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Thread: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

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    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    Sam (NY): Did you see Crasnick's article about Harang's Cy Young calibre season last year? Were his stats (led league in wins and Ks) indicative of him being really, really good, or just a fluke?

    Rob Neyer: (2:16 PM ET ) Harang's a good pitcher, and the A's shouldn't have let him get away. That said, both he and Arroyo are likely to decline, and with them the Reds, too.
    Discuss...
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

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    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    I'd love to hear Rob explain why Harang is expected to decline. He's gotten better every year since he's been in Cincinnati.

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    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    Arroyo I can maybe see. It's not my personal opinion, but I can understand the logic.

    Harang has been getting steadily better every year. At worst, I see him staying at this level for a year or two before dropping off.
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    Although I hope not, Baseball Prospectus has him falling off quite bit as well. His K numbers from last year were just way out of whack for what he had been doing, so I think PECOTA projections think that was a fluke and expect him to be back to his "norm" this year. Personally I'd be happy with 15 wins and about 180 k's to go with 230+ innings and an ERA around 4. Anything above that is gravy IMO.

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    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    All my simulated seasons on MVP baseball usually put him in the low 4's for an ERA...I mean if we're doing completely baseless projections, I might as well toss mine out there too.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    The projection systems all agree that both look to decline this season. Whether I agree with that on Harang is another story, but I do expect to see Arroyos numbers decline this year, probably to the tune of a 4.00-4.25 ERA.

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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    All my simulated seasons on MVP baseball usually put him in the low 4's for an ERA...I mean if we're doing completely baseless projections, I might as well toss mine out there too.
    PECOTA's pretty based.

  9. #8
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    Neyer I mean. He's usually a smart fellow, but that comment, taken in the context presented was less than 'expert'. PECOTA I respect typically.

    Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
    Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    PECOTA's pretty based.
    Based? Or did you mean biased?

    Rem

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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    Joseph said they were baseless. hebron was saying they are base, the opposite of baseless.

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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    Quote Originally Posted by MaineRed View Post
    Joseph said they were baseless. hebron was saying they are base, the opposite of baseless.
    I know what the word means, I just want to clarrify his intent since it makes more sense to me that they are biased. Typically, gramaticly, someone would say something like, '.....they are well based....'.

    Rem
    Last edited by remdog; 03-06-2007 at 04:31 PM.

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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    Quote Originally Posted by MaineRed View Post
    Joseph said they were baseless. hebron was saying they are base, the opposite of baseless.
    Well, I meant PECOTA, which I thought he had said wasn't based. But he said he respected it, which I can understand. PECOTA can be wrong as well, but as far as predictions for individual players go, I find it hard to beat as long as health isn't an issue.

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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    Got it.

    Rem

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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    Arroyo is a safe bet to fall a little.

    Harang, I think, will get better. Put him in NY or Boston and he'd be overhyped.

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    Re: From Rob Neyer's ESPN Chat:

    most any forecasting system will regress performance to the mean. The odds are likely that both will decline somewhat in 2007. However, there is a possibility they could still get better(or at least have a better season).

    PECOTA Improve Rate for Harang is 34%, Arroyo is 30%

    PECOTA Breakout Rate for Harang is 5%, Arroyo is 3%

    Improvement Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve *at all* relative the weighted average of his EqR/27 or EqERA in his three previous seasons of performance. A player who is expected to perform just the same as he has in the past will have an Improvement Rating of 50%.

    Breakout Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. High breakout rates are indicative of upside risk.

    Harang's 75% PECOTA is better than his numbers from last year, it means he has at least a 25% change of improving on 2006 in 2007.

    Arroyo's 90% PECOTA is worse than his numbers from last year, it means he has less than a 10% change of improving on 2006 in 2007.
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