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Thread: Pitching Depth II

  1. #16
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    Updated for the recent movement. Looks like Mike Bumatay, Wes Wikerson and Luke Lockwood are gone and Bo Lanier has been put on the restricted list. Some names I can not find from last year include Jeremy Burchett who had an ERA of 2.25 in 40 combined IP for the GCL Reds and Billings last year at age 22. Not sure on specific roles in all cases, but the names are on the right teams and I'm sure it will change as trading season moves on and more guys sign.

    Code:
    Spot #	Majors     	AAA        	AA         	A+      	A-             	Billings	GCL
    1	Aaron Harang	Bob Livingston*	James Avery	Sean Watson	Rafael Gonzalez	E. Del Rosario	Jamie Arneson*
    2	Bronson Arroyo	Tom Shearn	Johnny Cueto	Travis Wood*	Travis Webb*	Josh Ravin	Tzu Chiu*
    3	Kyle Lohse	Phil Dumatrait*	Camilo Vazquez*	Logan Ondrusek	D. Guerrero	Dan Donaldson*	Brandon Rice
    4	Matt Belisle	Eliz. Ramirez	Carlos Fisher	B. Jukich*	Jordan Smith	Andrew Bowman*	Robert Nickols*
    5	Homer Bailey	Richie Gardner	Sam Lecure	Daryl Thompson	A. Gressick	Har Honeycutt	Ricky Rhodes
    						                                        Anthony Romero	Efrain Rodriguez
    
    Pen Spot
    1	David Weathers	Gary Majewski	Tyler Pelland*	Jose Rojas	R. Geronimo	P Valiquette*	Tom Fiebig
    2	Mike Gosling*	Jason Kershner*	Josh Roenicke	R. Medina	Lee Tabor*	Scott Gafney	Aguido Gonzalez*
    3	Brad Salmon	B. Shackelford*	Carlos Guevara	Robert Manuel	Misael Dejesus	Ray Jeffords	Jordan Hotchkiss
    4	Marcus McBeth	Ricky Stone	Justin Mallett	Derrik Lutz	Ma.Mateo	Matthew Klinker	Jose Medina
    5	Jon Coutlangus*	Kirk  Saarloos	Brock Till	Dushan Ruzic	Pedro Viola*	Joseph Krebs*	Victor Navarro
    6	Victor Santos	Calvin Medlock	R. Asadoorian	C. Bohorquez	Terrell Young	Luis Montano	Steve Otterness*
    7	Todd Coffey	J. Manon	Ramon Ramirez	Jeremy Horst*	Kevin Gunter	Adam Pointer	Curtis Partch
    8						                                        Tyler Rhoden	Miguel Perez
    9						                                        Dan Zeffro	Charles Snowden*
    10						                                        Nick Wandless	Jeremy Vinyard
    							                                                Juan Rafael
    							                                                Jose Marizan
    
    DL
    1	Jared Burton	Steve Kelly		         T. Pauly			                Leonardo Astorga
    2	Eric Milton*			                 Bo Lanier			                James Morris*
    3	E. Guardado*
    4	Bill Bray*
    5	Mike Stanton*
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #17
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    What do you think are the odds of any of our AAA starting pitchers taking the spots of Belisle and Lohse in our rotation?

  4. #18
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    What do you think are the odds of any of our AAA starting pitchers taking the spots of Belisle and Lohse in our rotation?
    I'm not optimistic about Livingston, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to find out about him in a starter spot if Lohse is dealt.

    Shearn is a career minor leaguer who adds reliabilty to a minor league team but has no serious shot at the majors IMO.

    I think Ramirez is a guy who can fill the number 5 spot or be a swing man who is ok as long as he's dirt cheap. He's been out and needs innings and to re-establish himself in AAA before running him out there IMO.

