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Thread: Arroyo, better than many think?

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    Arroyo, better than many think?

    In 2006, Bronson Arroyo was selected as the lone All-Star representative for the Cincinnati Reds. This was well deserved and appropriately earned. Arroyo had a 9-6 record with a 3.12 ERA in 19 starts by the time he traveled to Pittsburgh for the mid-season extravaganza.

    Arroyo had performed well in his first half season as a National League pitcher as evidenced by the previous numbers. But many say that he fell off in the second half. Many feel that the All-Star game may have given too much attention to Arroyo and that opposing managers decided to scout his pitches a little more. Can we hold this with any kind of truth when we look at his second half numbers?

    Arroyo posted a 5-5 record and a very respectable 3.50 ERA in the second half. His WHIP was slightly better in the second half as he gave up 22 less hits and issued the same amount of walks in 19 less innings. The numbers show that Arroyo remained consistent throughout the season. The only downfall to his game was the fact that he issued too many homeruns. But what Reds pitcher did not do the same?

    I have to admit, I felt as though Arroyo wasn't pitching as well in the second half as well. But was it really the case? The numbers show that we do not have much to worry about when it comes to the 2nd man in the Reds rotation this year.

    I was in fear of right handed hitters facing Arroyo this year as I figured many of the teams would be aware of that tight curveball he delivers on the inside corner on right handers. That ball can get hit hard if it is expected. But many are still fooled and it is still one of his best pitches. If teams start to figure out how to hit that breaking ball, we may start to see the numbers decline. But so far, Arroyo is seeing success and really has not declined in his game.

    Do any of you fear Arroyo having a worse season this year? After viewing the numbers from last season, is it fair to say that he did not slump in the second half? Is their anything to worry about at all with Arroyo right now?

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    I fully expect another very good season from Bronson Arroyo. How good you ask? I would venture to guess somewhere around 220 innings, a WHIP around 1.20, and an ERA in the 3.40-3.50 range.

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    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    He should be in line for another good season, but still some decline.

    I'd guess in the 3.75 ERA range.

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    Member LINEDRIVER's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    Quote Originally Posted by David Cubbedge View Post

    Arroyo had performed well in his first half season as a National League pitcher as evidenced by the previous numbers. But many say that he fell off in the second half. Many feel that the All-Star game may have given too much attention to Arroyo and that opposing managers decided to scout his pitches a little more. Can we hold this with any kind of truth when we look at his second half numbers?
    Bronson's slump started a few weeks before the 2006 All-Star Game. Arroyo went 1-4 over his last 6 starts before the All-Star Break.

    He made ten starts between June 24 and August 10 (4.87 ERA) without picking up a win.

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    Manliness Personified HumnHilghtFreel's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    Quote Originally Posted by LINEDRIVER View Post
    Bronson's slump started a few weeks before the 2006 All-Star Game. Arroyo went 1-4 over his last 6 starts before the All-Star Break.

    He made ten starts between June 24 and August 10 (4.87 ERA) without picking up a win.
    I'd blame the offense for a lot of his slump though.

    Arroyo's no-decision games:

    5 ip, 5 er
    8 ip, 0 er
    6 ip, 4 er
    7 ip, 2 er
    7 ip, 0 er
    8 ip, 2 er
    6 ip, 4 er
    5.2, 5 er
    6 ip, 2 er
    7 ip, 0 er

    65 2/3 ip, 24 er = 3.28 era in no decisions

    In that winless streak, he really wasn't getting a whole lot of help.

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    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    He's a #1 starter along with Aaron Harang. Who'd have thought that anytime during the last 10 years that we'd have two #1 starters to count on going into the 2007 season?

    I don't think either one of them are among the best seven pitchers in the National League, but I think both of them are among the next seven.
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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    He's a #1 starter along with Aaron Harang. Who'd have thought that anytime during the last 10 years that we'd have two #1 starters to count on going into the 2007 season?

    I don't think either one of them are among the best seven pitchers in the National League, but I think both of them are among the next seven.
    Who are the 7 better than Harang and Arroyo?

    Carpenter
    Webb
    Oswalt
    Zambrano

    After those four I'm not sure anyone is better based on last season. Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Brett Myers and very good, but are they really better than Arroyo or Harang? Maybe you can throw in John Smoltz as well, but I don't see how 7 of those guys are better than the Reds 1 and 2.
    Last edited by Jpup; 03-18-2007 at 04:32 PM.
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    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Who are the 7 better than Harang and Arroyo?

    Carpenter
    Webb
    Oswalt
    Zambrano

    After those four I'm not sure anyone is better based on last season. Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Brett Myers and very good, but are they really better than Arroyo or Harang? Maybe you can throw in John Smoltz as well, but I don't see how 7 of those guys are better than the Reds 1 and 2.

