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Thread: Burton sent to 15-day DL to make room for Milton

  1. #31
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Who goes down tomorrow with Milty coming back?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Reds obviously have made decision that, for now, Milton is fifth starter and will pitch when fifth starter is needed -- which is not every five days because of off-days and ability to skip fifth starter some times. Nobody else has really been groomed to start right now -- Saarloos and Santos have pitched short stints only; Livingston was sent down for seasoning.

    I'm sure Krivsky has considered eating the Milton fixed cost and has decided to give him one more shot in this fifth starter role. Meanwhile, Bailey, Livingston and even Dumatrait could emerge at AAA. By mid-season, with half of Milton's last year gone, moving him will be an easier pill to swallow if he hasn't done well in '07.

    After Milton's last two season, I will be joining the groans if he gets lit up today or in his first few outings. Still, if he is healthy and has worked with the new pitching coach (they keep saying he is mixing in more changeups) maybe he will contribute.

    As for the cut, the best thing would be if the Reds could work a deal to keep Burton and send him down. Coutlangus seems more ready and, when Bray and ultimately Majewski are ready Burton's presence will create a log jam. Still, the Reds can't just lose Burton at this point so probably Cout goes to AAA. Santos, I think, needs to stay since he can throw two or possibly three innings.
    I've suspected since the season started that Milton's DL stint was a bit of twofold ploy. First, it helped with the roster squeeze, temporarily allowing the Reds to either work a trade, making additional room plus keeping Santos. But it also allowed the Reds to sidestep a demotion of Milton, thereby allowing a move of him into the fifth spot. IMO, that's a classy thing to do for a veteran guy who's not run away from his problems. I think it's good to treat people that way. It bodes well for the future of letting players know this is a class organization that's not going to run you down, even when you're failing.

    Now, of course, Milton must perform. At least for now, he'll only be running out there on occasions when the fifth slot is needed. He might even have a stint where a long guy is needed between starts, but I doubt that.

    The roster glut frankly is a good place to be. For the first time in a long time, we're squeezed to find spots for good pitchers (overall) and we've got a glut of good replacements down in Louisville (which has mostly, in recent years, been stocked with a many pretenders, if you will, guys who could be successful at AAA, but who have struggled at the ML level).

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  3. #32
    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    Re: Who goes down tomorrow with Milty coming back?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Reds obviously have made decision that, for now, Milton is fifth starter and will pitch when fifth starter is needed -- which is not every five days because of off-days and ability to skip fifth starter some times. Nobody else has really been groomed to start right now -- Saarloos and Santos have pitched short stints only; Livingston was sent down for seasoning.

    I'm sure Krivsky has considered eating the Milton fixed cost and has decided to give him one more shot in this fifth starter role. Meanwhile, Bailey, Livingston and even Dumatrait could emerge at AAA. By mid-season, with half of Milton's last year gone, moving him will be an easier pill to swallow if he hasn't done well in '07.

    After Milton's last two season, I will be joining the groans if he gets lit up today or in his first few outings. Still, if he is healthy and has worked with the new pitching coach (they keep saying he is mixing in more changeups) maybe he will contribute.

    As for the cut, the best thing would be if the Reds could work a deal to keep Burton and send him down. Coutlangus seems more ready and, when Bray and ultimately Majewski are ready Burton's presence will create a log jam.
    I agree totally...I wouldn't be surprised with WK trying to negotiate with the A's on the whole PTBNL thing making some type of deal to keep Burton and then send him down...he obviously needs some AAA grooming...

    Some real interesting decisions coming down in the pen in the coming weeks with Bray and Majewski coming back...

    Good golly, bullpen depth as a potential trade commodity...wow


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  4. #33
    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: Who goes down tomorrow with Milty coming back?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    By mid-season, with half of Milton's last year gone, moving him will be an easier pill to swallow if he hasn't done well in '07.
    So we take the damage on the field to go with the salary that was due to be paid no matter what. I just can't understand the logic in this.

    He's not one of our 12 best pitchers. His money has to be paid no matter what. You don't get any of the money "back" by running a player out there every 5th day when better options are availible in house. All you get from that are losses and I for one have had my fill of that the past few years.

