BA's got one scout's take on Homer Bailey up on its site.
Without recapping the entire piece, the scout thinks Homer's going to be a bit frustrating for the next few years. Probably his key point is, "if there's one guy to be wary of in terms of will stuff exceed performance, I think this is a guy who might do it."
Obviously it's just one guy's opinion, but I always appreciate it when someone's willing to critique top prospects rather than lionize them.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
The scout's take is this -- he needs the changeup. Very few starters can get by with two excellent pitches, such as Homer has. The scout also points out that the Reds ballpark should add to Homer's early struggles.
On the bright side, he says Homer has the best pure stuff of any pitching prospect in the game.
He should really spend most of his time at AAA refining his change and working on locating his curve.
Did he spend much time with Soto this spring? If he didn't there is something wrong.
Tracy Jones said this morning, that a scout he talked to told him that Homer was pitching at 92-93 mph. Instead of the 96-97 he worked at last year. Granted this was early in spring training but it is something to monitor.
Hugs, smiling, and interactive Twitter accounts, don't mean winning baseball. Until this community understands that we are cursed to relive the madness.
Bailey worked that speed during last years spring training as well, right into the start of the regular season. Not uncommon for power pitchers.Originally Posted by LoganBuck
Homer Bailey is a great talent, with a very high ceiling. The fact that BA feels their is some risk to him faltering in the next year or two, is inconsequential. That could have been said of any of MLB's current Aces. The road to the majors always has some bumps. He will gain confidence, and as he becomes more comfortable, he'll regain his fast-ball velocity. The way that the organization and Homer deal with the adversity will probably be the key as to how successful he becomes. He was a great pick and in a year or two he'll the 1 or 2 in the rotation.
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