Weather, offenses about to heat upposted: Wednesday, April 18, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry
21 teams have ERAs of less than 4.00...WOW! I hate to say it but it looks like the Reds ERA might be a little skewed by the weather. At least our hitting is also skewed.
Many of the Cardinals and Pirates played in shirt sleeves Tuesday, with the temperature at around 74 degrees. The warm days are coming, and the hitters must be thrilled, after two weeks of swinging the bat in brutal cold, weather that has apparently affected the offense. Going into Tuesday's games, no less than 21 teams had staff ERAs of less than 4.00; last season, a total of three teams had ERAs of less than 4.00 for the year.
The Elias Sports Bureau looked more deeply at how conditions have affected offenses. I e-mailed Steve Hirdt and asked about runs per game in game temperatures of 40 degrees or higher this year, and 39 degrees and lower, and this was his response:
"It certainly has been cold this year -- that has undoubtedly been a factor in the low offensive totals over the season's first two weeks. I'm not sure that a line drawn in the sand at a game-time temperature of 40 degrees makes that point as effectively as one might think, because so few games (18) are involved in the below-40 category, but here are those figures:
Through April 16: HR/Game Runs/Game
18 games with game-time temperature below 40 degrees 1.72 8.06
161 games with game-time temperature of 40+ degrees 1.71 8.64
"I think that the point about the correlation between game-time temperature and offense is better drawn from a wider look. Here are the figures from the last five seasons (2002-06)."
Games HR/G R/G
Below 50 259 1.79 9.04
50 to 59 867 1.81 8.92
60 to 69 2,763 2.00 9.04
70 to 79 4,929 2.17 9.45
80 to 89 2,750 2.29 9.77
90 and above 576 2.69 10.74