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Thread: Time for Introductions...

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  1. #1
    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    Time for Introductions...

    Jerry Narron, I'd like to introduce you to your starting rotation:

    These guys are Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo...they are your aces...they are more than capable of even taking the ball every 4th day and are tough guys...they can handle extra innings and can take you deep into games...but Jerry, there aren't any other aces here so you might want to be careful using them needlessly with extra pitches and innings as a long season awaits...

    Jerry, these 2 guys are Kyle Lohse and Matt Belisle...both are guys with tons of potential and they are pitching well right now...your patience will be great with both of them because they'll go through some struggles but both could have big years...but beware, because especially in Belisle's case, when they fatigue, they get tired fast...

    And Jerry, this is Eric Milton...he's your 5th starter...Jerry, you've got a real good guy for this spot...he's very, very good the 1st time through the order and is extremely solid the 2nd time through...for a 5th starter he can consistently be counted on to give you a man's effort for 5 innings...but Jerry, here's the important part: NEVER, EVER NO MATTER WHAT YOUR HEART SAYS, NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK DO YOU LET ERIC MILTON COME OUT OF THE DUGOUT FOR THE 6TH INNING UNLESS YOU HAVE AN ENORMOUS LEAD AND HAVE YOUR BULLPEN WARMING UP...

    I know I'm on the other side of the coin from most, but Eric Milton is just fine for this spot in the rotation...don't tell me about Ramirez or Livingston because at this point I simply don't believe they are significant upgrades for our rotation...Milton is who he is, contract be damned...a very solid 5 inning pitcher who did a more than adequate job yesterday in that stint (5 innings, 8 hits of which 3 were dinks, 3 ER, 1 HR)...every Reds fan in North America knew Milton couldn't get out of the 6th inning unscathed yet Narron leaves him in...

    Eric Milton isn't the key to our season...he's just another guy in the 5-hole that is simply average at best...just like virtually every other ML team (including the Yankees, for instance...man do they have rotation issues!!)...the key to our season is Kyle Lohse and Matt Belisle...if they are solid, we compete for the division title...if they don't, we wait on the late-season arrival of Bailey and get excited about next season...

    Frustration yesterday should've been due to poor AB's from the top of the lineup...Freel and Phillips need to take guys a little deeper into counts to best utilize their talents IMHO...but I'm not about to "fire" them...frustration should've been getting back into the game and watching our bullpen be unable to hold it close (once again, not about to "fire" Coffey and Coutlangus, though I am convinced never to have Coffey start an inning but rather to always come in with runners on...I always am more confident when he has to put out someone else's fire, maybe I'm wrong)...frustration should've occured when Narron allows Milton to face Sanchez with 2 outs in the 6th, when Sanchez owns some ridiculous .600+average against the man...

    But I'm not about to get frustrated about having Eric Milton give us a solid 5 innings of work...I'm not frustrated about his salary because we can do nothing about it, and from all accounts Milton works hard and is a professional...I'm not going to be frustrated because he's the biggest flyball pitcher in the majors because he was that when DO signed him...personally, I was quite satisfied with Eric Milton yesterday and if he does this all season long for 25 starts, we'll be just fine every 5th day...


    I'm not comparing the 2 for the course of the season, but in the same conditions facing the same lineups...

    Harang 5.2 IP, 5 ER
    Milton 6 IP, 4 ER

    Clearly this performance yesterday is nothing to be frustrated about IMHO...

    We have gone all A-Rod on this guy because of the contract and expectations...I've lowered my expectations to viewing him as a solid 5 inning #5 starter...he can meet those expectations nicely...

    I now expose myself to unmerciful angst and rebuttal


    You cannot defeat an ignorant man in an argument!
    -William Gibbs McAdoo

    Though many of us here are sure trying

  2. #2
    You know his story Redsland's Avatar
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    Re: Time for Introductions...

    Quote Originally Posted by coachw513 View Post
    And Jerry, this is Eric Milton...he's your 5th starter...Jerry, you've got a real good guy for this spot...he's very, very good the 1st time through the order and is extremely solid the 2nd time through...for a 5th starter he can consistently be counted on to give you a man's effort for 5 innings...
    Three-year splits follow.

    Milton's OPS against in the first inning: .819
    In innings 4-6: .877

    Milton's OPS against in pitches 1-15: .820
    Pitches 16-30: .902

    Milton does not start out great and then falter. He's a constant, rolling disaster who eventually ends up as a catastrophe. He's not Tropical Depression Erica. He's Category 3 Hurricane Erica, and he's heading toward land.
    Makes all the routine posts.

  3. #3
    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    Re: Time for Introductions...

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsland View Post
    Three-year splits follow.

    Milton's OPS against in the first inning: .819
    In innings 4-6: .877

    Milton's OPS against in pitches 1-15: .820
    Pitches 16-30: .902

    Milton does not start out great and then falter. He's a constant, rolling disaster who eventually ends up as a catastrophe. He's not Tropical Depression Erica. He's Category 3 Hurricane Erica, and he's heading toward land.
    If I may ask what those splits were last year when I felt he was a much better pitcher than the year before???...

    But I understand your perspective...


    You cannot defeat an ignorant man in an argument!
    -William Gibbs McAdoo

    Though many of us here are sure trying

  4. #4
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Time for Introductions...

    Quote Originally Posted by coachw513 View Post
    If I may ask what those splits were last year when I felt he was a much better pitcher than the year before???...

    But I understand your perspective...
    From 2006:

    OPS against in the 1st inning: .901
    In Innings 4-6: .827

    OPS against pitches 1-15: .903
    Pitches 16-30: .840
    Pitches 91-105: 1.156

    Pitches 46-60: a low .590

  5. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Time for Introductions...

    Remember, pitches 1-15 are almost certainly against the teams top 3 or 4 hitters so they're bound to be higher. That's also why you see, on average, more runs scored in the first. The lineup is set up to take advantage of this certainty of opportunity.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #6
    You know his story Redsland's Avatar
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    Re: Time for Introductions...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Remember, pitches 1-15 are almost certainly against the teams top 3 or 4 hitters so they're bound to be higher.
    Makes sense.

    So why do Milton's three-year splits show that he gets worse during pitches 16-30?

    (He said rhetorically.)
    Makes all the routine posts.

  7. #7
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Time for Introductions...

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsland View Post
    Makes sense.

    So why do Milton's three-year splits show that he gets worse during pitches 16-30?

    (He said rhetorically.)
    Because everyone is basically a top 4 hitter when facing Milton?


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