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Thread: 2007 Cincinnati Reds Team Statistical Trends

  1. #16
    You know his story Redsland's Avatar
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    Re: 2007 Cincinnati Reds Team Statistical Trends

    If they're behind late, wear your hat inside out. That'll do the trick.
    Makes all the routine posts.

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  3. #17
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    May 2005
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    Re: 2007 Cincinnati Reds Team Statistical Trends

    It's mid May already, and we've got another two weeks of data. Despite losses mounting in early May, the offense actually wasn't bad at all. The pitching, yea well ... we'll get to that in a minute ...
    Code:
    
    Overall Team Totals
    
                R/G    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   OPS+   PA/BB   PA/HR   PA/2B   PA/EBH   PA/GIDP   PA/SO
    
    2005 Reds  5.03  .261  .339  .446  .785   107    10.35   28.47   18.87    11.05    54.49     4.85
    2005 NL    4.45  .262  .330  .414  .744   100    11.83   38.50   20.89    12.73    48.38     5.88 
    
    2006 Reds  4.62  .257  .336  .432  .768    95    10.25   29.01   21.64    12.11    51.61     5.28
    2006 NL    4.76  .265  .334  .427  .761   100    11.67   35.35   20.77    12.19    49.24     5.76
    
    2007 Reds  4.48  .253  .321  .419  .740    96    11.73   31.12   27.73    13.26    49.19     5.59    
    2007 NL    4.40  .257  .329  .400  .729   100    11.24   44.42   20.47    13.08    49.85     5.87
    
    
                R/G    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   OPS+   PA/BB   PA/HR   PA/2B   PA/EBH   PA/GIDP   PA/SO     
    
    2005 Reds  5.03  .261  .339  .446  .785   107    10.35   28.47   18.87    11.05    54.49     4.85
    2006 Reds  4.62  .257  .336  .432  .768    95    10.25   29.01   21.64    12.11    51.61     5.28
    2007 Reds  4.48  .253  .321  .419  .740    96    11.73   31.12   27.73    13.26    49.19     5.59
    
    
    Thru Date   R/G    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   OPS+   PA/BB   PA/HR   PA/2B   PA/EBH   PA/GIDP   PA/SO
    
    04/15/07   3.58  .226  .316  .344  .660    81     8.84   44.20   34.00    18.42    40.18     5.33
    04/30/07   4.36  .246  .319  .393  .712    90    11.00   35.96   28.33    14.61    49.21     5.81
    05/15/07   4.48  .253  .321  .419  .740    96    11.73   31.12   27.73    13.26    49.19     5.59
    
    
    Splits      R/G    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   OPS+   PA/BB   PA/HR   PA/2B   PA/EBH   PA/GIDP   PA/SO
    
    Apr 1-15   3.58  .226  .316  .344  .660   ---     8.84   44.20   34.00    18.42    40.18     5.33   
    Apr 16-30  5.08  .264  .322  .435  .756   ---    14.09   30.81   24.65    12.33    61.63     6.32
    May 1-15   4.67  .263  .324  .459  .783   ---    13.11   25.65   26.82    11.57    49.17     5.27
    While the Reds only averaged 4.67 runs per game (which is 756 runs over a full 162 games so that's not bad), they did OPS .783 from May 1st to May 15th.

    An influx of power was the primary fuel for the Reds' run scoring over the last two weeks as they hit a home run every 25.65 plate appearances, smacked an extra base hit every 11.57 plate appearances, and put up an overall slugging percentage of .459. If the Reds can maintain that type of power output throughout the season, the offense should hold up fairly well.

    The downside is I'd still like to see Reds batters get on base a little bit more than they've done. They put up a .324 on-base percentage during the first two weeks of May, and that was good enough to push their seasonal on-base percentage up to .321. Still, they're getting on base slightly less often than the NL average of .329.

    FWIW, the Reds have scored 179 runs in 40 games so far this season. Over a full 162 games, that projects out to 725 runs.

    Now for the brutal section, the pitching and defense ...
    Code:
    
    Overall Team Totals
    
                    R/G    ERA   dERA   ERA+  HR/9    K/9    BB/9    K/BB    2B/9    DER    BABIP
    
    2005 Reds      5.45   5.15   4.75    86   1.38   6.00    3.09    1.94    2.30   .691    .317
    2005 NL        4.45   4.22   4.27   100   1.02   6.57    3.29    1.99    1.89   .708    .300
    
    2006 Reds      4.94   4.53   4.53   106   1.33   6.56    2.89    2.27    2.05   .699    .310
    2006 NL        4.76   4.49   4.39   100   1.12   6.71    3.39    1.98    1.91   .705    .303
    
    2007 Reds      4.65   4.21   3.72   102   0.71   6.69    2.90    2.30    2.12   .696    .314
    2007 NL        4.40   4.01   4.13   100   0.87   6.58    3.44    1.91    1.89    ---    .293
    
