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Thread: Reds approach to this years draft

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    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Reds approach to this years draft

    Im not very sure about the draftees in this years draft, maybe you guys could help me out there. I would like to see them go another year of drafting the best pitcher available this year in at least the top 4 of the 5 picks they have this year. I know theyve got a couple of compensation picks early on.

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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3 View Post
    Im not very sure about the draftees in this years draft, maybe you guys could help me out there. I would like to see them go another year of drafting the best pitcher available this year in at least the top 4 of the 5 picks they have this year. I know theyve got a couple of compensation picks early on.
    Reds have other needs too. Right handed power. Catching.

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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    I think we should take the best available player in the first round, and that round is going to be heavy on pitching. In the supplemental round, my guess is that we get a catcher.

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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Hi everyone! Im new to the RedsZone and i just wanted to say the site is awesome! I think that the Reds should take a position player with their first pick maybe a SS or C. I know that the catcher position is a bit of a reach because they usually switch to a new position but it is a need on this team. Their are a lot of pitchers available in the draft and with all of the picks that the Reds have i think they can afford to wait until the supplemental pick to take one.


    GO REDS!!!!!

  6. #5
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    A free agent catcher last year who hit .284 with 19 HR and 57 RBI signed a 3 year, $16 million dollar contract for 2007.

    A free agent pitcher last year who went 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA signed a 5 year, $55 million dollar contract.

    The catcher was Bengie Molina, the pitcher was Gil Meche.

    Pitching is way more overpriced than any other position and the Reds will never be heavily stocked in that department unless they draft a lot of it.

    I think the Reds have to take the best player on the board with a heavy weighting on starting pitching. If the best player isn't a pitcher, they have to be a stud. A catcher and SS are 2 great positions to focus on as well, but if they could get a college pitcher who is ready in 2-3 years, look out. They will have a HUGE front 4. Cincy has enough higher picks this year to really make a statement. But if they can snag 2 good college pitching prospects with those selections and then fill in with some solid position picks, the future will look pretty good.

    What am I getting at above? Molina cost half what Meche cost and, for their positions, they are probably about the same in effectiveness. Both a little above average. If I had a hole on my team, I'd rather have a hole at catcher and fill it with Molina than have a hole in my rotation and fill it with Meche. Especially with that economic pitcher illustrated above.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Stay away from drafting catchers in the first 5 rounds. They are the least likely drafted players to actually make the major leagues, the least likely to be productive and the least likely to stick at their position of any type of player you can take, and that includes pitchers.

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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    A free agent catcher last year who hit .284 with 19 HR and 57 RBI signed a 3 year, $16 million dollar contract for 2007.

    A free agent pitcher last year who went 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA signed a 5 year, $55 million dollar contract.

    The catcher was Bengie Molina, the pitcher was Gil Meche.

    Pitching is way more overpriced than any other position and the Reds will never be heavily stocked in that department unless they draft a lot of it.
    I agree totally, with the way the prices are for pitching IMO you must draft top flight pitching every year and when you trade you trade for good young pitching prospects every year. Pete said opening day his advice to Castellini was if you think youve got good pitching on your ballclub go get some more.

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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Stay away from drafting catchers in the first 5 rounds.
    Unless you are drafting them as a hitter first and catcher second. You shouldn't pass on a guy with a great bat just because he was a catcher in HS. Louisville's first basemen (Votto) is a good example of the kind of guy you shouldn't pass on just because he was a HS catcher.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 04-08-2007 at 03:31 PM.

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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook View Post
    Unless you are drafting them as a hitter first and catcher second. You shouldn't pass on a guy with a great bat just because he was a catcher in HS.
    I did a draft study from 1997-2000 and catchers from anywhere were easily the worst draft picks made in that time. Here is a list of guys drafted as catchers who made it to the majors out of the 60 drafted in the first 5 rounds... not an awe inspiring list.
    Code:
    Name	         AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	PA	Notes
    Brandon Inge	2406	581	116	24	71	195	561	2672	316 of 728 games at catcher
    Robert Fick	2176	567	110	11	67	216	344	2437	178 of 2176 games as catcher
    Matt Lecroy	1368	358	67	1	60	123	328	1519	120 of 469 games at catcher
    Yadier Molina	937	223	47	1	16	62	91	1033	
    Josh Bard	744	201	44	1	22	68	119	816	
    Jayson Werth	721	177	39	6	25	87	232	825	Never played a MLB game as a catcher
    Gerald Laird	474	126	30	2	10	31	107	520	
    J.D. Closser	447	107	21	3	10	50	93	506	
    Ryan Doumit	380	90	22	1	12	26	90	435	
    Jason Grabowski	301	59	8	1	11	33	85	335	
    Rob Bowen	131	27	5	0	4	17	40	153	
    Koyie Hill	117	27	7	0	1	13	35	132	
    Brandon Harper	41	12	3	0	2	4	4	46	
    J.R. House	19	2	1	0	0	0	4	19	
    Mike Tonis	6	0	0	0	0	1	0	7	
    Dane Sardinha	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	5

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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    I agree with your general premise ... but most of those guys were drafted high because of their gloves, not their bats. I agree that toolsy defensive catchers should not be drated in premium draft positions, but if a guy can flat-out rake then I don't care what position he played in HS.

