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Thread: The Hardball Times Reds Projection

  1. #16
    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    Jul 2006

    Re: The Hardball Times Reds Projection

    What is the most reflective point in their prediction is how closely bunched all the teams are...based on their numbers, if the Reds were to beat the Cardinals 6 more times than projected, the Reds win the pennant...this division will come down to 2 things: Health and July acquisitions

    The health of guys like Griffey, Sheets, DLee, Prior, etc in addition to injuries to key pitchers/players will be enormous because NONE of the teams in this division can afford injuries with a lack of depth...

    So if we assume teams that are fortunate to be relatively healthy, then it comes down to the best moves in June-July by ownership groups and GM's...

    This actually excites me...we are in a competitive situation, not really of our own doing, but because the division is all pretty mediocre...and I do believe Krivsky and Bob C. will be willing to pull the trigger on deals to get it done (insert Nationals trade curses here )...for as much as we all know about our team's questions, can we really say our rivals don't have as many questions as we do top-to-bottom???

    You cannot defeat an ignorant man in an argument!
    -William Gibbs McAdoo

    Though many of us here are sure trying

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  3. #17
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Huntington, WV

    Re: The Hardball Times Reds Projection

    Our "success" will mostly depend on how many other NLC teams breakout. That's where the majority of our Ws came last year.

    If MIL plays as well as they supposedly should and CHC plays like a $100,000,000,000,000 team (that is what they spent right? ) then we have a rough ride ahead. STL and HOU always annoy (despite our record against them last year) The only team we have a definitive leg up on is PIT.

    I'm still going to remain somewhat optimistic and say 82-80. I, for one, am not doom-and-gloom about our offense or bullpen. The Reds seem steadier this year, unlike the past... no glaring weakness that will drag them down siginificantly but no superlative strengths to carry them into the post season.

    I think our range anywhere from 74 to 86 wins depending on how the cards fall.

    P.S. MLB the Show 07 sims put us between 76 and 86 for what it's worth.

  4. #18
    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Waterloo, NY

    Re: The Hardball Times Reds Projection

    I would love to say 85 wins but some of the decisions being made out of spring training aren't giving us the best opportunity to win.

  5. #19
    smells of rich mahogany deltachi8's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Houston, TX

    Re: The Hardball Times Reds Projection

    73 seems right in the ballpark. As Chris Welch said on XM..Monday it's Harrang, Tuesday Arroyo, then pray for rain until Saturday.
    Nothing to see here. Please disperse.

  6. #20
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    West Side (No Diggity)

    Re: The Hardball Times Reds Projection

    I think we have another season of reasonable parity in the NL Central. Everyone has obvious strengths and gaping weaknesses. So I think everyone beats up on each other in the inter-division games.

    Reds play the Central 79 times. I give them 39-40 wins.

    You never know with Interleague play how it will shake out. We didn't do too well last year. But I think we can split it in 2007. All I ask is one win in each series on the road and 2 wins in the home series. So...

    Reds play Interleague 18 times. I give them 8-9 wins.

    That leaves the NL East and West. Mets and Phils could be tough. And we know about those dreaded west coast trips. But we also see the Nat's and Rockies. I think this is where the season is made or lost. If we can split home/away series and maybe take some extra games here or there from the weaker bunch, then we make our humble run.

    Reds play NL East/West 65 times. Can we win 35-36?

    Add it all up in my little brain (ok I use Excel) and I get a win range from 82-85.

    That just might be enough to win the division again this year. Moreover, it fulfills my annual request: make September interesting.

    Take that, Hardball Times.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  7. #21
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000

    Re: The Hardball Times Reds Projection

    I think that's a reasonable prediction.

    The revamped Cubs are going to be better than the Reds, unless we get a miracle season out of Lohse and/or Milton. I wouldn't count on that.

    STL, Chi, and Mil all have a shot at the division. Houston is a long shot, but not impossible.

