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Thread: Kyle Lohse

  1. #91
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Lets see what Lohse considers a reasonable extension. We could always use a good quality starter.

    If he's still pitching well at the trade deadline, I wouldn't be against keeping him at a reasonable cost.

    There's a significant chance, however, that he'd be having a career year. If some team would overpay in quality AA -AAA prospects it would probably be the soundest approach for a small market team interested in long term success - get one or two guys who could have 5+ low cost, high production, years and preserve your resources for an occassional key FA.

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  3. #92
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by Stingray View Post
    If he's still pitching well at the trade deadline, I wouldn't be against keeping him at a reasonable cost.

    There's a significant chance, however, that he'd be having a career year. If some team would overpay in quality AA -AAA prospects it would probably be the soundest approach for a small market team interested in long term success - get one or two guys who could have 5+ low cost, high production, years and preserve your resources for an occassional key FA.

    I agree but we'll probably be hovering at .500 and within 5 games of the leader(s) so we won't do it.

    I'd love to see what the yankees would be willing to part with for him and some of our bullpen parts though.

  4. #93
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    I guess you have to really look hard at Lohse at that time. He's always had the stuff, there's no question about that. Scouts have always said that he had the potential. Has Dick Pole brought that out in him, or is this all just a fluke? If it's a fluke, and you can see that, then deal him, but if the Lohse we're seeing right now is the pitcher that he has become, the Reds may have the beginnings of the best starting pitching staff in baseball.
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

  5. #94
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    I guess you have to really look hard at Lohse at that time. He's always had the stuff, there's no question about that. Scouts have always said that he had the potential. Has Dick Pole brought that out in him, or is this all just a fluke? If it's a fluke, and you can see that, then deal him, but if the Lohse we're seeing right now is the pitcher that he has become, the Reds may have the beginnings of the best starting pitching staff in baseball.
    Based on what Lohse has done so far with the Reds it doesn't appear that he has been a fluke.

    His turnaround started last season, and he's continued building on it this season.

    In 97 innings as a Red, Lohse has a K:BB ratio of 3.35 and HR/9 is 0.93. Remember, he has also doen this in a homerun park, so he has really been even better than that. 97 innings is still a rather small sample size, but it is worth considering when he has showed such a sharp turnaround.

    His accomplishments so far have not been a factor of good fortune, but instead have been due to very impressive pitching. Thus, there is no reason to think that he shouldn't be able to continue contributing as an above average starting pitcher, even if it isn't quite up to par with his current success.

  6. #95
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    Based on what Lohse has done so far with the Reds it doesn't appear that he has been a fluke.
    So, is that picture below your name a recent picture of you?

  7. #96
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    Based on what Lohse has done so far with the Reds it doesn't appear that he has been a fluke.

    His turnaround started last season, and he's continued building on it this season.

    In 97 innings as a Red, Lohse has a K:BB ratio of 3.35 and HR/9 is 0.93. Remember, he has also doen this in a homerun park, so he has really been even better than that. 97 innings is still a rather small sample size, but it is worth considering when he has showed such a sharp turnaround.

    His accomplishments so far have not been a factor of good fortune, but instead have been due to very impressive pitching. Thus, there is no reason to think that he shouldn't be able to continue contributing as an above average starting pitcher, even if it isn't quite up to par with his current success.

    I agree with your assessment but, extending Loshe(or any player), you have to consider cost/risk/benefit vs alternatives.

    With Loshe:

    1. Cost: If he's still pitching like he has so far he'll be offered $10+/year by some large market team.

    2. Risk: - career year , injury

    3. Benefit: - A #1 or #2 Starter

    Alternative - 2 or 3 high ceiling prospects from A+ to AAA(at the trade deadline)

    If you consider the chance that one of those prospects reaching his ceiling is as good as Loshe continuing to pitch at a high level for several years, I'd go with the prospects because you'll have control of that prospect at a low cost and can apply the savings to another FA, improved scouting, trade, or other ways that can improve your club..

    Whereas if Loshe slips w/i a year or 2 your small market team is hamstrung throughout the lenght of his contract - see Eric Milton, Ken Griffey Jr.

  8. #97
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    So, is that picture below your name a recent picture of you?
    It's actually a picture of you waking up in the morning after a long night on the town.

  9. #98
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by Stingray View Post
    I agree with your assessment but, extending Loshe(or any player), you have to consider cost/risk/benefit vs alternatives.

    With Loshe:

    1. Cost: If he's still pitching like he has so far he'll be offered $10+/year by some large market team.

    2. Risk: - career year , injury

    3. Benefit: - A #1 or #2 Starter

    Alternative - 2 or 3 high ceiling prospects from A+ to AAA(at the trade deadline)

    If you consider the chance that one of those prospects reaching his ceiling is as good as Loshe continuing to pitch at a high level for several years, I'd go with the prospects because you'll have control of that prospect at a low cost and can apply the savings to another FA, improved scouting, trade, or other ways that can improve your club..

    Whereas if Loshe slips w/i a year or 2 your small market team is hamstrung throughout the lenght of his contract - see Eric Milton, Ken Griffey Jr.
    My post was only in regards to this season's outlook.

    IMO, Lohse is a poor bet for a long term deal since this would be his first above average season (assuming it does continue). He may have suddenly figured it out, but I think his impending free agency also factors in quite a bit.

    If he does have a big season he is going to be due about 10M as you said, and generally guys with Lohse's track record are not good bets in the long run.

    I have been one of his biggest supporters mainly because I like the idea of getting a potential above avergage starter for basically nothing even if it was only a 1 year thing.

