaced. They left a huge hole last year and the Reds still haven't filled it.Originally Posted by Spitball
They're also unqualified bargains in the current market.
That said, I agree that they were good players to move. The Reds had to turn some bats into arms, following in the vein of the Wily Mo Pena and Jose Guillen trades. So, while they were the right guys to move, the point isn't to get rid of them, it's to trade them for a quality return. That's where the Reds blew it and it's the source of complaint.
One of Kearns or Lopez for Bray would have been a gamble, but one you could at least view as a long-term play. Majewski's where it all falls apart. He's not all that good when he's healthy and he's got persistent arm trouble to boot. So you're talking about trading two productive everyday players for one gamble on a lefty reliever. That's not something smart teams do.
As for the historical significance of the deal, it profiles as pretty awful. Has the franchise done worse? Sure, but that doesn't excuse the putridity of this one.
Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong
I'm witchcrafting everybody.
The long view is great (time heals all wounds, blah, blah, blah)--but the fact is, a team's fortunes in the middle of the season comprise three days: yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Everything else (including next season) is meaningless.
Ryan was about the same age as Bray when he was traded by the Reds and no one felt he was an all-star closer in the making. The former 17th round pick threw hard, but he was all over the place with his pitches and his mechanics. He was not as good a pitcher as Bray at similar stages of their careers.
Bray was a first round pick, chosen right after Jered Weaver. Even if he was picked too early, he was easily a late round one or round two pick. He has legitimate potential to develop into a power closer, but we will have to wait before we can proclaim the development settled.
As stated, Bray is already developing faster than than Ryan. At the baseline, Bray is starting with greater potential than Ryan, but of course there are lots of factors to reaching perceived potential.It should be noted that Ryan didn't do anything worth mentioning until he was age 27. If Bray takes another four years to break through I'm going out on a limb and predicting he won't be with the Reds when it happens.
Is the first statement designed to prove the second? I don't believe it does because the second statement is merely an unsubstantiated opinion.Though Kearns and Lopez have amassed essentially the same number of Win Shares to date as Ryan even after he turned into B.J. Ryan. A better comparable for Bray would be Mike Stanton, whose value has been in longevity, not excellence.
My point was obviously that the mentioned outfielders were well travelled because they are good not great players at a position that is easy to develop or sign. The right fielder should be one of the top three offensive players on the team, and I don't believe Kearns will ever develop into that type of player on a good team. He just isn't that good. His pre-trade line playing half his games in a hitters' park was .274/.351/.492, which was not bad except he is a right fielder. They should be hitting better. Kearns struckout nearly 25% of the time and grounded into double plays better than 10% times he came to bat with a runner on first. He was a poor hitter with runners on base and scoring position (I believe he actually cost the Reds 3.6 runs). Kearns created (park adjusted) only 4.83 runs for ever 27 outs while with the Reds last season. He was an average offensive player, playing a position in which better offense should be expected, on the verge of arbitration. He was also injury prone, overweight, under motivated, and a year removed from minor league demotion. Kearns had very little trade value, but he still needed to be moved.That's an odd grouping in terms of career value. Alou and Sanders, though they've made a lot of stops, probably rank in the top 50 RFs of all time. If Kearns goes on to have a career like those two then we should wail openly.
Well, you may be amazed, but that is just your opnion. Between 2001 and 2004, Lopez was not a very good player. In 2005, he had a very good year, but 16 of his 23 homers were first row shots at GAB. Last year, he showed regression. Which Lopez will it be? Throw out 2005 and you have little merit for suggesting Lopez will surpass the second basemen I mentioned.Jose Vidro would be the comp I'd use. I'll be fairly amazed if Lopez doesn't surpass the first four guys on your list.
Lopez and Kearns were not/are not good enough players to merit takng significant budget room.
Well, we could argue the historical merit of anything, but it (history) requires time truly to measure the significanceAs for the historical significance of the deal, it profiles as pretty awful.
