C.Trent Thinks 22 (including Hamilton) Are Locks

[edabbs44]

I'd have to agree...the trades last year for Bray/Maj and Cormier were in a different reason to try and win a pennant.

But adding Stanton and Weathers, while not terrible contracts, but we had/have way cheaper alternatives without about same level of risk.

The Castro contract is another weird move IMO. Solved next to nothing excpet for spending an additional 1-2 million for no reason.

The Conine contract takes the cake in this whole scenario. What Wayne seen the need to sign him while facing Deno going AAA or Hopper for that matter is a complete waste of 2 million bucks.

All in all, in appears Wayne is sort of wasting about 11 million bucks (Lohse, Cormier, Castro, Conine and one of Stanton/Weathers) when we could have replaced those guys with Belisle, Ramirez, Burton, Shackelford, Salmon, Hopper and Deno all for each making less than 750k or league minimum.

Uh huh

[mth123]

Perhaps, but in his defense, Wayne's owner has never complained about payroll. We fans are used to Lindner and Marge crowing about it, but Castellini never has.

That's true but limited resources are limited resources. Spend it on one or two quality guys instead of spreading it around on junk.

[tripleaaaron]

Even with Valentin being our best pinch hitter I say forget that third catcher. In an emergency situation Im sure Hatte could handle a few innings, and freel would do it as well. We dont need Moeller on our bench, we need a much better stick than his .227/.289 split.

[Sea Ray]

I'd like to see them find a way to keep Jared Burton somehow. Unless injuries happen I look for a lot of guys with options to go to Louisville, like Belisle or Bray just so they can stash some folks.

This doesn't mean that they'll take the best 25 guys north nor does it mean it'll look the same a week later.

[Sea Ray]

All in all, in appears Wayne is sort of wasting about 11 million bucks (Lohse, Cormier, Castro, Conine and one of Stanton/Weathers) when we could have replaced those guys with Belisle, Ramirez, Burton, Shackelford, Salmon, Hopper and Deno all for each making less than 750k or league minimum.

Good point. Add in Milton and there appears to be a lot of wasted salary on a team with precious little to spare.

[KoryMac5]

I'd have to agree...the trades last year for Bray/Maj and Cormier were in a different reason to try and win a pennant.

But adding Stanton and Weathers, while not terrible contracts, but we had/have way cheaper alternatives without about same level of risk.

The Castro contract is another weird move IMO. Solved next to nothing excpet for spending an additional 1-2 million for no reason.

The Conine contract takes the cake in this whole scenario. What Wayne seen the need to sign him while facing Deno going AAA or Hopper for that matter is a complete waste of 2 million bucks.

All in all, in appears Wayne is sort of wasting about 11 million bucks (Lohse, Cormier, Castro, Conine and one of Stanton/Weathers) when we could have replaced those guys with Belisle, Ramirez, Burton, Shackelford, Salmon, Hopper and Deno all for each making less than 750k or league minimum.

I really think that Wayne did not forsee some of these young arms coming in and doing the job like they have. Belisle has been so inconsistent because of his back. Lizard played well in spots but fell in love with that changeup last year and got hammered. Burton a rule V guy who came out of nowhere and add Livingston to the mix too. Shack inconsistent, Salmon great stuff but is wild and Santos has been consistent at losing. Hopper and Deno you cant have em both with Hamilton in the fold. He spent that 11 million thinking he needed to put a respectable team on the field. I am sure knowing what he knows now about our depth he wouldn't have made some of those deals. Spring training is full of surprises this year. I do think that somebody out of the afore mentioned bad money contracts will get cut or shipped out.

[MartyFan]

It's amazing how much they didn't need some of the past calendar year's acquisitions.

I look for a lot of trades to be made from our surplus...if not before opening day before the AS break.

[Ltlabner]

I wouldn't have a problem with them eating that contract at all.

What's worse? Spending 8.5 mil on guy that gets his head beat in every fifth day, or spending 8.5 mil and not letting him get his head beat in every fifth day, while giving a younger, more talented player a chance to shine?

He's only got one year left, so get him out of there.

Of course you wouldn't have a problem with eating it. It isn't your money.

What's worse? Eating 1/2 or more of a 8.5m contract only to replace him with a guy who gives you the same or worse performance. And with the cast of folks we CURRENTLY have to choose from it's very likely they'd give you the same or worse performance. Belisle has back issues. Lizzard has grown a ton, but hasn't show that he can produce less than 5 ERA over the course of an entire year. I like Sarrloos but for the back of the rotation, not to count on him to put up 4.5 or lower ERA over the course of the entire year (especially when he's projected to be 5+ era and has only been below the mid 4's once in his 3 years). Victor Santos?

