C.Trent Thinks 22 (including Hamilton) Are Locks

[reds44]

OK, while I'm waiting, here's my roster math:
Rotation (5)
Harang
Arroyo
Milton
Lohse
Saarloos

Bullpen (7)
Weathers
Coffey
Bray
Cormier
Stanton
?
?

Starting position players (8)
C - Ross
1B - Hatteberg
2B - Phillips
3B - Encarnacion
SS - Gonzalez
LF - Dunn
OF - Freel
OF - Griffey

Bench (5)
INF Castro
OF Hamilton
1B/COF Conine
C/1B Valentin
??

That gives us 22 spots that are filled, or as Jerry Narron likes to say, "in cement" (although Saarloos' geography isn't 100 percent, but his spot on the team is)

This list is assuming Majewski starts the season on the DL. If he doesn't, that means there are just two spots -- a pitcher and a position player -- left.

There's a lot of wiggle room with that bench spot. It could be a position player, an outfielder or a catcher. The catcher would make sense because Valentin is the team's top pinch-hitter. So maybe he serves that role as much as catcher. Because he's such a valuable pinch-hitter, they may need that third catcher because an 'emergency' catcher wouldn't be needed only in emergencies. Something to think about.

The bullpen? If Wilson keeps pitching well, he could start the season in the rotation and then you could move Saarloos to the bullpen. Belisle is a valuable guy.

Not alot to argue with there.

[KoryMac5]

Some tough choices coming up. Time to dump some salary and go with the cheaper more effective guys.

[11larkin11]

I think Belisle is a lock, most likely in the pen, but maybe he could sneak into the rotation (cut Milton!)

[Topcat]

I wish thet would send Milton to The mets or anyone and eat half his salary. I truly believe our rotation would be far better with his subtraction.

[hebroncougar]

If Matt Belisle doesn't come north with this team either A. He has gotten hurt between now and April 2nd or B. They still aren't serious about winning. With the way he has pitched, he's their 3rd best starter right now.

[toledodan]

i know its only been a couple of innings but dustin hermensen has looked good.

[wheels]

Belisle will be the tragic figure of this spring.

He should be the team's third starter, but he'll be wasted in Louisville.

Shame on Wayne for continuing the Milton travesty.

[redsmetz]

Belisle will be the tragic figure of this spring.

He should be the team's third starter, but he'll be wasted in Louisville.

Shame on Wayne for continuing the Milton travesty.

Wayne's saddled with an albatross and 8-10 Million for this year and he's supposed to just choke that one down? Frankly, that's absurd. I'm fine with moving him, but not at eating that huge salary.

I still doubt Cormier will be here. Also, another thought, is it possible that Bray starts in Louisville for now (ha, ha - I typed Indy first - showing my age, next I'll be saying Denver or Wichita or Nashville!).

This is not a bad problem to have - it means we've got some depth (even with the albatross contract).

[wheels]

Wayne's saddled with an albatross and 8-10 Million for this year and he's supposed to just choke that one down? Frankly, that's absurd. I'm fine with moving him, but not at eating that huge salary.

I still doubt Cormier will be here. Also, another thought, is it possible that Bray starts in Louisville for now (ha, ha - I typed Indy first - showing my age, next I'll be saying Denver or Wichita or Nashville!).

This is not a bad problem to have - it means we've got some depth (even with the albatross contract).

I wouldn't have a problem with them eating that contract at all.

What's worse? Spending 8.5 mil on guy that gets his head beat in every fifth day, or spending 8.5 mil and not letting him get his head beat in every fifth day, while giving a younger, more talented player a chance to shine?

He's only got one year left, so get him out of there.

[Ltlabner]

I wouldn't have a problem with them eating that contract at all.

What's worse? Spending 8.5 mil on guy that gets his head beat in every fifth day, or spending 8.5 mil and not letting him get his head beat in every fifth day, while giving a younger, more talented player a chance to shine?

He's only got one year left, so get him out of there.

Of course you wouldn't have a problem with eating it. It isn't your money.

What's worse? Eating 1/2 or more of a 8.5m contract only to replace him with a guy who gives you the same or worse performance. And with the cast of folks we CURRENTLY have to choose from it's very likely they'd give you the same or worse performance. Belisle has back issues. Lizzard has grown a ton, but hasn't show that he can produce less than 5 ERA over the course of an entire year. I like Sarrloos but for the back of the rotation, not to count on him to put up 4.5 or lower ERA over the course of the entire year (especially when he's projected to be 5+ era and has only been below the mid 4's once in his 3 years). Victor Santos?

Now, if they can land a bonafide guy with a proven track record I'm all on board with burning the money. But how much sense does it make to set fire to a pile of cash and replace it with the same (and chance for worse) performance?

[wheels]

Of course you wouldn't have a problem with eating it. It isn't your money.

What's worse? Eating 1/2 or more of a 8.5m contract only to replace him with a guy who gives you the same or worse performance. And with the cast of folks we CURRENTLY have to choose from it's very likely they'd give you the same or worse performance. Belisle has back issues. Lizzard has grown a ton, but hasn't show that he can produce less than 5 ERA over the course of an entire year. I like Sarrloos but for the back of the rotation, not to count on him to put up 4.5 or lower ERA over the course of the entire year (especially when he's projected to be 5+ era and has only been below the mid 4's once in his 3 years). Victor Santos?

