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Thread: Reds approach to this years draft

  1. #16
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    I did a draft study from 1997-2000 and catchers from anywhere were easily the worst draft picks made in that time.
    Do you think that's because the grind of catching hinders their offensive development or they were just mediocre hitters in the first place who were overrated because of playing a highly defensive position?

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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Do you think that's because the grind of catching hinders their offensive development or they were just mediocre hitters in the first place who were overrated because of playing a highly defensive position?
    probably due to catching. historically catchers break down so much faster than other players.... not that you didnt already know that.

  4. #18
    Member Topcat's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Draft pitching and then more pitching. it is the most valued commodity and it can be traded to fill other needs.
    2006 Redzone mock Draftee's- 1(st) Daniel Bard(redsox), 1(st sup)( Jordan Walden (Angels), 2(nd) rd.- Zach Britton(Orioles), 3(rd) Blair Erickson(Cardinals), 3(rd) Tim Norton( Yankees),(cuz its a Tim Hortons thing

    Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.

  5. #19
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Topcat View Post
    Draft pitching and then more pitching. it is the most valued commodity and it can be traded to fill other needs.
    Its also the second least likely thing to pan out. cant trade it if you dont have much of it. draft the best player available on the board.

  6. #20
    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Youre right Doug but this is a special situation where until the Reds can be like the White Sox and Tigers and consistently bring up stud after stud to their pitching staff I've gotta keep drafting boat loads of pitching and hope I can find a diamond in the mud with our lower draft picks as far position players. IMO 3 out of 4 picks should be pitchers every year until you reach round 10. Just my thoughts.

  7. #21
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Its also the second least likely thing to pan out. cant trade it if you dont have much of it. draft the best player available on the board.
    Gil Meche = $55 million.

    The Reds are pretty much out of the FA pitching market until further notice. So unless they pull some more Harang and Arroyo-like miracles, the team will be devoid of good pitching unless they draft the hell out of it.

    If there was an OFer and SP on the board, with the OFer rated a little higher than the college SP, would you want the OFer? I can't agree with that logic. The Reds are ok in the OF for the time being (OF os Stubbs, Bruce and Dunn within 3 years hopefully). Go get the pitcher.

    Don't overdraft the pitcher just for the sake of it. But that position player better be a can't miss type stud.

  8. #22
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Gil Meche = $55 million.
    As Doug said, guys like Meche get paid so much because pitching is so hard to develop. If you always reach a bit for the pitcher, you are devaluing your draft.

    Position players may not get paid as much as pitchers on a yearly basis (assuming equal talents), but the hitters have a better chance of developing. That's how the market is dictated. Everything evens out. You get what you pay for.

    That's why you have to take the best player available. The pitcher may ultimately be worth more than a hitter assuming both develop fully, but that hitter is going to have a much greater chance of developing and you can gain the same amount of total worth through more players developing. If you constantly reach for pitching, you will end up with a smaller total worth than if you take the best player available.

    And I totally understand what you are saying. Pitching is vastly important to develop, but on the same token, it's not worth reaching for the pitcher if there is a position player that is clearly better.
    Last edited by Patrick Bateman; 04-09-2007 at 06:11 PM.

  9. #23
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    As Doug said, guys like Meche get paid so much because pitching is so hard to develop. If you always reach a bit for the pitcher, you are devaluing your draft.

    Position players may not get paid as much as pitchers on a yearly basis (assuming equal talents), but the hitters have a better chance of developing. That's how the market is dictated. Everything evens out. You get what you pay for.

    That's why you have to take the best player available. The pitcher may ultimately be worth more than a hitter assuming both develop fully, but that hitter is going to have a much greater chance of developing and you can gain the same amount of total worth through more players developing. If you constantly reach for pitching, you will end up with a smaller total worth than if you take the best player available.

    And I totally understand when you are saying. Pitching is vastly important to develop, but on the same token, it's not worth reaching for the pitcher if there is a position player that is clearly better.
    Is there actual proof or stat analysis to say that hitters taken early in the draft have a better chance of working out than pitchers in the early rounds? There are plenty of Chad Mottolas to go head-to-head with the Chris Grulers of the world.

  10. #24
    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    I agree the numbers will equal out, one thing that is certain MPHs on a fastball. Give me a draft of 4 guys who throw over 97 mph and I consider it a good draft everyday of the week.

  11. #25
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Is there actual proof or stat analysis to say that hitters taken early in the draft have a better chance of working out than pitchers in the early rounds? There are plenty of Chad Mottolas to go head-to-head with the Chris Grulers of the world.
    Yes there is. There is plenty of it. Its not even really close. *While the difference is about 3-5% in how often they reach the majors, hitters are 4 times more likely to be productive players than pitchers in the majors. Pitchers are about a 5% chance to be productive major leaguers, hitters are an 18% chance to be productive major leaguers.*
    *only for rounds 1-5*

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3 View Post
    Youre right Doug but this is a special situation where until the Reds can be like the White Sox and Tigers and consistently bring up stud after stud to their pitching staff I've gotta keep drafting boat loads of pitching and hope I can find a diamond in the mud with our lower draft picks as far position players. IMO 3 out of 4 picks should be pitchers every year until you reach round 10. Just my thoughts.
    Why reach for a guy who you think has less of a chance of making it simply because he pitches? It doesn't make sense developmentally or financially. With the time and money spent on these kids you must take the guy you think has the best chance to pan out, regardless of where he plays. When such a small percentage of players even make it to the majors and contribute, you cant go into a draft and not take the best guy available.

