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Thread: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

  1. #1
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    Now that most of us have witnessed Adam Dunn's new hitting approach (i.e. going back to what made him a superstar prospect), read about it, or heard about it from the announcers, what are your feelings on Adam Dunn now? Do you think he will turn into the player we all thought he would be when he first arrived (perennial 1.000+ OPS guy) or will he still be the same Adam Dunn (still a great hitter).

    My opinion is as follows: It's only a small sample size but he definitely looks like a different Adam Dunn than we have seen over the last three or four years. He's dropped weight. He's hitting the ball to the opposite field like he did in the minors, and he seems like he had a plan on every pitch now. The last few years he's been pull happy thanks to some bad advice given to him, but now he is simply hitting the ball where its pitched. He looks great. I made a comment in the game thread today that I thought he was poised for a MVP type season and I fully believe that. There's no doubt he has the talent to do it.

    If he continues to use the whole field as he is this spring then expect a solid boost in batting average. I would say somewhere in the .280 area, give or take a few points. You know Dunn will get his yearly 110-120 walks which boosts the OBP well over .400. Dunn is also in much better shape this season, which should help him stay fresh toward the end of the season and eliminate those awful end of the season slumps he went through the last two seasons. With that said, here is my 2007 prediction for Adam Dunn:

    .275-.280 BA/.415 OBP/.610 SLG

    54 homeruns and 130 walks - both Reds franchise records

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  3. #2
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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    I'll say he puts up numbers right in line with his career norms. That is to say, very, very good numbers that people complain about.

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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Now that most of us have witnessed Adam Dunn's new hitting approach (i.e. going back to what made him a superstar prospect), read about it, or heard about it from the announcers, what are your feelings on Adam Dunn now? Do you think he will turn into the player we all thought he would be when he first arrived (perennial 1.000+ OPS guy) or will he still be the same Adam Dunn (still a great hitter).

    My opinion is as follows: It's only a small sample size but he definitely looks like a different Adam Dunn than we have seen over the last three or four years. He's dropped weight. He's hitting the ball to the opposite field like he did in the minors, and he seems like he had a plan on every pitch now. The last few years he's been pull happy thanks to some bad advice given to him, but now he is simply hitting the ball where its pitched. He looks great. I made a comment in the game thread today that I thought he was poised for a MVP type season and I fully believe that. There's no doubt he has the talent to do it.

    If he continues to use the whole field as he is this spring then expect a solid boost in batting average. I would say somewhere in the .280 area, give or take a few points. You know Dunn will get his yearly 110-120 walks which boosts the OBP well over .400. Dunn is also in much better shape this season, which should help him stay fresh toward the end of the season and eliminate those awful end of the season slumps he went through the last two seasons. With that said, here is my 2007 prediction for Adam Dunn:

    .275-.280 BA/.415 OBP/.610 SLG

    54 homeruns and 130 walks - both Reds franchise records


    wow...you've got him shattering his career bests in every category....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #4
    part of BBN jmac's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    I am really expecting a 45 hr/120 rbi from him (and hoping for more than that)!

  6. #5
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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    He'll hit 74 home runs

    Doesn't hurt to stay optimistic
    Most Vottomatic Player

  7. #6
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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    There's nothing to indicate that this is going to be a career year for Adam, other than the fact that he's having a good spring. But he's a notoriously streak hitter. Sure, several factors will probably cause slight deviation from his three-year average, but he's past the point where a hitter would normally 'take off.' Of course, there are exceptions.

    My prediction:

    .250, 45, 110

    He will probably start the year on an MVP-like tear but the 0-20 streaks to which he is prone will bring his average down over the course of the season.

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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    .273/51/117

  9. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    .267/48/115
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #9
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    He will lead off in more inning then everyone other then Ryan Freel
    Go Gators!

  11. #10
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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    He'll do something like this (.254/.377/.540 w/40 hrs) while playing below average defense and running the bases poorly....

    Also, not to point out the obvious about spring training (no its not that ST stats are meaningless) but Dunn hasn't had to face the shift....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #11
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    Don't know about any other games but her certainly faced it today, unless the 2nd baseman is usually that close to 1st.
    Last edited by KronoRed; 03-24-2007 at 09:29 PM.
    Go Gators!

  13. #12
    Member tripleaaaron's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    Im guessing he wil go around:
    .267 with 48 HR and 121 RBI
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  14. #13
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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    .212/35/83 with 191 k's
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

  15. #14
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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    .212/35/83 with 191 k's
    Ouch....guess you're not scouring ebay for game used Dunn items....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: 2007 Adam Dunn predictions

    If he continues to use the whole field as he is this spring then expect a solid boost in batting average.

    I want it to happen, I have him in a Fantasy league and I am a big red's fan. I don't want to get too excited though until he takes it to the regular season. He did the same thing a few years ago, cut down on his swing and was on fire in the spring, when the regular season started he went back to his old ways.

    I don't disagree in what he can do, could be a monster but I want to see it when it counts.


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