    As for the fear that he can be had cheap if we release him, what do we care if some team desperate enough to pick up Milton gets him cheap? They could have signed Paul Wilson and Dustin Hermanson cheap as well, do we lose sleep over that possibility?

  5. #34
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    Re: Who goes down tomorrow with Milty coming back?

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    So we take the damage on the field to go with the salary that was due to be paid no matter what. I just can't understand the logic in this.


    As for the fear that he can be had cheap if we release him, what do we care if some team desperate enough to pick up Milton gets him cheap? They could have signed Paul Wilson and Dustin Hermanson cheap as well, do we lose sleep over that possibility?
    I don't disagree. I was simply saying with the Reds are obviously thinking.

    However, keep in mind that the Reds this offseason operated as if Milton was a starter. They did not go out and get starting pitching. Saarloos, I thought, was one but then they put him in the pen. Right now they really only have three proven starters (if you count Lohse), although perhaps Belisle will pan out in this role.

    This is why I hoped the Reds would add a mid-rotation type starter this off-season. Now, if it's not Milton, I don't see a natural replacement. Again, there are three starters at AAA -- Bailey, Dumatrait, Livingston -- who could fill that role depending on how they do this year.

  6. #35
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Who goes down tomorrow with Milty coming back?

    I'm not buying their story, but I like it.

    Nobody ever said that honesty wins pennants.
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

  7. #36
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Who goes down tomorrow with Milty coming back?

    Reds obviously have made decision that, for now, Milton is fifth starter and will pitch when fifth starter is needed
    Eric will be given a chance, just like Frankie Pentangeli was given a chance.

  8. #37
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Burton sent to 15-day DL to make room for Milton

    I think if Milton is his usual self today, he's gone.
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  9. #38
    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: Burton sent down to make room for Milton

    Milton hasn't been good in 3-4 years and its due to well documented medical issues that aren't ever going to heal. I have an issue with giving him a chance to see if he can do better because I feel they are using "lets see how he does" to buy time instead of making a tough decision now. You see it all the time in everyones place of business.

    The only strategic reason I can see for running him out there is that they feel none of the possible in house replacements can give equal or greater production than Milton. Does anyone here believe that to be the case? I didn't get to see HB, Livingston et al in spring training.

  10. #39
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Who goes down tomorrow with Milty coming back?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Eric will be given a chance, just like Frankie Pentangeli was given a chance.

    So, they're bringing in Milton's brother to sit in the dugout?
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
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  11. #40
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Burton sent to 15-day DL to make room for Milton

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I think if Milton is his usual self today, he's gone.
    I think it'll take 3-5 awful starts for the Reds to dump him, if he's "good" meaning an era near but not over 6 then I see the Reds just sucking it up for 30 starts of it and not eating 9 million.
    Go Gators!

  12. #41
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Who goes down tomorrow with Milty coming back?

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62 View Post
    So, they're bringing in Milton's brother to sit in the dugout?
    Yes.

    I saw him at the bus stop awhile ago.


  13. #42
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Who goes down tomorrow with Milty coming back?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds1 View Post
    I believe he had the best ERA in the NL when we picked him up last year. I agree he does get a bad wrap on this board. I thought he looked good yesterday. Reds gave him a couple million to keep him so they must see something there. If he is comfortable in his role I see a good year for him if he stays healthy.
    There's a lot more to it than ERA. That can be very misleading.

    with the Phillies, Cormier had extremely fortunate luck. This was shown with his .232 BAPIP (something beyond his control). With normal luck, that number should really be in the .290 range, meaning Cormier deserved to give up a lot more hits.

    Overall last season he had a peripheral based ERA of 5.01 which is a much better indication of how good a pitcher he is. In '05 this number was 5.38 and in '04 it was 4.34.

    Basically, Cormier has been a well below average relief pitcher over the last 3 seasons, but has benefited from a lot of good luck. That's not something that the Reds should be banking on to continue. Things could get very ugly for Cormier.