    I think Gardner could get a look at the end of the year. Given how pitchers who successfully come back from major arm injuries usually regain their stuff in the second year after a comeback, I'm hopeful that Gardner can make a step forward in 2008. His comeback has been amazing IMO, but he's jumped several levels already and (this opinion is admittedly w/o intimate knowledge of his current stuff/situation) it seems that he should stay at AAA and get some success at a high level under his belt.

    Dumatrait is not a guy I'm overly optimistic about, but he'd get the first shot. I'm not completely sure, but I think that 2007 was his last option year and he'll have to stick in 2008. I think finding out about him in the second half should be on the to do list.

    As for Belsile and Lohse, I think they should both stay in the rotation. Despite Belisle's game last night, IMO he's the best of this group and would be a fine 5th starter in 2008 at his probable low (< $500K) salary. Lohse needs to be traded ASAP but IMO should stay in the rotation until it happens. I think a demotion would hurt the return.

    I think the bottom 2 spots in the rotation have a sufficient number of cheap in-house candidates for 2008 with Bailey, Belisle, Ramirez, Gardner, Dumatrait, and maybe Livingston along with the probable additions of Fisher, Cueto and Lecure at some point in 2008. If the Reds add to the rotation from outside the organization (IMO they should) it should be for some one who is of number 2 or 3 caliber who is a clear upgrade from this group's level.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #19
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'm not optimistic about Livingston, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to find out about him in a starter spot if Lohse is dealt.


    As for Belsile and Lohse, I think they should both stay in the rotation. Despite Belisle's game last night, IMO he's the best of this group and would be a fine 5th starter in 2008 at his probable low (< $500K) salary. Lohse needs to be traded ASAP but IMO should stay in the rotation until it happens. I think a demotion would hurt the return.

    I think the bottom 2 spots in the rotation have a sufficient number of cheap in-house candidates for 2008 with Bailey, Belisle, Ramirez, Gardner, Dumatrait, and maybe Livingston along with the probable additions of Fisher, Cueto and Lecure at some point in 2008. If the Reds add to the rotation from outside the organization (IMO they should) it should be for some one who is of number 2 or 3 caliber who is a clear upgrade from this group's level.
    We disagree on Matt Belisle. I don't mind him in the Victor Santos spot in the bullpen as a long man who can work two or three innings when necessary. In fact, a starting pitcher like Belisle is a good candidate for such a spot.

    While he is a RedsZone favorite, I would not keep him in the rotation. Doesn't matter whether you call it No. 5 spot or whatever. If you look at his last year at AAA, as a starter, he started ok then gradually put up poor numbers. I don't think his stuff fools people over extended innings.

    I don't like making predictions, and hope I am wrong, but I don't expect Belisle's ERA to be below 5 at season's end. (Hope I am very wrong.) And with a team like the Reds, who play so many games in a hitters park, they need plus starters, guys who "miss bats."

    Belisle has helped himself by cutting way down on walks. I'm not saying he needs to be released. But he just gives up too many hits, too many well hit balls to be an effective starter over 180 innings or so.

  6. #20
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    Belisle also struggles badly in the 1st inning. Maybe he should be just released at some point eh?

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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    mth, I enjoy reading these organized charts you have made of the Reds minor league pitching. Any chance this could be updated now with all the movement?
    "In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
    -Walt Whitman

  8. #22
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Freak View Post
    mth, I enjoy reading these organized charts you have made of the Reds minor league pitching. Any chance this could be updated now with all the movement?
    Thanks. I was working on it this morning but I have had a problem with time lately. I'll have an update this weekend.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #23
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    This is how it looks tonight. Things are changing quickly and this will probably be out of date soon. 14 Pitchers at Sarasota including Kerchner and Kelly suggest more changes are in the works IMO.