    Well, I think the best five National League Pitchers in 2007 will be Carpenter, Zambrano, Smoltz, C. Young and Webb.

    After that, Arroyo could be next, along with Cain and Oswalt...so, maybe top-seven.

    After those eight, then Peavy, Schmidt, Lowe, and Hensley.

    Harang is in the next group after that. Harang just gives up way too many hits and way too many runs. Today was typical as he gave up no walks with 9 K's in 5 innings. Brilliant,....but he also gave up 4 runs, 3 earned and got the loss. Still, if you figure 14 teams in the NL, and he could be the 14th best pitcher in the NL (starters), then that makes him a #1.
    Last edited by Eric_Davis; 03-18-2007 at 05:28 PM.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    I think his ERA will slip maybe half a run to the low 3s, but what I really liked was his consistency. He was tied for 5th in baseball with 23 QS. The four guys ahead of him?

    Chris Capuano, Johan Santana, John Smoltz, and Roy Oswalt. Capuano is actually a fairly good comp stats wise for him. I'm happy with Harang and Arroyo at the front of the rotation. One is a mediocre #1, the other a good #2. His ERA will probably regress a little, but we're basically gonna get the same level of performance in my opinion.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    Well, I think the best five National League Pitchers in 2007 will be Carpenter, Zambrano, Smoltz, C. Young and Webb.

    After that, Arroyo could be next, along with Cain and Oswalt...so, maybe top-seven.

    After those eight, then Peavy, Schmidt, Lowe, and Hensley.

    Harang is in the next group after that. Harang just gives up way too many hits and way too many runs. Today was typical as he gave up no walks with 9 K's in 5 innings. Brilliant,....but he also gave up 4 runs, 3 earned and got the loss. Still, if you figure 14 teams in the NL, and he could be the 14th best pitcher in the NL (starters), then that makes him a #1.
    I disagree Harang is better IMO than Arroyo. In fact I would say after Carpenter, Oswalt, Zambrano and maybe Webb I would place Harang next. Then Smoltz, Schmidt, Cain, Zito and Peavy (if he reverts to the pre-'06 version) and then Arroyo. It could be argued perhaps that Smoltz and Schmidt are also better than Harang but none of the others listed thereafter.

    But any way you cut it, we have 2 of the NL's top 15 starters. And I have both of them on my fantasy team.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    I would toss in Ben Sheets as on of the top 5 pitchers in the NL. When healthy, he might be the best pitcher in the NL.

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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    Good points fellas. The one thing I fear is that both Harang and Arroyo will be heavily scouted as many did not expect much from them last season. Now they are becoming known as good pitchers and people may be watching films before the game a little more often.

    I expect that their success may lead to minor declines as teams are a bit more ready for them this year.

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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    Quote Originally Posted by LINEDRIVER View Post
    Bronson's slump started a few weeks before the 2006 All-Star Game. Arroyo went 1-4 over his last 6 starts before the All-Star Break.

    He made ten starts between June 24 and August 10 (4.87 ERA) without picking up a win.



    Don't forget a few of those games the bullpen contributed to his loss'es.

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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I would toss in Ben Sheets as on of the top 5 pitchers in the NL. When healthy, he might be the best pitcher in the NL.
    Two injury-plagued seasons back to back are managable. If he strings a third one on there this year, he might be on a one-way ticket to Priorville and Woodtown.

    That'd be a shame too -- he's an unbelievable talent.
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    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: Arroyo, better than many think?

    Quote Originally Posted by David Cubbedge View Post
    I have to admit, I felt as though Arroyo wasn't pitching as well in the second half as well. But was it really the case? The numbers show that we do not have much to worry about when it comes to the 2nd man in the Reds rotation this year.

    I was in fear of right handed hitters facing Arroyo this year as I figured many of the teams would be aware of that tight curveball he delivers on the inside corner on right handers. That ball can get hit hard if it is expected. But many are still fooled and it is still one of his best pitches. If teams start to figure out how to hit that breaking ball, we may start to see the numbers decline. But so far, Arroyo is seeing success and really has not declined in his game.
    Arroyo finished last year very well.

    Arroyo's Last 10 Starts in 2006
    70.1 IP, 50 H, 21 ER, 5 HRA.
    >> 2.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 80.0% QS ratio.

    As far as teams figuring him out, his combined stats when he started a 2nd-5th time last year against a team were better than his combined stats when he started for the first time against a team.

    First Start vs. Teams
    15 GS, 98.0 IP, 104 H, 3.58 ERA, 1.36 WHIP.
    Non-First Start vs. Teams
    20 GS, 142.2 IP, 118 H, 3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP.
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