The problem with comparing Livingston to Moyer, is that every single slop lefty who can't top 90 mph in the last decade seasons gets compared to Moyer (Or Tom Glavine for that matter).
Moyer is Livingston (and others) 90th percentile of what he could be.
Because of the speed he throws at, people tend to forget that Moyer has been a very good pitcher for a very long time.
Those guys are quite the rare commodity.
EDIT - I see doug stated my exact point in about half the words just before I did.
Considering the Reds pitching woes any chance of success for a guy who is 25 is worth a shot. If the guy can learn how to change speeds effectively throw him in Louisville and call him up midyear. Sure as hell beats the crap out of the 35 year old fodder like Chris Michalak.Originally Posted by dougdirt
Maddux was the best pitcher in the National League pitching in the mid to upper 80's. He was about movement and location.
Glavine now pitches between 82 and 86. He has always been about location.Glavine at least throws in the high 80s.
Hoffman has successfully pitched in the mid-80's since the late 90's. He pitches off that 81 mph change-up like most pitch off their fastball.Hoffman also could hit 95 in his prime.
Williams' four seamer tops out around 87. His two seamer is a few notches slower.Williams throws in the low 90s.
He certainly does not pitch at 90. His fastball is 86-88, and he depends on a lot of movement and location with his curve and change.Capuano tops out at about 90.
He might not be successful, but lots of teams gave up on Moyer because he didn't throw hard. Soft tossers Tommy John and John Tudor were winning pitchers by changing speeds,hitting spots, and setting up hitters. They were also viewed as long shots.I guess what I am looking at is the number of guys who throw their fastballs in the mid 80s have very little chance to be successful. I am not going to hold my breath on Livingston.
"I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton
Exactly Moyer has been a good pitcher because of his ability to change speeds. While pitchers who are consistent might be rare, use Moyer as model and if it works, that's awesome. The assumption was because he can't throw fast that he's not a good pitcher. It's not what you have, it's how you use what you have. If Livingston can learn to use what he has to his benefit as Jamie Moyer has, then that's great. If not he'll fall into the Chris Michalak category.
I am not so sure the Reds have pitching woes outside of Milton, and he isnt going anywhere. I would rather give that "shot" to someone with like Saarloos or Ramirez.
I think alot of people forget that when Hamilton came out of HS he was touted as being a better player at that time than both Griffey and Arod. Now, that being said, he's still got a looooooooong way to go. He needs to surround himself with good people along the way.
Look, I'm not saying that he has no chance or anything, but I don't see any speical skills that he has that sets him apart from the usual soft tossing pitcher that gets shelled at the major league level. He has a chance, but he's going to have to improve significantly, and i don't see anything in him that shows that he should.
I don't think anyone is arguing about taking a flyer on Livingston.... I think the argument is with the notion that he's going to be consistently good for 12 wins a year or that he's the next 200 game winning soft-tossing lefty (i.e. Moyer)...
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
No...but several teams passed on Moyer before he was finally recognized as a viable starting pitcher. I love watching Moyer pitch. Like Arroyo, he adjusts to a batter and controls the at bat. He takes some off, then he adds some. He throws a backdoor slider and then gets the batter out on his front foot on a change. He makes his 84 mph fastball look like 94 because he sets the batter up. He is a thinking man's pitcher. So, why did Moyer bounce around so many years? The answer is velocity. He doesn't throw hard, but he has movement and location. He was overlooked and undervalued by too many that valued his radar gun readings more than his abilities. Off raw velocity, there are lots of pitchers who will get lots of interest but will never find the strike zone and will never figure out how to set up batters and control an at bat. However, many will jump on that bandwagon. I'm not saying Livingston is another Moyer, but I say let's not dismiss the potential based on a radar gun reading.
"I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton
That is 100% right on. Livingston may turn out to be nothing, but the lack of success should the determining factor, not the lack of velocity.
Last year in AAA he was 8-11 with a 4.59 ERA.He simply has better minor league numbers than any pitcher that's gone through the REDS organization in the last 15 years!!!!!!!
The year before his ERA was 4.70 in the time he was in AAA.
His numbers from AA and especially A ball make his overall numbers look better.
This guy hardly has shown 12 win potential. Say hello to the new Lance Davis.
Thats a bit of revisionist history...... he bounced around for so long because he wasn't very good. For example, his K/BB rates weren't consistently at least 2 until his seventh season in the big leagues. For most of those early years his K/BB rate weren't even above 1.5. A finesse pitcher with suspect command tends to bounce around.
Last edited by jojo; 03-05-2007 at 07:48 AM.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
saarloos was good with the A's and there is no reason he cant continue his success with the reds
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Talk about revisionist history. Here is Moyer's stats for his FIRST five seasons. Not stellar no, but certainly a passable starter.
SEASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1986 ChC 16 16 1 1 87.1 107 52 49 10 42 45 7 4 0 0 -- 5.05
1987 ChC 35 33 1 0 201.0 210 127 114 28 97 147 12 15 0 0 -- 5.10
1988 ChC 34 30 3 1 202.0 212 84 78 20 55 121 9 15 0 0 2 3.48
1989 Tex 15 15 1 0 76.0 84 51 41 10 33 44 4 9 0 0 -- 4.86
1990 Tex 33 10 1 0 102.1 115 59 53 6 39 58 2 6 0 1 -- 4.66
Last edited by Caveman Techie; 03-05-2007 at 10:40 AM.
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