How do you say a guy is having a pedestrian spring after 3 games?
How do you say a guy is having a pedestrian spring after 3 games?
Last edited by jojo; 03-04-2007 at 08:19 AM.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Brantley commented the most impressive thing he saw with Hamilton was that he went the other way yesterday with some LH reliever's offspeed pitch that Hamilton slapped to left for a line drive single. Yeah I wanna see for myself and Im not expecting him to bat .300, would be happy if he plays solid OF defense and can show some Willie Mo type power in spots...things I think this kid can do easily. Now if he gets to the majors and strikes more than Dunn and has no clue in the field then it was still a good story this spring and go ahead and try to work out a trade with the Marlins because they will probably not want him back anyway if he sucks in the majors.
My bad, jojo! I get it now.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Last edited by Spitball; 03-04-2007 at 09:26 AM.
"I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton
We'll go down in history as the first society that wouldn't save itself because it wasn't cost effective ~ Kurt Vonnegut
Agree on Saarloos. Raving about his movement is nice and all, but if his movement is out of the zone, it won't fool hitters into chasing it unless it is real hard stuff. He doesn't throw hard enough for his type of movement to be successful IMO. For a guy like him success comes when he has movement inside the strike zone. That forces guys to swing and either miss or make poor contact. Seeing how his strike-out to walk rates worsened as he moved up the competition ladder (dramatically fewer K's and more walks), I have to think his movement is frequently out of the zone and hitters are laying off. That would put the pitcher in a position of laying one in there to get the needed strike. Seeing Saarloos high home run rate even though he's is a ground ball pitcher is also evidence of this occurring.
We'll have to see if the story that these numbers tell is true or if Saarloos gets more command of his movement and can keep it in the zone. I'm not real high on him but am a little more optimistic than when he was acquired. The Reds could do worse in the 5 spot but I don't want to expose Belisle or Ramirez to waivers to keep Saarlos around. The Reds need to move a few bodies to protect the guys who could fill cheap back-end or swing man roles in the upcoming years where contention seems like a real possibility.
As for Hamilton, I keep him no matter what. If the Devil Rays won't agree to make him the PTBNL, I keep him around. To me he's a lefty Wily Mo Pena with defensive ability and baseball skills. I do what it takes to make him Reds property and keep him clean. I have to think that if the D-Rays see that they aren't going to get him back anyway, they may make him the PTBNL to avoid giving up another player. The Reds could then send him down and develop him. The Reds just need to not weaken in this area. Acquiring that type of talent is worth the investment of the 25th spot if that remains necessary. He might be a real productive bat by 2009 or so which is when this team really projects to move up into the upper echelon IMO.
I disagree with mth on Saarloos. I don't know what it is, but I have a strong feeling that Kirk Saarloos is going to have a good 2007 season with the Reds. There is just something I like about the guy. His movement on his pitches is very good, which is always a good thing. You mentioned his movement as a downside because he only throws 88, but Arroyo doesn't throw much harder than that and he was able to succeed last season.
I just think with the addition of Gonzalez at SS and Encarnacion at 3B and Phillips at 2B, opposing teams are going to have a hard time pounding groundballs through the Reds infield. You add in the league change and the weaker lineups in the NL and I think that's a recipe for success. I'm not saying Saarloos is gonna win the Cy Young or anything but 170 innings of 4.25 ERA ball is not out of the question. I don't know about you but I would gladly take that out of my fifth starter.
Couldnt have said it beter myself. The kid has too much potential to lose.
Not based on what he has done in 3 games but rather what he was projected to be and "possibly" still can be. He is a Wily Mo in "situation" only. I rather think more as you said in "ability" and "skills" he has definitely a far far greater up-side.
He may go 0-12 in the next 3 games but the potential is truly too much to lose.
To add to the Hamilton conversation, remember that last season the Reds went with 12 pitchers and 3 catchers for much of the season and kept the next-to-useless Quinton McCracken on the roster as the 25th man (until DFA'd). Even if completely lost and overwhelmed, Hamilton can easily replicate that level of play, and he has upside.
Best case scenario is that the Rays let the Reds keep him as the aforementioned PTBNL in the Harris deal...that way the Reds can get him the PAs he will need to get up to speed. It would probably be what is best for the kid, and the Rays aren't going to get anything for him anyway as the Reds would likely keep him at the big league level to retain him, so they should agree (may as well) to do what is best for the kid. They have NO obligation whatsoever to do so, but it is still what I would like to see.
Hamilton looked lost at the IS game on Wednesday on a couple of breaking pitches and a change, but was able to draw a walk in one AB and looked much better adjusted in the next day's game which I also attended. I'm not a scout, so take my observation with a sizeable grain of salt.
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