Now, if they can land a bonafide guy with a proven track record I'm all on board with burning the money. But how much sense does it make to set fire to a pile of cash and replace it with the same (and chance for worse) performance?

[redsmetz]

I look for a lot of trades to be made from our surplus...if not before opening day before the AS break.

I think your right and I'm guessing there will be a number of moves prior to Opening Day to break the logjam we have. We've got some great arms and we need to make room for them. And giving the lack of pitching depth in the Majors, there will be some buyers.

[OesterPoster]

I'd like to see them find a way to keep Jared Burton somehow.

According to Chris Welsh, the Reds MO with Burton is to send him out against the toughest lineups this spring, hoping he gets hammered. If he gets hammered, they'll work out a deal with the A's to keep him (with the hope he'll pass through waivers). If he does well (as he has so far), they'll keep sending him out to get hammered. If he never does get roughed up, then they'll end up trying to work a deal with the A's...and more costly (if he'd actually pass waivers).

I know that seems weird, but it was straight out of Welsh's mouth the other morning on 700.

[bucksfan2]

IMO it would be a crime if the reds lost a guy with as much potential as Burton to keep around a guy like Cormier.

[hebroncougar]

A lot of IFS there. I do not want to belittle Matt Belisle, but why should I (a REDS fan) believe that he can go 11-7 with a 4.00 ERA?



I am not a big fan of Eric Milton (more specifically his contract!). However, I did notice that he went 8-8 last season. He did get his head beat in twice last year when he pitched with a knee that needed surgery in April and pitched with a bad arm in September. When I deduct those two starts, he had a 4.41 ERA last year. He also pitched 14 QS in 26 GS... 14 QS in 24 GS if we take out two injured starts. Also lost 3 games when he threw a QS. Also had 3 no decisions when he threw a QS. Only won 1 game when he did not pitch a QS. Heck, he might have been 11-5 or better with some support from the rest of the team.

And what if one of these youger players gets his head beat in every fifth day? Sure it costs less, but will it ruin the mentality of a guy that might need more seasoning? Will it cause the REDS FO to lose faith in a guy that might have shined in 2008 or 2009? That too could be a tough price to pay... like eating $9 mill to watch it happen.

As Sam Wyche might say to the REDS fans who think the REDS can eat $9 million left by the previous regime, "You don't root for the New York Yankees, you root for the Cincinnati REDS!" I don't blame the diehards for wanting rid of Milton and his contract, but not too many teams with that payroll eat that much money. It is the modern day economics of baseball and the bad signing of the previous regime. Come next year it will no longer be discussed.

Everything in baseball is an IF at this point. I'd take the chance on Belisle over Milton in a heartbeat. Sure I could be wrong. But Milton has proven he can't pitch for the Reds the last two years.

[wheels]

Of course you wouldn't have a problem with eating it. It isn't your money.

What's worse? Eating 1/2 or more of a 8.5m contract only to replace him with a guy who gives you the same or worse performance. And with the cast of folks we CURRENTLY have to choose from it's very likely they'd give you the same or worse performance. Belisle has back issues. Lizzard has grown a ton, but hasn't show that he can produce less than 5 ERA over the course of an entire year. I like Sarrloos but for the back of the rotation, not to count on him to put up 4.5 or lower ERA over the course of the entire year (especially when he's projected to be 5+ era and has only been below the mid 4's once in his 3 years). Victor Santos?

Now, if they can land a bonafide guy with a proven track record I'm all on board with burning the money. But how much sense does it make to set fire to a pile of cash and replace it with the same (and chance for worse) performance?

It's almost a mortal lock that ANY PITCHER on this current roster could put up numbers better than Eric Milton.

[TeamSelig]

Bullpen spots:

Belisle and Majik (is he hurt?)

Bench:

Deno

[RedFanAlways1966]

It's almost a mortal lock that ANY PITCHER on this current roster could put up numbers better than Eric Milton.

Looking at last season's numbers...

* The REDS had twelve guys start a game.
> ERA: Milton had the 5th best.
> WHIP: Milton had the 4th best.
> Wins: Milton had the 3rd most.

I am not a betting man and I know that it is a common thing to drill Mr. Milton into the ground here, but I am not sure it is a mortal lock that any pitcher on the current roster can put up better numbers. I know of at least 7 starters on last year's roster that didn't. Unless we are talking about a different set of numbers than the ones that I reference above...