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Thread: Bailey not a prospect?

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    Member MississippiRed's Avatar
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    Bailey not a prospect?

    Below (in blue) is a brief quote from Gary Huckaby's article in Baseball Prospectus about the Giants chances of winning the World Series: (Moderators, I don't think I am violating anything by sharing a short quote, but if you feel I am, please delete this thread. I don't want to get RedsZone or myself in any trouble.)

    "When I first wrote that 'There’s No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect,' it meant two things, one of which has kind of become lost over time. Yes, it means that pitchers get hurt at approximately the same rate that methheads swipe identities and lose teeth. That’s what all pitchers do, not just prospects. But it also had another meaning—that guys who are totally blowing people away in the minors like they’re so many hot dog pretenders before Kobayashi are absolutely not pitching prospects—they’re already pitchers, and more time in the minors only means time off the living, pulsating clocks that are their labrums, rotator cuffs, and elbows. " (Emaphis is mine.)

    The context of the quote is about Lincecum, with Huckaby saying he needs to start the season in the majors, in long relief, but seems to me to apply to Homer Bailey just as well. Based on the idea than any pitcher has a limited number of pitches in his arm, are the Reds wasting wear and tear on Homer's arm when he could be using those pitches to help the big club? I think he might have a good point. Asked another way, Would Cole Hamels be better prepared for this season if he had stayed in the minors all of last year?

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    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey not a prospect?

    I disagree a lot with this assessment. Maybe Homer's ready, but if he's not there is the potential for psychological damage. Now granted everything I've read from him indicates he's the cliched Texan 'Rough, tough, and doesn't care about a thing' but that doesn't mean if we call him up before he's shown he's learned everything the brass wants him to learn that he won't get shelled in an outing and suffer some 'shell shock' and pitch timidly next time out, further exacerbating the situation and making him less useful as a pitcher.

    By this logic, we should go ahead and put Sean Watson in the big league pitching corps, along with Travis Wood, along with Johnny Cueto. All have a degree of 'prospect' to them and are just wasting time pitching in the minors.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey not a prospect?

    I sympathetic to the smoke 'em while you've got 'em mentality, but under age 23 I'd resist putting the kid in the rotation. What most pitching prospects, even the elite ones, aren't physically prepared to do is handle a major league starter's workload. You're setting them up to fail in most cases if you try to milk 30+ starts out of them.

    Yet, if a kid has blown away the minors and you're sure he's got the stuff to do the same in the majors, then I'd say get him working out of the pen.
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    Beer is good!! George Anderson's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey not a prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    I disagree a lot with this assessment. Maybe Homer's ready, but if he's not there is the potential for psychological damage. Now granted everything I've read from him indicates he's the cliched Texan 'Rough, tough, and doesn't care about a thing' but that doesn't mean if we call him up before he's shown he's learned everything the brass wants him to learn that he won't get shelled in an outing and suffer some 'shell shock' and pitch timidly next time out, further exacerbating the situation and making him less useful as a pitcher.

    By this logic, we should go ahead and put Sean Watson in the big league pitching corps, along with Travis Wood, along with Johnny Cueto. All have a degree of 'prospect' to them and are just wasting time pitching in the minors.
    The player I would most worry about psychological damage is not Homer but Josh Hamilton. As much as I hate to say it I doubt if it would take much to "shell shock" Hamilton. A couple of sub par games in New York or Philadelphia with those rude fans and God forbid I could see Hamilton falling off the wagon. I know the Hamilton situation is different from Homer because Hamilton cannot be sent down to AAA, but if the Reds follow your line of thinking then Hamilton should never see the field until very late in the year because we dont want to risk having Hamilton potentially "shell shocked".
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    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey not a prospect?

    I agree GA, Hamilton has that potential probably, and far more so than Homer I'd suspect. I mostly am disagreeing with Gary, not Mississippi even.

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    Re: Bailey not a prospect?

    There's also a line of thinking that you limit a kid's pitches in his early 20s. Some say that was why Nolan Ryan lasted so long. His innings were limited in his pre 25 years.

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    Re: Bailey not a prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    There's also a line of thinking that you limit a kid's pitches in his early 20s. Some say that was why Nolan Ryan lasted so long. His innings were limited in his pre 25 years.
    That sort of fits in with what M2 said above, and also with Huckaby's point in the BP article. Bring 'em up and let them work out of the bullpen. If Homer worked in long relief, he probably wouldn't work any more innings with the Reds than he would with Louisville. Then, if they wanted him to add a few more innings to his yearly total, he could make a few starts in the 2nd half.

    I realize we are talking about what may be a moot point. Homer struggled a little in his first ST start, and he may not quite be ready. I'm not saying he is. But then I look at who the Reds plan to start, and I wonder . . .

    Also, this thread was moved to the minor league forum, and I have to admit I didn't even think of posting it here instead of Reds Live. It's spring training, and Bailey is in major league spring training, right?

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey not a prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by MississippiRed View Post
    That sort of fits in with what M2 said above, and also with Huckaby's point in the BP article. Bring 'em up and let them work out of the bullpen. If Homer worked in long relief, he probably wouldn't work any more innings with the Reds than he would with Louisville. Then, if they wanted him to add a few more innings to his yearly total, he could make a few starts in the 2nd half.

    I realize we are talking about what may be a moot point. Homer struggled a little in his first ST start, and he may not quite be ready. I'm not saying he is. But then I look at who the Reds plan to start, and I wonder . . .

    Also, this thread was moved to the minor league forum, and I have to admit I didn't even think of posting it here instead of Reds Live. It's spring training, and Bailey is in major league spring training, right?
    I guess it was moved because it moreso discusses prospects in general, and not completely revolved around Homer Bailey in particular. Also, Homer will get a ton more innings in Louisville than he would coming out of the bullpen in the majors.

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    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Bailey not a prospect?

    Not to mention that if they work out of the pen then they can review their outing, receive instruction/mentoring, and then put it back into action in the next day or two.

    Not a bad way to break a guy in.

    GL


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