Now, if they can land a bonafide guy with a proven track record I'm all on board with burning the money. But how much sense does it make to set fire to a pile of cash and replace it with the same (and chance for worse) performance?

It's almost a mortal lock that ANY PITCHER on this current roster could put up numbers better than Eric Milton.

[hebroncougar]

Wayne's saddled with an albatross and 8-10 Million for this year and he's supposed to just choke that one down? Frankly, that's absurd. I'm fine with moving him, but not at eating that huge salary.

I still doubt Cormier will be here. Also, another thought, is it possible that Bray starts in Louisville for now (ha, ha - I typed Indy first - showing my age, next I'll be saying Denver or Wichita or Nashville!).

This is not a bad problem to have - it means we've got some depth (even with the albatross contract).

If eating 8.5 mil., or getting someone who's going to be 6-12 with a 5.50 ERA, or letting Belisle start for 400K and he goes 11-7 with a 4.00 ERA, I'll eat the 8.5 mil. Or I pay him 5 mil, and get someone to take him for 3.5 mil.

[thatcoolguy_22]

If eating 8.5 mil., or getting someone who's going to be 6-12 with a 5.50 ERA, or letting Belisle start for 400K and he goes 11-7 with a 4.00 ERA, I'll eat the 8.5 mil. Or I pay him 5 mil, and get someone to take him for 3.5 mil.

I would be happy to see Belisle put up those numbers over the season and it would be like we paid Belisle 8.9 million for the year. If we could find a sucker to take on some of that salary it would be phenomenal but I highly doubt it. I've said it before but Wang and the rest of the yankees staff is seriously over-rated
and they have the cash to spend...

[RedFanAlways1966]

If eating 8.5 mil., or getting someone who's going to be 6-12 with a 5.50 ERA, or letting Belisle start for 400K and he goes 11-7 with a 4.00 ERA, I'll eat the 8.5 mil.

A lot of IFS there. I do not want to belittle Matt Belisle, but why should I (a REDS fan) believe that he can go 11-7 with a 4.00 ERA?

Spending 8.5 mil on guy that gets his head beat in every fifth day, or spending 8.5 mil and not letting him get his head beat in every fifth day, while giving a younger, more talented player a chance to shine?

I am not a big fan of Eric Milton (more specifically his contract!). However, I did notice that he went 8-8 last season. He did get his head beat in twice last year when he pitched with a knee that needed surgery in April and pitched with a bad arm in September. When I deduct those two starts, he had a 4.41 ERA last year. He also pitched 14 QS in 26 GS... 14 QS in 24 GS if we take out two injured starts. Also lost 3 games when he threw a QS. Also had 3 no decisions when he threw a QS. Only won 1 game when he did not pitch a QS. Heck, he might have been 11-5 or better with some support from the rest of the team.

And what if one of these youger players gets his head beat in every fifth day? Sure it costs less, but will it ruin the mentality of a guy that might need more seasoning? Will it cause the REDS FO to lose faith in a guy that might have shined in 2008 or 2009? That too could be a tough price to pay... like eating $9 mill to watch it happen.

As Sam Wyche might say to the REDS fans who think the REDS can eat $9 million left by the previous regime, "You don't root for the New York Yankees, you root for the Cincinnati REDS!" I don't blame the diehards for wanting rid of Milton and his contract, but not too many teams with that payroll eat that much money. It is the modern day economics of baseball and the bad signing of the previous regime. Come next year it will no longer be discussed.

[hebroncougar]

A lot of IFS there. I do not want to belittle Matt Belisle, but why should I (a REDS fan) believe that he can go 11-7 with a 4.00 ERA?



I am not a big fan of Eric Milton (more specifically his contract!). However, I did notice that he went 8-8 last season. He did get his head beat in twice last year when he pitched with a knee that needed surgery in April and pitched with a bad arm in September. When I deduct those two starts, he had a 4.41 ERA last year. He also pitched 14 QS in 26 GS... 14 QS in 24 GS if we take out two injured starts. Also lost 3 games when he threw a QS. Also had 3 no decisions when he threw a QS. Only won 1 game when he did not pitch a QS. Heck, he might have been 11-5 or better with some support from the rest of the team.

And what if one of these youger players gets his head beat in every fifth day? Sure it costs less, but will it ruin the mentality of a guy that might need more seasoning? Will it cause the REDS FO to lose faith in a guy that might have shined in 2008 or 2009? That too could be a tough price to pay... like eating $9 mill to watch it happen.

As Sam Wyche might say to the REDS fans who think the REDS can eat $9 million left by the previous regime, "You don't root for the New York Yankees, you root for the Cincinnati REDS!" I don't blame the diehards for wanting rid of Milton and his contract, but not too many teams with that payroll eat that much money. It is the modern day economics of baseball and the bad signing of the previous regime. Come next year it will no longer be discussed.

Everything in baseball is an IF at this point. I'd take the chance on Belisle over Milton in a heartbeat. Sure I could be wrong. But Milton has proven he can't pitch for the Reds the last two years.