    When you factor in that he's not very durable, and that he isn't any better against lefties than righties, and you have a pitcher with very little value. The Reds have better options (or at least younger options that have a decent shot at outproducing Cormier), so the Reds are better off with him gone.

    You might be able to find some sucker to take his salary in a trade. I would bet many GMs would look at his ERA last season and think he's a top set-up man. In this pitching starved market you see teams take chances on Cormier all the time (even at salaries above 2M).

  14. #43
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    Re: Burton sent to 15-day DL to make room for Milton

    1. Wayne K. is learning you can build a bullpen through looking at starters and converting them to relief pitchers, using the rule 5, and looking at AAA players. You don't have to trade everyday players for relief pitchers. It's good lesson to learn. Bowden was great at building a bullpen every year through this method. There were some years where he had to bring in 3 or 4 new bullpen arms and he did it. Rarely did the team not have good BP's when he was the GM and rarely did they pay an arm and a leg. I'm hoping Wayne K. has learned the lesson.

    2. I know Eric Milton is not a good pitcher, but he did go a couple of times last year when he shouldn't have and in a sense he took one for the team. He'll always take the ball- he'll never claim he's tired. Narron and the pitching coach have to watch him like a hawk to know when to pull him or skip him. He (milton) does himself know favors by ALWAYS taking the ball. Monitor him very closely and cut your losses before things go way south. Makes me wonder if he's really ready (for today's start) or if he's taking his turn because he "has to". Also, Narron referred to Milton not being the kind of pitcher you could use the in the bullpen. Wondering if that isn't about Milton's ability to get ready OR if it's more about Milton's lack of ability to tell the truth about his stuff and where he's at. A pitcher in the BP has to be (for lack of better word) truthful about where his body and arm are at. If he has a problem telling the coaches where he's at--there may be a trust factor there that makes it impossible to use him in the BP.

    3. Wondering how he compares to other 5th starters in the NL. I'm guessing he's right in the middle of the pack performance wise. If you monitor him really closely--maybe you could get a 4.80-5.00 ERA out of him --my guess is, that's really good for a 5th starter. 9 million for a 5th starter seems harsh- i agree with all the other folks who have mentioned sunk costs.

    4. Any of the stat guys know if Dick Pole has been able to build good bullpens etc..has his record showed an improvement in overall team ERA teh first year he's been there as a pitching coach?

  15. #44
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Burton sent to 15-day DL to make room for Milton

    Any of the stat guys know if Dick Pole has been able to build good bullpens etc..has his record showed an improvement in overall team ERA teh first year he's been there as a pitching coach?
    Pole was the Giants coach 93-97, he had some studs, Mike Jackson, Rod Beck, Burba and Brantley. He also had to take the ball away from Dave Righetti. More important about that year was the Giants were a two horse staff (Burkett and Swift) no other starter had over 20 starts and they only had 4 complete games that year (Maddux had 8 himself).

    So the man has some experienced shuffling the bottom of the deck.

  16. #45
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    Re: Who goes down tomorrow with Milty coming back?

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    There's a lot more to it than ERA. That can be very misleading.

    with the Phillies, Cormier had extremely fortunate luck. This was shown with his .232 BAPIP (something beyond his control). With normal luck, that number should really be in the .290 range, meaning Cormier deserved to give up a lot more hits.

    Overall last season he had a peripheral based ERA of 5.01 which is a much better indication of how good a pitcher he is. In '05 this number was 5.38 and in '04 it was 4.34.

    Basically, Cormier has been a well below average relief pitcher over the last 3 seasons, but has benefited from a lot of good luck. That's not something that the Reds should be banking on to continue. Things could get very ugly for Cormier.

    When you factor in that he's not very durable, and that he isn't any better against lefties than righties, and you have a pitcher with very little value. The Reds have better options (or at least younger options that have a decent shot at outproducing Cormier), so the Reds are better off with him gone.

    You might be able to find some sucker to take his salary in a trade. I would bet many GMs would look at his ERA last season and think he's a top set-up man. In this pitching starved market you see teams take chances on Cormier all the time (even at salaries above 2M).
    Peripheral ERA sounds sweet. Is that tracked everywhere?
    I hope it's never sunny in Philly again.


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