  12. #11
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook View Post
    I agree with your general premise ... but most of those guys were drafted high because of their gloves, not their bats. I agree that toolsy defensive catchers should not be drated in premium draft positions, but if a guy can flat-out rake then I don't care what position he played in HS.
    I will go with that, but I would also hope the Reds move him away from catcher.

  13. #12
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    In the first round you don't pick on needs. Or rather if you do, your playing the fool.

    Needs of baseball teams drastically change over time. What looks like a team weakness now could be a strength in three years - you just never know. The pick your spending the most money on you make the best possible choice. That is - the safest choice with highest upside. In the later rounds you work on needs, but the early picks are your big money picks- history shows that those have the highest percentage of making the big show - make it count.

  14. #13
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I did a draft study from 1997-2000 and catchers from anywhere were easily the worst draft picks made in that time. Here is a list of guys drafted as catchers who made it to the majors out of the 60 drafted in the first 5 rounds... not an awe inspiring list.
    Code:
    Name	         AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	PA	Notes
    Brandon Inge	2406	581	116	24	71	195	561	2672	316 of 728 games at catcher
    Robert Fick	2176	567	110	11	67	216	344	2437	178 of 2176 games as catcher
    Matt Lecroy	1368	358	67	1	60	123	328	1519	120 of 469 games at catcher
    Yadier Molina	937	223	47	1	16	62	91	1033	
    Josh Bard	744	201	44	1	22	68	119	816	
    Jayson Werth	721	177	39	6	25	87	232	825	Never played a MLB game as a catcher
    Gerald Laird	474	126	30	2	10	31	107	520	
    J.D. Closser	447	107	21	3	10	50	93	506	
    Ryan Doumit	380	90	22	1	12	26	90	435	
    Jason Grabowski	301	59	8	1	11	33	85	335	
    Rob Bowen	131	27	5	0	4	17	40	153	
    Koyie Hill	117	27	7	0	1	13	35	132	
    Brandon Harper	41	12	3	0	2	4	4	46	
    J.R. House	19	2	1	0	0	0	4	19	
    Mike Tonis	6	0	0	0	0	1	0	7	
    Dane Sardinha	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
    I disagree Doug. You just happened to look during a time of an amazingly weak crop of young catchers. Which is why, 7 to 10 years later, there is an amazing derth of even league average catchers in the bigs.

    Look at some of the names drafted as catchers the last several seasons in the first couple of rounds

    2001
    Joe Mauer
    Jeff Mathis
    Kelly Shoppach
    2002
    Jeremy Brown
    Chris Snyder
    Brian McCann
    2003
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia

    Sure you can occasionally grab a Russ Martin type as a 3B prospect in the late teen rounds and convert him to a catcher, but those guys are few and far between.

    It's all about scouting and the talent available. The Catching crop in this years draft is a huge strength, and the Reds ignoring that could be overlooking a top shelf talent.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the Reds take a catcher with one of their top picks - Catching fits right in with Krivsky's Defense tenet and there are quite a few big hitters/excellent fielders beind the plate available for draft this June.

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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Stay away from drafting catchers in the first 5 rounds. They are the least likely drafted players to actually make the major leagues, the least likely to be productive and the least likely to stick at their position of any type of player you can take, and that includes pitchers.
    I think that is very interesting and I read the thread you posted about this earlier. However, two guys that will probably be available when the Reds draft in the supplemental 1st round are Mitch Canham and Josh Donaldson are converted 3Bs who have been catching for the last year. They're putting up good numbers, and one would think that they have the physical tools to become good defenders, on the basis of their move?

    What about guys like that?

  16. #15
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcclain19 View Post
    I disagree Doug. You just happened to look during a time of an amazingly weak crop of young catchers. Which is why, 7 to 10 years later, there is an amazing derth of even league average catchers in the bigs.

    Look at some of the names drafted as catchers the last several seasons in the first couple of rounds

    2001
    Joe Mauer
    Jeff Mathis
    Kelly Shoppach
    2002
    Jeremy Brown
    Chris Snyder
    Brian McCann
    2003
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia

    Sure you can occasionally grab a Russ Martin type as a 3B prospect in the late teen rounds and convert him to a catcher, but those guys are few and far between.

    It's all about scouting and the talent available. The Catching crop in this years draft is a huge strength, and the Reds ignoring that could be overlooking a top shelf talent.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the Reds take a catcher with one of their top picks - Catching fits right in with Krivsky's Defense tenet and there are quite a few big hitters/excellent fielders beind the plate available for draft this June.
    Of that group only McCann and Mauer have shown to be good hitters in the Majors. Shoppach will turn 27 this month and has 125 at bats in the majors and his OPS in those at bats is .605. Mathis fell apart last year, and even then still has an OPS in the minors of .796. Jeremy Brown is 27 years old and has 10 major league at bats. Chris Snyder has 606 major league at bats and has a .681 OPS in the majors. Saltalamaccia fell on his face last year hitting .230 with a .380 slugging percentage....

    So still, I think that my point is fairly valid.

    I am not going to hate if the Reds take a catcher. I will root for the guy and hope for the best. If the Reds scouts say hey 'Catcher #23' is the best guy on the board, then I hope they take him. But historically, catchers don't pan out to be even decent hitters.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 04-08-2007 at 06:56 PM.


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