    Code:
    Spot #	Majors     	AAA        	AA         	A+      	A-	        Billings	GCL	        VSL/DSL
    1	Aaron Harang	Johnny Cueto	Carlos Fisher	Sean Watson	Jamie Arneson*	E. Del Rosario	Tzu Chiu*	Renny Amador*
    2	Bronson Arroyo	Tom Shearn	Matt Maloney*	A. Gressick	Travis Webb*	Josh Ravin	Brandon Rice	Wil Bocaranda*
    3	Matt Belisle	Eliz. Ramirez	Sam Lecure	Logan Ondrusek	D. Guerrero	Andrew Bowman*	Robert Nickols*	Hugo Calderon
    4	Bob Livingston*	Kirk  Saarloos	Ramon Ramirez	B. Jukich*	Jordan Smith	Har Honeycutt	Ricky Rhodes	Yoel Contraras*
    5	Phil Dumatrait*	Richie Gardner	James Avery	Daryl Thompson	Alex Smit*	Anthony Romero	Ef Rodriguez	Jose Figueroa
    6						                                        Scott Carroll	Kyle Lotzkar*	Fernando Gonzalez
    7								                                                        Alex Hernandez
    8								                                                        Dan Martinez*
    9								                                                        Juan Palencia
    
    Pen Spot
    1	David Weathers	Gary Majewski	Pedro Viola*	Jose Rojas	R. Geronimo	P Valiquette*	Tom Fiebig	Reinaldo Albino
    2	Mike Gosling*	Bill Bray*	Josh Roenicke	R. Medina	Misael Dejesus	Scott Gafney	Aguido Gonzalez*Ramon Almonte
    3	Jared Burton	Brock Till	Carlos Guevara	Robert Manuel	Ma.Mateo	Ray Jeffords	Jordan HotchkissJuan Aquino
    4	Mike Stanton*	Ricky Stone	Justin Mallett	Derrik Lutz	Dan Donaldson*	Matthew Klinker	Jose Medina	Raffy Ceballos
    5	Jon Coutlangus*	Brad Salmon	R. Asadoorian	Jason Kershner*	Terrell Young	Joseph Krebs*	Victor Navarro	Raffy De La Rosa*
    6	Victor Santos	Tyler Pelland*	Dushan Ruzic	Lee Tabor*	Kevin Gunter	Luis Montano	Steve Otterness*Fran Duarte
    7	Todd Coffey	Marcus McBeth	C. Bohorquez	Dan Denham	                Adam Pointer	Josh Beal	Ivan Gomera*
    8				                        Steve Kelly		        Tyler Rhoden	Charles Snowden*Ezequiel Infante
    9				                        Juan Rafael		        Dan Zeffro	Jeremy Vinyard	Luis Machuca
    10						                                        Nick Wandless	Jose Marizan	Junior Martinez
    11						                                        Jeremy Horst*	Jon Conatser	Elvin Mercedes
    12						                                        Curtis Partch		        Ramon Rodriguez
    13								                                                        Jesus Ruiz
    14								                                                        Hector Santana
    15								                                                        Elvin Silvestre
    
    DL
    1	Eric Milton*	Homer Bailey	Camilo Vazquez*	Travis Wood*	Rafael Gonzalez		         Leonardo Astorga
    2	E. Guardado*			                Bo Lanier			                 James Morris*
    3				                        T. Pauly
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #24
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    It scares me that Belisle is our no.3; he really is an ideal no.5 starter.

  11. #25
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    It scares me that Belisle is our no.3; he really is an ideal no.5 starter.
    People can talk about the bullpen all they want, but If I were making investment decisions for 2008 and beyond, I'd put all my free resources into a number 1 or 2 starter pushing Arroyo to number 3 and I'd sift through the cheap options for 4 and 5 and to fill out the bullpen. Its likely that one of the young hard throwers will emerge as a decent pen option at some point.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #26
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    People can talk about the bullpen all they want, but If I were making investment decisions for 2008 and beyond, I'd put all my free resources into a number 1 or 2 starter pushing Arroyo to number 3 and I'd sift through the cheap options for 4 and 5 and to fill out the bullpen. Its likely that one of the young hard throwers will emerge as a decent pen option at some point.
    Any organization would love to pickup a #1 or 2. That's very tough and sometimes very risky. OB tried it w/ Milton and it cost us over $20mill. You kind of have to luck into one of those.