"I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton
2006 Redzone mock Draftee's- 1(st) Daniel Bard(redsox), 1(st sup)( Jordan Walden (Angels), 2(nd) rd.- Zach Britton(Orioles), 3(rd) Blair Erickson(Cardinals), 3(rd) Tim Norton( Yankees),(cuz its a Tim Hortons thing
Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.
How about trading Paul O'Neill?
or losing Trevor Hoffman in the expansion draft?
or trading Jeff Montgomery for nothing?
There's a ton of things this org has done throughout the years that are way worse than "the trade"
Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun
Lots of better guys have slipped through this franchised skinny hands over the years.
SARASOTA, Fla. -- Reliever Gary Majewski wanted to leave talk about his sore shoulder in the past.
The Reds hoped a new season and fresh start for Majewski would quell criticism that they acquired damaged goods last summer.
Neither desire was feasible, at least not yet anyway.
As Reds pitchers and catchers held their first workout on Sunday afternoon, Majewski was being held back. The 27-year-old right-hander's throwing shoulder became sore again in January while performing his offseason throwing program.
"I was working out one day and it just popped up on me," said Majewski, who flew to Cincinnati last month to be seen by team medical director Dr. Tim Kremchek. "It was the same spot. It was a matter of getting to the bottom of it. We found out what it was and we're good."
Instead of Majewski participating fully in workouts with the rest of the pitchers, the medical staff limited him to a rehabilitation throwing program for the next week to build arm strength. That means no working off a mound.
Under new baseball rules, the medical department is no longer allowed to provide injury updates about players to the media.
"Everything I've heard is he should be ready to go pretty quick," Reds manager Jerry Narron said. "But anytime someone can't start the first day with all the drills everybody else does, it'll always be a concern. We'll see where he is."
Majewski was allowed to play catch before the workout began but stopped throwing earlier than the other pitchers. When pitchers threw a ball to home plate during fielding drills, Majewski lightly simulated the motion without a ball in his right hand.
"We're probably being overly cautious but I'd rather err on that side than do something where he could have a setback," Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said.
In an eight-player trade that sent popular hitters Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to the Nationals on July 13, the Reds acquired Majewski and Bill Bray with hopes of improving their bullpen.
The move backfired when Majewski was hit hard and posted a 12.54 ERA over his first 11 appearances. He was placed on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation on Aug. 7.
That day began a saga of controversy that has yet to find conclusion.
On the day he was placed on the DL, Majewski revealed to the media he had been sore since participating in March's World Baseball Classic. He also disclosed that he received a cortisone injection from the Nationals' medical staff only a few days before the trade.
Krivsky claimed that Washington GM Jim Bowden did not disclose the injury or the injection. Krivsky later threatened to file a grievance against the Nationals for not dealing fairly, but that grievance has yet to be filed. He would not comment Sunday on the issue's status.
Many Reds fans and those in media circles have roundly criticized Krivsky for dealing away too much offense for what Cincinnati received in return. Another twist came in December, when Nationals head trainer Tim Abraham resigned, citing family reasons. A Nationals spokesman insisted, however, that Abraham's departure had nothing to do with the Majewski issue.
After he was activated from the DL Aug. 31, Majewski posted a 1.59 ERA and said the rest returned his shoulder to feeling 100 percent again. He finished the season with an 8.40 ERA in 19 games for the Reds, and a 4.61 ERA in 65 games overall with Washington and Cincinnati.
Majewski and the Reds were optimistic this latest setback wouldn't keep him down for long.
"They'll re-evaluate the throwing program and see what I need to do," Majewski said. "It's not going to be like a guy coming off of surgery and going real slow. It's probably going to be a little more intense to build it up."
"The staff isn't concerned so I'm not," Krivsky said. "If he's a little behind, I'd rather get him 100 percent before he starts throwing. That's the recommendation I've been given so that's what we're going to do."
All I hope at this point is that WK learned a lot from that deal.
His scapula is tired?
(Psst...Doc? Hey Doc. The scapula is a bone. Bones don't get tired.)
Makes all the routine posts.