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Thread: 2006 Reds Starting Pitching - Game Scores

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    2006 Reds Starting Pitching - Game Scores

    Game Scores is one of the many contributions to Sabermetrics by Bill James. It was his method of determining how proficient a starting pitcher was in any given game. Here is a short article from Wikipedia that gives a brief explanation of it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_Score I decided to see how the Reds' starters from 2006 fared under this system.

    PHP Code:
    Pitcher   Starts   Ave GS   QS-GS   &#37;QS-GS   60+-GS   39<-GS   
    Arroyo     35        56.3     23      66%       17        6
    Harang     35        54.1     21      60
    %       13        7
    Milton     26        46.3     14      54
    %        5        7
    Ramirez    19        44.8      8      42
    %        4        6
    Claussen   14        42.8      5      36
    %        2        4 
    Lohse      11        49.4      6      55
    %        5        3
    Williams    8        36.8      3      38
    %        1        5
    Michalak    6        37.7      1      17
    %        0        3
    Mays        4        29.0      1      25
    %        0        3
    Belisle     2        54.0      1      50
    %        1        0
    Kim         1        54.0      1     100
    %        0        0
    Germano     1        43.0      0       0
    %        0        0
    Team      162        48.8     84      52
    %       48       44 
    The categories are: starts, average game score, quality start game score, % of quality starts game score, games score 60 plus, games score less than 39.

    According to James' Game Score Method Arroyo would be the Reds best pitcher in 2006 followed closely by Harang. As a team the Reds' starters pitched a quality game a little over half the time.

    I then decided to see how the team's won-lost record matched up with their Game Score pitching performances.

    PHP Code:
    Game Score     Team W/L Record
    60
    +                38-10
    50
    -59              15-21
    40
    -49              14-20
    <39                13-31 
    If a Game Score of 50 is the dividing line between a quality start or not I picked these categories as follows:60+ is a very good start,50-59 an average to slightly above average start,40-49 an average to slightly below average start, <39 a poor start. The W/L records match this for the most part. Except I thought the W/L record for the 50-59 starts would be better than for the 40-49 starts. However they turned out to be almost identical.

    After that I just decided to list the 6 Best and 6 Worst starting performances for the Reds in 2006. They are as follows;

    PHP Code:
    Best Starts:                                           Worst Starts:
    1)Arroyo   86   4/2    Washington            1)Claussen  -2   6/16   Chic WS
    2
    )Arroyo   86   9/5    San Francisco         2)Claussen   5   4/22   Milwaukee
    3
    )Milton   81   5/26   Arizona               3)Milton     8   9/17   Chic Cubs
    4
    )Ramirez  81   6/14   Milwaukee             4)Ramirez    9   8/7    StLouis
    5
    )Harang   79   4/23   Milwaukee             5)Lohse     10   9/13   San Diego
    6
    )Harang   79   7/25   Houston               6)Mays      11   6/1    Cleveland 
    That is a quick look at how the Reds' starting pitching performed in 2006 with regards to Bill James' Game Score method of evaluation.

    PS The columns all line up when I click 'preview post'. I have no idea if they will still line up when this thread is submitted. Hopefully they will.
    Last edited by texasdave; 03-08-2007 at 12:13 PM.

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Reds Starting Pitching - Game Scores

    So according to this, Ramirez is as overrated as I thought.

    Arroyo
    Harang
    Lohse
    Milton
    Fill in the Blank

    Hopefully Saarloos or Santos can fill that 5th spot nicely.

  4. #3
    Manliness Personified HumnHilghtFreel's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Reds Starting Pitching - Game Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    So according to this, Ramirez is as overrated as I thought.
    The numbers don't tell you that he was injured though

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Reds Starting Pitching - Game Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by HumnHilghtFreel View Post
    The numbers don't tell you that he was injured though
    Then that's his fault for not telling Narron or the Medical Staff that he most likely hurt himself sometime in July.

    If all we can come to expect from EZ is 100 IP, then let's put him in the bullpen and see if we can maximize his efforts for the 60-80 IP range, which clearly he can handle.

  6. #5
    Manliness Personified HumnHilghtFreel's Avatar
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    Re: 2006 Reds Starting Pitching - Game Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Then that's his fault for not telling Narron or the Medical Staff that he most likely hurt himself sometime in July.

    If all we can come to expect from EZ is 100 IP, then let's put him in the bullpen and see if we can maximize his efforts for the 60-80 IP range, which clearly he can handle.
    This I actually agree with. I've said before I'd like to see him slated into the long reliever's role.

    I don't think one year tells us that 100IP is all we can expect out of him though.

  7. #6
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    Re: 2006 Reds Starting Pitching - Game Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by HumnHilghtFreel View Post
    I don't think one year tells us that 100IP is all we can expect out of him though.
    Agreed.

    Actually, here are Liz's combined IP #'s for the last four years.

    03 - 157.1
    04 - 128.2
    05 - 153.2
    06 - 130.0

    http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...-Ramirez.shtml
    When all is said and done more is said than done.


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