Cincinnati Reds (71-91)
Take the Over: My world was shaken yesterday when I learned that Todd Coffey can hit 98 on the radar gun. That leads me to put more credence in his strikeout rate breakout in 2006. If he can consolidate that with the good command that he’s displayed before, he could provide the Reds with a much-needed solution in the bullpen.
Take the Under: Adam Dunn has been getting a lot of positive buzz this spring, but PECOTA has missed high on him often enough, and there are enough questions about his work ethic, that I don’t quite feel comfortable with his monster .267/.390/.574 projection.
Sticking to My Guns: Chris Denorfia’s stat lines are tough to read because he’s been shuffled back and forth between levels, but the skill set is genuinely pretty good. He’ll reward the Reds for any playing time that they find for him by matching his .296/.365/.459 projection.
The Verdict: PECOTA already accounts for several potential breakouts-–Dunn, Denorfia, Edwin Encarnacion-–and still only gets the Reds to 71 wins. On the other hand, the Reds stand to save themselves a lot of headaches simply by shifting Ken Griffey Jr. out of center field, so I'll go with +1, and a final record of 72-90.