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Gil Meche = $55 million.

    The Reds are pretty much out of the FA pitching market until further notice. So unless they pull some more Harang and Arroyo-like miracles, the team will be devoid of good pitching unless they draft the hell out of it.

    If there was an OFer and SP on the board, with the OFer rated a little higher than the college SP, would you want the OFer? I can't agree with that logic. The Reds are ok in the OF for the time being (OF os Stubbs, Bruce and Dunn within 3 years hopefully). Go get the pitcher.

    Don't overdraft the pitcher just for the sake of it. But that position player better be a can't miss type stud.
    That is why the Reds need to target guys like Harang and Arroyo in trades and continue down the path of developing pitchers. Hard to believe I know, but the Reds have some real good arms in their system right now and while its a sure thing they wont all pan out, they have a lot more guys now who have the stuff to pan out if things go right.
    As for your question, yes I take the outfielder every time. Reasons? 1, if he is rated higher by my scouts, then they think he has a better chance to succeed. 2, hitters are much safer picks historically. 3, my scouts think he is the better player.
    If you think the Reds OF is fine for 3 years with Dunn, Bruce and Stubbs.... then I have to say the one with the best chance of being in the Reds outfield in 3 years is Jay Bruce. I dont think the Reds sign Dunn again. Someone will be offering him 14 million a year, for 5 or 6 years. If the Reds were to sign him to that type of contract, they would be stupid. The Reds have count them, 1 , legit outfield prospect in Jay Bruce. While I surely haven't given up on Stubbs and I hope for the best, he still has to show that he can hit. So the Reds outfield in 3 years looks pretty bare right now if you ask me.

  12. #26
    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Why reach for a guy who you think has less of a chance of making it simply because he pitches? It doesn't make sense developmentally or financially. With the time and money spent on these kids you must take the guy you think has the best chance to pan out, regardless of where he plays. When such a small percentage of players even make it to the majors and contribute, you cant go into a draft and not take the best guy available.
    We will just have to disagree, to me it's such a crap shoot with injuries and all, I feel that your main focus must be the one thing you must have in order to have any chance to win and thats pitching. So to me it isnt a reach at all because the the way everybody rates guys that are high in the draft, youre drafting good players whether theyre pitchers or position players. I just put a ton of value on pitching, thats just me Doug, I do get where your coming from though.

  13. #27
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Icehole, we can agree to disagree.

  14. #28
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes there is. There is plenty of it. Its not even really close. *While the difference is about 3-5% in how often they reach the majors, hitters are 4 times more likely to be productive players than pitchers in the majors. Pitchers are about a 5% chance to be productive major leaguers, hitters are an 18% chance to be productive major leaguers.*
    *only for rounds 1-5*



    Why reach for a guy who you think has less of a chance of making it simply because he pitches? It doesn't make sense developmentally or financially. With the time and money spent on these kids you must take the guy you think has the best chance to pan out, regardless of where he plays. When such a small percentage of players even make it to the majors and contribute, you cant go into a draft and not take the best guy available.



    That is why the Reds need to target guys like Harang and Arroyo in trades and continue down the path of developing pitchers. Hard to believe I know, but the Reds have some real good arms in their system right now and while its a sure thing they wont all pan out, they have a lot more guys now who have the stuff to pan out if things go right.
    As for your question, yes I take the outfielder every time. Reasons? 1, if he is rated higher by my scouts, then they think he has a better chance to succeed. 2, hitters are much safer picks historically. 3, my scouts think he is the better player.
    If you think the Reds OF is fine for 3 years with Dunn, Bruce and Stubbs.... then I have to say the one with the best chance of being in the Reds outfield in 3 years is Jay Bruce. I dont think the Reds sign Dunn again. Someone will be offering him 14 million a year, for 5 or 6 years. If the Reds were to sign him to that type of contract, they would be stupid. The Reds have count them, 1 , legit outfield prospect in Jay Bruce. While I surely haven't given up on Stubbs and I hope for the best, he still has to show that he can hit. So the Reds outfield in 3 years looks pretty bare right now if you ask me.
    After doing this analysis, I just want to Reds to use 2 of their top 3 picks on college pitchers.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=53527

  15. #29
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    After doing this analysis, I just want to Reds to use 2 of their top 3 picks on college pitchers.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=53527
    I am still in the camp of taking the best guy available.

    If we take each teams top 5 hitters and top 5 pitchers right now at this point, then look back in 5 years, I guarantee you that a lot more hitters are producing in the majors than those pitchers are. The reason most of those guys in teams top 10s came from the first few rounds is very simple.... usually the best players are drafted in the first few rounds. I bet most of the guys in the teams top 10s that are hitters were also drafted the exact same way.

  16. #30
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Reds approach to this years draft

    The other thing to remember -- going back to the approach to the 2007 draft specifically -- is that we're picking #15. The no-brainers will be off the board, so we'll be able to poke holes in the selection of whoever it is, if we're so inclined.

    Otherwise, I agree with jmcclain -- this isn't the NFL, baseball teams shouldn't draft based on current-day needs. As for the other question, I would take a pitcher over a position player if I had them rated equally but would not pass up a position player if he was clearly tops on my board.
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