Topics that should be off limits (M. Chass-NYT)

[Triples]

[QUOTE=BRM;1250420]I think most people would agree with you on that. I know I would. The problem is banking on those washed up players having one more moment of glory as a key to your team's success. When it happens, it's a nice bonus and you should roll with it. Just don't bet the house on it happening.[/QUOTE


But isn't the "washed up player" or the "emerging talent" doing something great what is really fun about this game. It makes us feel good about the game, it's what gives us hope for our team, its what keeps us coming back to see something else exciting and unexpected? Case in point, wouldn't we all love to see JR have a 1990's kind of year? Not just for what it would do for the club in the standings but how we would feel about it? Isn't that more fun & doesn't that make us want to go to the ballpark the next night to see what he might do next more than seeing the allstar caliber player playing at the level we expect him to. For the small % of the people who truly understand the game seeing a Derek Jeter play is a pleasure but for the other 99% of the baseball fans, they want to see something special happening that sets a player apart. IMO

[BRM]

I agree. I don't recall saying or reading anything to the contrary.

[redsmetz]

Frankly, I'm not sure you understand what you're talking about, RedsMetz. With all due respect, I don't think that so-called 'stat mongers' ever claimed to be looking past the human element. In my opinion, the 'intangibles' of a baseball situation (a retirement, a miraculous comeback, a particularly gritty dive in the outfield) are indeed part of why all fans watch the game. And yes, I'll admit that sometimes the new stats look and feel absurd to those of us who love to clutch HR, RBI and BA statlines to our chests, remembering them from our Eric Davis baseball cards from 1987.

Well that's always an open question as to whether I understand what I'm talking about. It's been said more than once that it's possible I may just be talking to hear my head rattle.

Here's the crux of my previous post:

Too often, some of this data is given a predetermination that overlooks that human element. Peope rising above their past, overcoming adversity and limitations that adds to the beauty of this game.

There's my beef. Folks toss out PECOTA and such and talk as if it's prediction is forgone conclusion. I know that many of the traditional statistical measures fall short (a perfect example is the judgement of relief pitchers which until recently rarely examined all those bleeping runners scoring that had no impact on their personal statistics - I often wondered that back in the 70's with McEnaney and Eastwick).

Again though, while the numbers can be helpful, they don't completely tell the human story. It feels as if the plethora of statistical possibilities suck the life out of the game itself. Of course, it doesn't help when they're thrown around willy nilly and all the letters start to look like E I E I O or LSMFT. That doesn't negate them, but the games still have to be played. Otherwise we're just playing Strat O Matic or APBA.

[Cedric]

Well that's always an open question as to whether I understand what I'm talking about. It's been said more than once that it's possible I may just be talking to hear my head rattle.

Here's the crux of my previous post:



There's my beef. Folks toss out PECOTA and such and talk as if it's prediction is forgone conclusion. I know that many of the traditional statistical measures fall short (a perfect example is the judgement of relief pitchers which until recently rarely examined all those bleeping runners scoring that had no impact on their personal statistics - I often wondered that back in the 70's with McEnaney and Eastwick).

Again though, while the numbers can be helpful, they don't completely tell the human story. It feels as if the plethora of statistical possibilities suck the life out of the game itself. Of course, it doesn't help when they're thrown around willy nilly and all the letters start to look like E I E I O or LSMFT. That doesn't negate them, but the games still have to be played. Otherwise we're just playing Strat O Matic or APBA.

Well I don't think anyone is arguing that here. Of course some fans are going to just through out an OPS or VORP and think that ends the debate. That shouldn't oveerride the majority though that actually respect the other facets of the game and can debate accordingly.

The narrow debate tactics aren't done often on this site though and those people are usually shot down by their own "stat head" crew.

[westofyou]

Otherwise we're just playing Strat O Matic or APBA.

Big Draft this saturday.... any sleepers anyone want to throw out there?

I have a power park and the 6th pick.

Folks toss out PECOTA and such and talk as if it's prediction is forgone conclusion.

A drafted my fantasy team strictly on PECOTA last year and had my worst season by far.

It totally crashed on the pitcher side for me.

That doesn't negate them

But Mr. Chass is trying exactly that he wants to to negate them, by deriding them and how they are studied and received, in fact his manner is more combative then dismissive and that essentially masks his inability to let those types of stats into what he obviously feels is a domain that he has the ability to discern what is good for it and what is bad for it.

IMO Thats' exactly what the game doesn't need.

[RedEye]

There's my beef. Folks toss out PECOTA and such and talk as if it's prediction is forgone conclusion. I know that many of the traditional statistical measures fall short (a perfect example is the judgement of relief pitchers which until recently rarely examined all those bleeping runners scoring that had no impact on their personal statistics - I often wondered that back in the 70's with McEnaney and Eastwick).

