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Thread: Young pitchers struggles at the MLB level in relation to future career success?

  1. #1
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Young pitchers struggles at the MLB level in relation to future career success?

    Here are some examples based on stats.

    Example A:

    Code:
    Ag  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
    19  2   2  12   5   2   2   4  0   41.7   33   15   14   2   28   30   1   2   183   1   1  3.02  4.08  135 1.464
    20  2   4  16  10   0   0   1  0   58.7   66   37   32  10   29   30   0   1   261   0   2  4.91  3.96   81 1.619
    21  5   4  34  13   2   0  12  0  104.3   83   49   45  14   51  122   2   5   444   1   0  3.88  4.15  107 1.284
    22 11  11  40  26   5   0   7  1  158.7  132   89   79  19  105  131   1  17   714   6   0  4.48  4.11   92 1.494
    23  8   6  35  23   6   1   6  2  153.3  136   74   69  23   92  173   0   5   679   4   1  4.05  4.22  104 1.487
    24  8  13  37  26   7   2   7  1  175.0  133   83   76  20  100  197   1   9   753   6   0  3.91  3.99  102 1.331
    Example B:

    Code:
    Ag  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
    20  2   4   6   5   1   0   1  0   31.0   44   20   19   3   11   20   1   2   144   2   0  5.52  4.06   74 1.774
    21  6  14  30  27   1   1   2  0  155.7  181  111   97  17   74  101   4   4   701  13   7  5.61  4.29   77 1.638
    Example C:

    Code:
    Ag   W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
    21   2   7  12  12   0   0   0  0   64.0   74   40   39  10   33   37   2   2   297   4   1  5.48  3.70   67 1.672
    Example D:

    Code:
    Ag  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
    24  3   0   4   4   1   0   0  0   26.0   23    8    7   3    7   25   0   3   109   0   0  2.42  3.59  148 1.154
    25  7  13  29  28   2   0   1  0  160.7  147  100   86  13   96  130   3   7   715   2   7  4.82  3.95   82 1.512
    Example E:

    Code:
    Ag  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
    21  2   4   9   9   0   0   0  0   50.3   55   34   31   5   33   20   3   1   238   4   1  5.54  4.37   79 1.748
    22  7  17  34  34   1   0   0  0  195.3  201  111   99  12   63   84   8   2   844   7   2  4.56  3.70   81 1.352
    Example F:

    Code:
    Ag   W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
    21    6   7  17  17   0   0   0  0   97.7  106   54   49  11   33   90   3   4   430   4   1  4.52  3.83   85 1.423
    22   12  11  32  32   0   0   0  0  194.7  173   94   89  33   82  156   6   2   827   3   0  4.11  3.94   96 1.310
    Example G:

    Code:
    Ag   W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
    22   11  10  25  25   1   1   0  0  151.3  166   89   80  23   48   94   5   3   653   6   0  4.76  4.41   93 1.414 AS
    23   11  16  34  34   1   0   0  0  216.7  237  105  100  21   70  170  10   9   934  10   0  4.15  3.99   96 1.417
    24   11  13  34  34   1   0   0  0  220.7  232  122  109  29   43  157   6   7   931   2   0  4.45  4.37   98 1.246
    Example H:

    Code:
    Ag   W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
    20    6  19  33  28   0   0   0  0  162.0  193  118  100  23   58  108   4  12   727   2   2  5.56  4.30   77 1.549
    21   11  13  33  32   2   2   0  0  184.0  168  101  100  24   73  168  10   7   793   5   0  4.89  4.50   92 1.310
    22   14  13  29  29   4   0   0  0  189.0  199  101   96  21   57  145   4   5   801   0   1  4.57  4.27   93 1.354
    Example I:

    Code:
    Ag   W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
    19    4   4  12  12   0   0   0  0   84.3   61   26   25   5   23   77   2   3   328   0   0  2.67  4.32  162 0.996
    20   12  14  31  31   2   1   0  0  191.0  195  105   96  23   60  176   6  11   816   2   0  4.52  4.34   96 1.335

    With the exception of Player D, all of these guys were allowed to come up to the big show at a very young age and take their knocks from big league hitters, suffer defeat, and in essence, learn on the job. When teams realistically have no shot at competing for the World Series title, it's a good time to get a young guy in there and let him get an opportunity to face big league hitters. Realistically speaking, what can a minor league pitching coach teach a young kid that a major league pitching coach can't? The really great pitchers have that ego and poise that lets them struggle through early failures and come out on the other end of it better pitchers in the long run. That's my question about Homer Bailey, does he have that poise and ego to be a truly great pitcher? If so, he should be up here right now taking his knocks as a member of the 2007 Cincinnati Reds and learn how to pitch at the big league level, because these numbers show that this guy has proven that he shouldn't be pitching at the big league level:

    Code:
     Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
     1998 22 MIN AL   8  14  32  32   1   0   0  0  172.3  195  113  108  25   70  107   2   1   772   0   0  5.64  4.70   83 1.538
     1999 23 MIN AL   7  11  34  34   4   2   0  0  206.3  190  111  103  28   63  163   3   2   858   2   0  4.49  5.07  113 1.226
     2000 24 MIN AL  13  10  33  33   0   0   0  0  200.0  205  123  108  35   44  160   7   5   849   0   0  4.86  5.27  108 1.245
     2001 25 MIN AL  15   7  35  34   2   1   0  0  220.7  222  109  106  35   61  157   5   2   944   0   0  4.32  4.53  105 1.282 AS
     2002 26 MIN AL  13   9  29  29   2   1   0  0  171.0  173   96   92  24   30  121   3   4   707   0   0  4.84  4.42   91 1.187
     2003 27 MIN AL   1   0   3   3   0   0   0  0   17.0   15    5    5   2    1    7   0   0    66   0   0  2.65  4.62  175 0.941
     2004 28 PHI NL  14   6  34  34   0   0   0  0  201.0  196  110  106  43   75  161   1   3   862   6   0  4.75  4.36   92 1.348
     2005 29 CIN NL   8  15  34  34   0   0   0  0  186.3  237  141  134  40   52  123   7   8   855   2   0  6.47  4.44   69 1.551
     2006 30 CIN NL   8   8  26  26   0   0   0  0  152.7  163   94   88  29   42   90   5   2   662   4   0  5.19  4.81   93 1.343
     2007 31 CIN NL   0   2   2   2   0   0   0  0   10.7   13    7    6   2    3   10   0   1    49   0   0  5.06  4.13   82 1.500
    +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
     10 Yr WL% .515  87  82 262 261   9   4   0  0 1538.0 1609  909  856 263  441 1099  33  28  6624  14   0  5.01  4.70   94 1.333
    When your starting pitcher for his career has allowed an average of five runs per game, it's time to cut your losses and look for something else. I know it's been said over and over again, but Eric Milton has never been, nor will he ever be, a good major league pitcher.

    Now, if the Reds feel that Bailey's psyche is too fragile to deal with struggling at the major league level, then that tells me that he isn't going to be a great major league pitcher, and the Reds should deal him now for whatever they can get for him before he becomes another Rick Ankiel, Byung Hyun-Kim, Steve Blass, Herb Score, or Mark Wohlers.


    FYI, the above pitchers are:

    A. Sandy Koufax
    B. Greg Maddux
    C. John Smoltz
    D. Randy Johnson
    E. Tom Glavine
    F. Jake Peavy
    G. Ben Sheets
    H. Jeremy Bonderman
    I. Felix Hernandez
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

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  3. #2
    So long old friend rotnoid's Avatar
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    Re: Young pitchers struggles at the MLB level in relation to future career success?

    Nice approach.

    Is it sad if I guessed Koufax before I saw the answers?
    I'm just like everybody else. I have two arms, two legs and 4,000 hits."

    -Pete Rose

  4. #3
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Young pitchers struggles at the MLB level in relation to future career success?

    While I agree with you completly that I would rather have Homer up to take his lumps at the MLB level rather than dominate subpar players you have to take some of those pitchers out of the comparison. Peavy, Sheets, Bonderman, and Hernandez are the only pitchers on that list that I think you can compare with Homer. The others did start their professional career in this age of free agency. Bonderman took his lumps as a young player only to finally grasp how to pitch a couple of years down the road when he is due for arbitration and free agency. For a team like the reds you almost have to be sure that when you bring a guy like homer up you bring him up when he can be successful.

  5. #4
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Young pitchers struggles at the MLB level in relation to future career success?

    Realistically speaking, what can a minor league pitching coach teach a young kid that a major league pitching coach can't?
    How to pitch to Minor Leaguers and not at the expense of his service time, arm or the big league club.

  6. #5
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Young pitchers struggles at the MLB level in relation to future career success?

    What you fail to point out there is that most of those pitchers, but two were called up in mid-summer around the All-Star break or a month after the All-Star break.

    Homer will come up in July just like those guys did.
    Last edited by Eric_Davis; 04-21-2007 at 12:30 PM.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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    Re: Young pitchers struggles at the MLB level in relation to future career success?

    Koufax was left in the major leagues because he was a "bonus baby", and could not be sent to the minor leagues.

    If he had been given the chance to mayure in the minors, it wouldn't have taken him until his 7th year to get it together.

    In todays time, he would have been a FA before he pitched an effective year.

  8. #7
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Young pitchers struggles at the MLB level in relation to future career success?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    How to pitch to Minor Leaguers and not at the expense of his service time, arm or the big league club.
    At the expense of the big league club? Realistically, who do you think gives you a better chance at winning, Milton and his average of giving up 5 per nine innings, or whatever numbers Bailey may be able to put up?


    Then again, a good question to ask would be when was the last time the Reds figured out how to properly handle one of their own prospects?
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!


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