    The Reds and Pirates have no shot at all. One of the above 4 teams will likely put things together this year. The Reds' upside is a .500 team again, and we can't expect the division to be as mediocre as it was last year.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  8. #22
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Winton Place

    Re: The Hardball Times Reds Projection

    Interesting that we're having this discussion and today USA Today did an article on the Pirates. It will be an interesting division this year, to say the least, and probably for years to come.

    Pirates on the verge of breaking through?
    By Seth Livingstone, USA TODAY
    BRADENTON, Fla. — Pittsburgh Pirates manager Jim Tracy watched pitcher Paul Maholm give up three runs in the first inning of a spring training game against the New York Yankees. Yet Tracy wasn't bummed out.

    That's because Maholm limited the damage and followed with two shutout innings. "Last season we'd have been more than likely out of that game in the first inning," Tracy says. "To walk back out there like that kid did and rectify himself with two very easy innings, that's growth."

    SPORTS SCOPE: Walker, McCutchen bubbling under 25-man roster

    It's all about that maturation process for a Pittsburgh team that will — on paper — closely resemble the one that finished the season 37-35 after a 30-60 start last season. The 2006 team that dropped 24 of 33 one-run games before the break went 14-6 in those type of games in the second half.

    "We have the opportunity to use that second half as a springboard," Tracy says. "There is enough talent in this room to be a very successful team."

    Can the 2007 Pirates become a National League version of the 2006 Tigers? "I'm not in the prediction business, other than to say that I think we've gotten better and I think better days are ahead," general manager Dave Littlefield says.

    There are parallels to the Tigers for a Pirates franchise down so long (14 consecutive losing seasons) that it seemed to have forgotten how to win.

    As the Pirates pitching staff grows together, it might be complementing a lineup that's in full bloom. The Pirates added the left-handed power they were lacking by trading for first baseman Adam LaRoche, who hit a career-high 32 homers for the Atlanta Braves. He boosts an offense that was last in the NL in runs scored but features NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez at third and All-Star outfielder Jason Bay (35 homers, 109 RBI).

    TEAM REPORTS:Updates from around spring training

    "He adds to our team a strategic component," Tracy says. "We were way too right-handed. All those one-run games we were involved in last year, teams passed on pitching to Sanchez and Bay."

    Bay sees something else: "To be able to go out and find a guy who fit our profile — a young guy like LaRoche, who was probably the No. 1 guy on the wish list … how many teams are able to say, 'We want this guy,' and actually get him? That's big for us and our fans. We've been on the other end of a few of those deals."

    Tracy is stressing that an unselfish, back-to-basics approach with his pitchers as well as position players. "Our pitchers are beginning to gain a full understanding of what they have to do in order to give themselves a chance to win," he says.

    "I see a lot of young guys that are hungry to get on the right track and start wining," LaRoche says of his new surroundings. "For years, this team has asked guys to step into the middle of the fire. They don't have that year or two cushion. It's nice that just about all of them have at least a year's experience."

    At 28, newly acquired right-hander Tony Armas is the only member of the rotation older than 25. Armas will be joined by lefties Maholm (11-11 in his first 36 big-league starts), opening-day starter Zach Duke (18-17 in his first two seasons) and Tom Gorzelanny (2-5 as a rookie), as well as right-hander Ian Snell, who won 14 games last year.

    "Our guys still have to continue to get better, especially our starting pitching," Bay says. "That's basically where we live and die. But we're more confident knowing what Snell did last year and what Gorzelanny and Maholm did."

    "It's the first time I've come to camp where you see everyone believing we have a chance to go out and do something special," says Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh's starting shortstop for a seventh season. "We do think we're going to turn some heads this season."

  9. #23
    Join Date
    Mar 2004

    Re: The Hardball Times Reds Projection

    Bring it on, I like the Reds chances this year! The rotation, on paper, is much deeper, and our bullpen should actually be solid. I think our offense is much more balanced as well. And this is from an 80 win team last year. Cross your fingers!

  10. #24
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006

    Re: The Hardball Times Reds Projection

    Quote Originally Posted by CINCYREDS#1 View Post
    just cuz the cubs spent 1000000000 dollars in the offseason doesnt mean they are suddenly gonna be good
    Like the Yanks for example
    Most Vottomatic Player

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