Again though, while the numbers can be helpful, they don't completely tell the human story. It feels as if the plethora of statistical possibilities suck the life out of the game itself. Of course, it doesn't help when they're thrown around willy nilly and all the letters start to look like E I E I O or LSMFT. That doesn't negate them, but the games still have to be played. Otherwise we're just playing Strat O Matic or APBA.

Thanks for your candor, Redsmetz. I certainly don't want to lump you with all the traditionalists I've been badmouthing.

I understand your beef with PECOTA. On the other hand, I think it's going to take a really long time before the sabermetricians outnumber the traditional baseball people. In fact, the only place where that might be the case is on places like RedsZone. In real baseball, there are still far more people who want to throw out players who strike out, who don't "play the game as its supposed to be played", and who aren't "clutch" enough.

And if you're worried about letters getting thrown around "willy nilly", well I understand that, too. It can be pretty intimidating... especially for people like me who weren't too hot at math or acronyms in high school. All I can say is that if you take some time to understand what these things mean, it can really open your eyes. I love HR, RBI, and BA just as much as the next guy. And for all we know, our children will love OBP, OPS, and VORP. Sort of like moving from "Rock Around the Clock" to "Rock the Casbah", eh?

[edabbs44]

But Mr. Chass is trying exact to negate them, by deriding them and how they are studied and received, in fact his manner is more combative then dismissive and that essentially masks his inability to let those types of stats into what he obviously feels is a domain that he has the ability to discern what is good for it and what is bad for it.

IMO Thats' exactly what the game doesn't need.

I think Murray's "head in the sand" position is just as bad as someone who lives and dies by the VORP, RC/27 and OPS theories.

These stats work best when used as part of a discussion. No stat is the be-all, end-all.

But Murray has to get with the times and realize that a lot of these stats are pretty good representations of player performance.

[M2]

Big Draft this saturday.... any sleepers anyone want to throw out there?

I have a power park and the 6th pick.

You must have Reggie Abercrombie, you must have Reggie Abercrombie.

Or, if your aren't considering Strat sepuku, Brian McCann or Josh Bard wouldn't hurt.

Interesting thing about those who assume "stats" folks consider projection to be predeterminism, those of us who do play Strat or APBA would tell you that the numbers aren't completely deterministic in games literally built around the numbers.

[westofyou]

Or, if your aren't considering Strat sepuku, Brian McCann or Josh Bard wouldn't hurt.

Translation... if you value the whole game you'll pick the banging defensive catcher over Hafner or Ramirez.

[M2]

Translation... if you value the whole game you'll pick the banging defensive catcher over Hafner or Ramirez.

Well, they don't suck either.

[IslandRed]

But isn't the "washed up player" or the "emerging talent" doing something great what is really fun about this game. It makes us feel good about the game, it's what gives us hope for our team, its what keeps us coming back to see something else exciting and unexpected? Case in point, wouldn't we all love to see JR have a 1990's kind of year? Not just for what it would do for the club in the standings but how we would feel about it? Isn't that more fun & doesn't that make us want to go to the ballpark the next night to see what he might do next more than seeing the allstar caliber player playing at the level we expect him to. For the small % of the people who truly understand the game seeing a Derek Jeter play is a pleasure but for the other 99% of the baseball fans, they want to see something special happening that sets a player apart. IMO

I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't see any of that being in the slightest conflict with being a "stats guy." I lap up statistical analysis when playing armchair GM. And then the game starts and I root for the Reds.

As for what fans enjoy, everyone's different. Junior staying healthy and going off for a 40/120 season would be a huge story, one everyone would enjoy, not to mention making us a better ballclub. I also think that "all-star caliber players playing at the level we expect them to" describes the Big Red Machine pretty well, and we were OK with that too.

[westofyou]

Well, they don't suck either.

Speaking of Suck... I've read a lot of Murray Chass the past decade and I'd say his Value Over Replacement Columnist isn't exactly a world beater number, he's good, sort of like Joe Carter not the best, but in the right place at the right time and he's consistent in one aspect, he churns out columns .

[vaticanplum]

Or, if your aren't considering Strat sepuku, Brian McCann or Josh Bard wouldn't hurt.

Strat what?

[M2]

Strat what?

sepuku - ritualistic suicide practiced by the shogun class in Japan.

[red-in-la]

I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't see any of that being in the slightest conflict with being a "stats guy." I lap up statistical analysis when playing armchair GM. And then the game starts and I root for the Reds.

Oh but there is a conflict. When some folks call others stupid or out-of-touch because they cannot quote the latest PECOTA numbers or care what VORP is, then that is a conflict.

Seems to me that most of these "new stats" were invented by or for the fantasy team players.....as a way to better evaluate INDIVIDUAL player value when the context of the team was removed (because in fantasy leagues, you can have a Red and a Red Sox and a Blue Jay playing right next to each other).

That, in and of itself would be fine if that is where the stats and their users were left. But on this board as in other places where baseball fat is chewed, these stats are often used to bludgeon those who has no interest in them.

In other words, it is no longer acceptable to just say, "I like this pitcher." If you do, you probably will face attack from the stat police.