    If the Reds are out of it come the deadline, I would not hesitate to move him for the best deal available and would prefer not to show him the money especially with the Reds' budget constraints. Assuming the Reds are still in contention, I would be more than satisfied to ride him for the duration and let him walk via free agency. Arbitration is also a possibility because if he has a great year, he's pretty likely to decline when 4 year offers in the 35-40M range are going to be offered. That would allow us to net some decent draft picks for him. even if he accpeted he would have trade value on a 1 year deal.

    But basically I see this as his last season in a Reds uniform.

  10. #99
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Arroyo and Harang both have only had 1 above-average year. Why is it different for them? I do hope your wrong and we can sign him to a long-term deal. We should try and give him the money we pay Milton when his deal expires.

  11. #100
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    Bailey, Votto and Bruce have proven nothing at the ML level and he odds are that only one of the three will become a solid major league player. The odds that one of them will become a 'superstar' are minscule. If you think all three will be 'stars', go to Vegas and bet all of your money on '00', your odds are better there.
    John Sickels, author of Baseball Prospect Book, disagrees with you. He uses a grading system for prospects, combining statistics with scouting reports. He grades Bailey as an A and says, "one of the top three pitching prospects in baseball." He gives Bruce an A- and states, "strong tools with developing skills." As for Votto, he grades him as a B+ and says, "breakthrough looks real to me."

    When commenting on the Reds overall farm system, Sickels writes, "this system has two future stars in Bailey and Bruce, two very good prospects in Votto and Cueto, then a bunch of question marks and spare parts." Seems to me that having all 3 of them turn out to be stars isn't as preposterous as you make it out to be.

    As for the actual thread, I'm a big Lohse fan and got into many a nasty debate with friends before this season started. Personally, I really don't see why he can't be this year's Bronson Arroyo. If the Reds are out of it come trade dealine, unload him to the highest bidder and upgrade the farm. But if we're still in it (and I firmly believe we will be), you gotta keep someone with that much talent on the roster. I would welcome a long term contract much the same as Krivsky gave BA.

  12. #101
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    John Sickels, author of Baseball Prospect Book, disagrees with you. He uses a grading system for prospects, combining statistics with scouting reports. He grades Bailey as an A and says, "one of the top three pitching prospects in baseball." He gives Bruce an A- and states, "strong tools with developing skills." As for Votto, he grades him as a B+ and says, "breakthrough looks real to me."

    When commenting on the Reds overall farm system, Sickels writes, "this system has two future stars in Bailey and Bruce, two very good prospects in Votto and Cueto, then a bunch of question marks and spare parts." Seems to me that having all 3 of them turn out to be stars isn't as preposterous as you make it out to be.

    As for the actual thread, I'm a big Lohse fan and got into many a nasty debate with friends before this season started. Personally, I really don't see why he can't be this year's Bronson Arroyo. If the Reds are out of it come trade dealine, unload him to the highest bidder and upgrade the farm. But if we're still in it (and I firmly believe we will be), you gotta keep someone with that much talent on the roster. I would welcome a long term contract much the same as Krivsky gave BA.
    If Loshe is still pitching like a #2+ starter at the deadline, I'd offer him a Harang/Arroyo deal. The trouble is I think he'll want $30M+ over 3 years or more.

  13. #102
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    It's odd, but Belisle and Lohse have very similar stats right now. The key difference being Lohse has given up 3 HR's to Matt's 0 HR's. Both have allowed 12 runs, 11 earned for Lohse, 12 for Belisle. Both have similar K rates right now.

    I'm ok with letting Lohse walk after offering him arb. I'm ok with dealing him at the deadline if the Reds are hopelessly out of it.

    But for the time being, I think I'll enjoy both Lohse and Belisle's efforts. Just because they are so eerily similar right now.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #103
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    I wouldn't give Lohse a contract off a career year. He had some good years in Minnesota but his career can be classified as inconsistent. Signing him long term could be the second coming of the Milton contract. Not that I think he's not coming into his own but at times in his career Lohse has been Milton-bad. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets can afford to eat the cost if he busts, we can't.

  15. #104
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    With Arroyo and Harang at the top...you've got to think Bailey will be considered a viable #3 over the next 3 years. Now with Belisle showing some stuff this year, not to mention what Rameriz showed last season still rehabbing.

    I just don't see the Reds showing even a 6-7 mill per year deal over 4 years to Lohse. Assuming health, we're looking to have plugged in 4 of the 5 spots and you can always go an array of directions with a #5 guy. (Sarloos, Livingston, Ramirez...possibly picking up a feeler in off-season for cheap, etc..). I think we'll need those resources to secure our offense hopefully and let Lohse go with a big thank you for the 1.5 seasons he gave us.

  16. #105
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    Re: Kyle Lohse

    Quote Originally Posted by UK Reds Fan View Post
    With Arroyo and Harang at the top...you've got to think Bailey will be considered a viable #3 over the next 3 years. Now with Belisle showing some stuff this year, not to mention what Rameriz showed last season still rehabbing.

    I just don't see the Reds showing even a 6-7 mill per year deal over 4 years to Lohse. Assuming health, we're looking to have plugged in 4 of the 5 spots and you can always go an array of directions with a #5 guy. (Sarloos, Livingston, Ramirez...possibly picking up a feeler in off-season for cheap, etc..). I think we'll need those resources to secure our offense hopefully and let Lohse go with a big thank you for the 1.5 seasons he gave us.
    Lohse is one of Krivsky guys from Minnesota. He's not going anywhere.


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