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Thread: PECOTA predicts ...

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    PECOTA predicts ...

    Reds will finish last in the NL Central

    Cincinnati Reds (71-91)

    Take the Over: My world was shaken yesterday when I learned that Todd Coffey can hit 98 on the radar gun. That leads me to put more credence in his strikeout rate breakout in 2006. If he can consolidate that with the good command that he’s displayed before, he could provide the Reds with a much-needed solution in the bullpen.

    Take the Under: Adam Dunn has been getting a lot of positive buzz this spring, but PECOTA has missed high on him often enough, and there are enough questions about his work ethic, that I don’t quite feel comfortable with his monster .267/.390/.574 projection.

    Sticking to My Guns: Chris Denorfia’s stat lines are tough to read because he’s been shuffled back and forth between levels, but the skill set is genuinely pretty good. He’ll reward the Reds for any playing time that they find for him by matching his .296/.365/.459 projection.

    The Verdict: PECOTA already accounts for several potential breakouts-–Dunn, Denorfia, Edwin Encarnacion-–and still only gets the Reds to 71 wins. On the other hand, the Reds stand to save themselves a lot of headaches simply by shifting Ken Griffey Jr. out of center field, so I'll go with +1, and a final record of 72-90.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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  3. #2
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    One can only hope that it's off.

    On that note... the AL Central Pecota projections in 2005
    Code:
    AL Central
    
    
                 W   L   PCT   RS   RA
    Twins       86  76  .533  827  772
    Indians     85  77  .525  832  791
    White Sox   80  82  .497  821  826
    Tigers      76  86  .467  788  843
    Royals      69  93  .427  765  889
    Actual

    Code:
    AL Central
    
    Team Name                        G    W    L    T   PCT    GB    RS   RA
    Chicago White Sox              162   99   63    0  .611     -   741  645
    Cleveland Indians              162   93   69    0  .574   6.0   790  642
    Minnesota Twins                162   83   79    0  .512  16.0   688  662
    Detroit Tigers                 162   71   91    0  .438  28.0   723  787
    Kansas City Royals             162   56  106    0  .346  43.0   701  935

  4. #3
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    Does it project the division to be fairly close? Or does it project some team to hit the 90 of 95 win mark?
    When people say that I don’t know what I’m talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski

  5. #4
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    I have a hard time believing that the Pirates, and maybe the Cubs, will finish ahead of the Reds, small consolation that is.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  6. #5
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    Does it project the division to be fairly close? Or does it project some team to hit the 90 of 95 win mark?
    had 85-77 tie between the Cubs and Brewers at the top of the division.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  7. #6
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    had 85-77 tie between the Cubs and Brewers at the top of the division.
    I say they fight to the death to break the tie.
    "I can make all the stadiums rock."
    -Air Supply

  8. #7
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    Someone wins 90 in this division this year, I am calling it now.

  9. #8
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Someone wins 90 in this division this year, I am calling it now.
    Only team good enough in this division to win 90 games is the Milwaukee Brewers. I have them finishing first and the Reds second.

  10. #9
    Hisssssssss Yachtzee's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    had 85-77 tie between the Cubs and Brewers at the top of the division.
    Yeah, but PECOTA knows nothing of goat curses and Brew Crew bunglings.
    Burn down the disco. Hang the blessed DJ. Because the music that he constantly plays, it says nothing to me about my life.

  11. #10
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    Even with the Reds have Narron and the Cubs having Pinella, the Cubs will not finish 15 games ahead of the Reds this year, despite what the almighty PECOTA says.
    Win the Division

  12. #11
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...


  13. #12
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    One can only hope that it's off.

    On that note... the AL Central Pecota projections in 2005
    Code:
    AL Central
    
    
                 W   L   PCT   RS   RA
    Twins       86  76  .533  827  772
    Indians     85  77  .525  832  791
    White Sox   80  82  .497  821  826
    Tigers      76  86  .467  788  843
    Royals      69  93  .427  765  889
    Actual

    Code:
    AL Central
    
    Team Name                        G    W    L    T   PCT    GB    RS   RA
    Chicago White Sox              162   99   63    0  .611     -   741  645
    Cleveland Indians              162   93   69    0  .574   6.0   790  642
    Minnesota Twins                162   83   79    0  .512  16.0   688  662
    Detroit Tigers                 162   71   91    0  .438  28.0   723  787
    Kansas City Royals             162   56  106    0  .346  43.0   701  935

    The worry is that it looks like PECOTA is dead on in predicting who finishes last.
    "Is there a problem officers?"

  14. #13
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Only team good enough in this division to win 90 games is the Milwaukee Brewers. I have them finishing first and the Reds second.
    The only thing with the Brewers is they've actually been pretty talented in the past few years and should have done better that they did.

    It never seems to come together, in the end. Until they show they can put it together, I expect more of the same

  15. #14
    One Man Army
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    The only thing with the Brewers is they've actually been pretty talented in the past few years and should have done better that they did.

    It never seems to come together, in the end. Until they show they can put it together, I expect more of the same
    Ditto. It's like the Arizona Cardinals over the past few years; a heck of a lot of talent, everyone always predicting them to be sleepers in preseason, and nothing to show for it.

  16. #15
    Member Moosie52's Avatar
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    Re: PECOTA predicts ...

    Who knows what will happen. There could (probably will) be injuries to key players.


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