  13. #27
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    People can talk about the bullpen all they want, but If I were making investment decisions for 2008 and beyond, I'd put all my free resources into a number 1 or 2 starter pushing Arroyo to number 3 and I'd sift through the cheap options for 4 and 5 and to fill out the bullpen. Its likely that one of the young hard throwers will emerge as a decent pen option at some point.
    The other problem is outside of Zambrano, there really isn't a legit #1 or 2 free agent to sign this year.

    I think teams approach Free agents the wrong way, I'd spend more money over 2 years, than stretching the contract over 6 or 7 years.
    If you say signed Zambrano for $50 mill over 2 years, he'd be 29 coming off a the Reds contract and ready to sign a 6 or 7 year contract at that time. Plus he'd be roughly 8-10 mill ahead of where he would have been had signed a long term contract.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski

  14. #28
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Any organization would love to pickup a #1 or 2. That's very tough and sometimes very risky. OB tried it w/ Milton and it cost us over $20mill. You kind of have to luck into one of those.
    Except Milton was not a number 1 or 2. He was a shaky number 4. That is exactly what I'm talking about. Spend big on impact improvement or just keep your money. Milton was a keep your money deal. As was Stanton, Lohse, Cormier, Conine and in hindsight so were Freel and Gonzalez (but I can see why they were signed at the time).

    I'd go after Zambrano real hard and if he can't be had, I'd sift through the young guys and look to make a trade where the team takes on some one else's contract that is looking to move it. If no trades for true improvement are out there, then I'd keep my money. Don't overpay for junk that can be had for the minimum. Gladly overpay (within reason) for impact guys if that is what it takes. I gladly pay $17 or $18 Million per year for Zambrano as opposed to spreading it around on a mid-level starter with a lot of warts and two or three more versions of Stanton and Cormier.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #29
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Except Milton was not a number 1 or 2. He was a shaky number 4. That is exactly what I'm talking about. Spend big on impact improvement or just keep your money. Milton was a keep your money deal. As was Stanton, Lohse, Cormier, Conine and in hindsight so were Freel and Gonzalez (but I can see why they were signed at the time).

    I'd go after Zambrano real hard and if he can't be had, I'd sift through the young guys and look to make a trade where the team takes on some one else's contract that is looking to move it. If no trades for true improvement are out there, then I'd keep my money. Don't overpay for junk that can be had for the minimum. Gladly overpay (within reason) for impact guys if that is what it takes. I gladly pay $17 or $18 Million per year for Zambrano as opposed to spreading it around on a mid-level starter with a lot of warts and two or three more versions of Stanton and Cormier.

    I'd be surprised if Zambrano hits the market but it'll be interesting if he does.

    I don't think Milton was signed as a #4. I really think he was supposed to be a #1 or a #2 on that team which did not have Arroyo or today's Harang.

  16. #30
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pitching Depth II

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I'd be surprised if Zambrano hits the market but it'll be interesting if he does.

    I don't think Milton was signed as a #4. I really think he was supposed to be a #1 or a #2 on that team which did not have Arroyo or today's Harang.
    I agree that the Reds signed him as a number 1. But he was a number 4 caliber at best when he was signed. Signing an expensive starter for the top of the rotation was the right idea. The Reds tried to go cheap and ended up throwing money at the wrong guy. Same thing has happened this year when the choices were Lohse, Cormier, Stanton etc. The team needs a true impact guy and Zambrano at $17 or so Million per year is not a waste of money. Lohse at $4.2 Million per year was. It doesn't make sense to spend any money more than the minimum if the need isn't being filled.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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