    
                    R/G    ERA   dERA   ERA+  HR/9    K/9    BB/9    K/BB    2B/9    DER    BABIP
    
    2005 Reds      5.45   5.15   4.75    86   1.38   6.00    3.09    1.94    2.30   .691    .317
    2006 Reds      4.94   4.53   4.53   106   1.33   6.56    2.89    2.27    2.05   .699    .310
    2007 Reds      4.65   4.21   3.72   102   0.71   6.69    2.90    2.30    2.12   .696    .314
    
    
    Thru Date       R/G    ERA   dERA   ERA+  HR/9    K/9    BB/9    K/BB    2B/9    DER    BABIP
    
    04/15/07       3.42   3.01   3.45   132   0.75   7.61    2.42    3.14    1.84   .709    .300
    04/30/07       4.36   3.84   3.47   111   0.73   7.03    2.22    3.16    2.30   .700    .308
    05/15/07       4.65   4.21   3.72   102   0.71   6.69    2.90    2.30    2.12   .696    .314
    
    
    Splits          R/G    ERA   dERA   ERA+  HR/9    K/9    BB/9    K/BB    2B/9    DER    BABIP
    
    Apr 1-15       3.42   3.01   3.45   ---   0.75   7.61    2.42    3.14    1.84   .709    .300
    Apr 16-30      5.23   4.62   3.49   ---   0.70   6.50    2.03    3.19    2.74   .693    .315
    May 1-15       5.13   4.84   4.13   ---   0.67   6.11    4.03    1.52    1.81   .688    .323
    I've bolded the very last segment, which split out the games from May 1st to May 15th, and this shows how ugly the pitching altogether became after seemingly very solid pitching throughout the month of April.

    The Reds' DIPS ERA (dERA in the above chart) was more than a half run higher during the first two weeks in May than we saw in all of April. The massive culprit is an absolutely booming walk rate mixed in with a fading strikeout rate. Reds pitchers walked 4.03 batters per nine innings during the first two weeks in May; that's roughly twice as many walks than they allowed throughout April. Strikeout rates are also dropping off the cliff as Reds pitchers' K/9 sunk down to 6.11 over this previous two week stretch.

    Check out their K/BB in May so far, a paltry 1.52. This was a pitching staff that put up K/BB numbers well over 3 in April, and in May they've just fallen apart.

    Fortunately, Reds pitchers have remained stingy with the home run. However, if they start giving up more home runs without correcting their strikeout/walk issues, then it could potentially become even worse. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
    Code:
    
    Starting and Relief Splits
    
                          ERA    dERA    HR/9    K/9    BB/9    K/BB
    
    2005 Starters        5.38    4.93    1.56   6.07    2.95    2.06
    2006 Starters        4.58    4.43    1.31   6.61    2.64    2.50    
    2007 Starters        4.14    3.42    0.58   6.52    2.34    2.78
    
    2005 Relievers       4.75    4.44    1.05   5.87    3.34    1.75
    2006 Relievers       4.44    4.74    1.36   6.44    3.40    1.89
    2007 Relievers       4.39    4.45    1.01   7.09    4.22    1.68
    
    
    Thru Date             ERA    dERA    HR/9    K/9    BB/9    K/BB
    
    04/15/07 Starters    3.54    3.25    1.06   7.66    2.00    3.82
    04/30/07 Starters    3.55    3.19    0.56   6.76    1.80    3.75
    05/15/07 Starters    4.14    3.42    0.58   6.52    2.34    2.78
    
    04/15/07 Relievers   1.72    3.98    0.86   7.47    3.45    2.17
    04/30/07 Relievers   4.57    4.19    1.14   7.71    3.29    2.35
    05/15/07 Relievers   4.39    4.45    1.01   7.09    4.22    1.68
    This is pretty self-explanatory right here. The Reds' bullpen started to collapse in mid April, and the collapse just continued well into May. Once again, the big culprit is walks; Reds relievers are walking 4.22 batters per nine innings. It becomes exceptionally difficult for a bullpen unit to be successful when they're issuing that many free passes.
    Code:
    
    Game Splits
    
                          ERA    dERA    HR/9    K/9    BB/9    K/BB
                          
    2006 Arroyo/Harang   3.83    4.14    1.17   7.13    2.62    2.72
    2007 Arroyo/Harang   3.91    3.55    0.59   7.34    3.26    2.25
    
    2006 Other SP        5.04    4.80    1.42   6.13    3.11    1.97
    2007 Other SP        4.44    3.85    0.79   6.20    2.64    2.35
    As the season progresses, we're starting to see a bit more separation now in the type of quality pitching overall in games started by Harang/Arroyo compared to the rest of the rotation (Harang's nice start last night helped in this too). The 3-4-5 rotation slots pitched very well in April thanks to Kyle Lohse and Matt Belisle, but they've struggled a bit recently. The Reds' DIPS ERA in games started by pitchers in the 3-4-5 slots is still 3.85 though, and if they can keep it under 4 then the rotation should hold up well for the most part.

    Finally, the raw runs scored/allowed totals ...
    • April 2-15 totals: 43 runs scored and 41 runs allowed in 12 games with an actual record of 7-5.
    • April 16-30 totals: 66 runs scored and 68 runs allowed in 13 games with an actual record of 5-8.
    • May 1-15 totals: 70 runs scored and 77 runs allowed in 15 games with an actual record of 4-11.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.


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