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Thread: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

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  1. #1
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    Looking at an online Sports Book today, I see the REDS Over/Under is 76 wins.

    10 games under .500!

    But then the same Sports Books had the TrailBlazers' Over/Under at 24.5. They've already passed that with a month to go.

    I think teams that are under the radar just don't get watched or inspected as much and that they have a lot more room for improvement. Why else would you explain Aaron Harang getting ZERO votes for the Cy Young when every other NL pitcher that's accomplished what he did actually won the award?


    Not only are the REDS seen as a 76 win team, but they're also projected to finish a distant Fifth for their chances to win the Division.

    The odds for the Central Division are:

    CUBS 3-2
    CARDS 3-2
    BREWERS 5-1
    ASTROS 7-1
    REDS 15-1
    PIRATES 40-1


    77 WINS? Seems like easy money.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  2. #2
    You know his story Redsland's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Looking at an online Sports Book today, I see the REDS Over/Under is 76 wins.

    10 games under .500!
    Or 5 games under, according to some formulas.

    Makes all the routine posts.

  3. #3
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsland View Post
    Or 5 games under, according to some formulas.

    Funky math
    Go Gators!

  4. #4
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    Well the average over/under on a thread a couple of weeks ago here was 79.14. Is the 3.14 (besides being Pie) the homer adjustment?

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ver+under+wins
    Last edited by klw; 03-07-2007 at 05:19 PM.

  5. #5
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Well the average over/under on a thread a couple of weeks ago here was 79.14. Is the 3.14 (besides being Pie) the homer adjustment?

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ver+under+wins
    That's not bad, then. Maybe 76 is realistic. Guess I'll just enjoy the season that much more if they do better.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  6. #6
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    I'm waiting till the roster is set and there is a better idea of how Narrom might use guys..... I can see where the Reds could win 83 games, and I can see ways they could be lucky to win 75....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #7
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsland View Post
    Or 5 games under, according to some formulas.


    Unless the 76 is a hexadecimal number which is a 118 decimal.

    Unless the 76 is an octal number which a 62 decimal. :thumbdown

    Pay attention to the open sky

  8. #8
    Member DannyB's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    My experience with bookies is they usually have a pretty good idea when they post those lines.You know if they hit it on the money at 76 wins all the bettors lose.They realize thats probably not going to happen so they are looking for even amounts wagered on both sides of the line.

  9. #9
    Man Pills
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Looking at an online Sports Book today, I see the REDS Over/Under is 76 wins.

    10 games under .500!

    But then the same Sports Books had the TrailBlazers' Over/Under at 24.5. They've already passed that with a month to go.

    I think teams that are under the radar just don't get watched or inspected as much and that they have a lot more room for improvement. Why else would you explain Aaron Harang getting ZERO votes for the Cy Young when every other NL pitcher that's accomplished what he did actually won the award?


    Not only are the REDS seen as a 76 win team, but they're also projected to finish a distant Fifth for their chances to win the Division.

    The odds for the Central Division are:

    CUBS 3-2
    CARDS 3-2
    BREWERS 5-1
    ASTROS 7-1
    REDS 15-1
    PIRATES 40-1


    77 WINS? Seems like easy money.
    I'm going with 75 wins myself. Two starters, a baleful offense, and a pathetic bullpen doesn't point me towards anything but a sub-.500 season.

  10. #10
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    I subscribe to both theories depending on mood. During the season if you are 5 games under it would take 5 games to get you back to 500 obviously, I can go with that. But when talking about the total 'pie' of season games played, I revert to the other formula that claims in which for every game you take from one column, you add it to the other, ie 80-82 is only 1 game under 500 because if you win one of those two games in difference, then you subtract one from the loss and add one to the win making you 500.

    Or something.

    Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
    Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
    Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13
    University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
    Cincinnati Bengals - None
    Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98

  11. #11
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    I don't believe in predicting wins and loses before opening day. You can't predict injuries (unless it's Griffey) and off games. Hell maybe Griff will stay healthy all year and hit 30 some homers. Maybe some of those will be walk off home runs. You never know. So those predictions might as well be a grain of salt.
    Most Vottomatic Player

  12. #12
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Looking at an online Sports Book today, I see the REDS Over/Under is 76 wins.
    Wonder what it was last year? I can 'bet" that it was below 80 games.
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  13. #13
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966 View Post
    Wonder what it was last year? I can 'bet" that it was below 80 games.
    Seems to me we were going to be in last place, lucky to avoid losing 100 games, and generally the scurge of the baseball world.

    Seems to be a theme this time of year.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  14. #14
    Zoinks!
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Seems to be a theme this time of year.
    Yeah, I know that song...These guys used to sing it:


  15. #15
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: I can't believe we're considered to be this bad....

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Seems to me we were going to be in last place, lucky to avoid losing 100 games, and generally the scurge of the baseball world.

    Seems to be a theme this time of year.
    Perception is a funny thing.

    Last year 132 predictions were given before opening day. By my calculations the Redszoners xpected 76.66 Ws on average.

    The Reds finished with 80 actual Ws and a 76-86 Pythagorean record.

    This was before the emergence of Arroyo, Ross, or Phillips. If anything, the site was relatively optimistic, as always.

    2006 Predictions - RZ Avg Ws: 76.66 Actual: 80 PTHG: 76
    2005 Predictions - RZ Avg Ws: 84.67 Actual: 73 PTHG: 75
    2004 Predictions - RZ Avg Ws 76.82 Actual: 76 PTHG: 67
    2003 Predictions - RZ Avg Ws 87.88 Actual: 69 PTHG: 63
    2002 Predictions - RZ Avg Ws 79.71 Actual: 75 PTHG: 63

    This site has always been a tad optimistic and likely always will. After all, its made up of Reds fans.

    GL
    Last edited by gonelong; 03-08-2007 at 02:17 PM.


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