He'd also have the chance to ground into more DPs. That's on top of the the real possibility that seeking to make contact for contact's sake (rather than effective contact) would cost him BA, OB and SLG.Originally Posted by Sea Ray
Every decent hitting coach in the world espouses that you've got to build on what the hitter does well and yet on this board every year we're treated to an bottomless well of suggestions that the Reds ignore that dictum when it comes to Adam Dunn.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Baseball Prospectus stated in 2006 that Carlos Lee's most comparable player was Kevin Mench. He did set a major league record last year for consecutive games with a HR (8) for a RH hitter. They also got a couple minor leaguers who may or may not develop into something.
This organization has tried everything, including all sorts of hitting coaches, with all sorts of differing approaches, yet the result is the same.
This is a very good point.
Anyone who watched Adam Dunn on a regular basis knows that Dunn is a much more effective hitter when he is being patient and waiting for a particlaur pitch (much like just about every hitter).
Since Dunn is not very good at making contact, his best approach is to take pitches that he isn't likely to hit. If he made a concious change where he tries to make more contact, he would probably hit the ball more often, but his ability to walk would severely decrease while his SLG would take a nosedive since he will be swinging at pitches that he isn't likely to handle as well.
As you said, Dunn needs to continue using his same approach where his best assets (patience and power) are maximized. Changing your approach to maximize a worse trait would make Dunn a far less effective hitter. I don't get why people want to change an approach that has been so effective for Dunn for his entire career.
And this approach isn't just for Dunn. For a guy like Vlad Guerrero, I sure wouldn't advise him to start taking more pitches when he has proven over a very long time that he is a MVP calibre hitter by hitting at just about everything. That's an example of a player that would probably decrease his offensive production by looking to take more walks since he has been so effective by putting the ball in play. The key is maximize your strengths and limit your weaknesses.
Mench was a pretty awful hitter last season even with the HR binge. The last 2 seasons his OPS has been in the .760ish range (and that was mostly played in hitters parks). For a guy with limited skills in other areas, that simply isn't cutting it, especially for a LF.
The minor league players they got (Nix and Julian Cordero) have less worth than Cruz at this point, albeit Nix is currently injured. Julian Cordero shouldn't be considered very seriously as a prospect, and Nix has already struggled in the majors for lengthy periods because his plate approach has been chewed up by major league pitching.
Cruz hasn't exactly lit up either, but he hasn't had nearly the opportunity that Nix has had.
Except that Dunn's problem, and it's been brought up many times before, is that he he takes too many pitches that he can hit and finds himself having to swing at something he can't.
I'm in Dunn's corner and I wouldn't have any easy answer as to where the Reds could replace his power. But, I do understand the frustration in the fact that he's basicaly regressed over the last couple of years. In addition, his growing salary increases the dynamic there.
Sometime soon the Reds are going to have to make a decision on which way they are going to go with Adam. I'm certainly not going to give any odds at this point.
Rem
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=6136
Traded LF-R Carlos Lee and RF-R Nelson Cruz to the Rangers for RHP Francisco Cordero, OF-R Kevin Mench, CF-L Laynce Nix and LHP Julian Cordero; placed RHP Jose Capellan on the 15-day DL (strained shoulder), retroactive to 7/25; acquired 3B-R David Bell from the Phillies for RHP Wilfrido Laureano. [7/28]
The Brewers are on the fence about what kind of team they are, and now... they're on the fence about what kind of team they want to be. Rather than make a move that helps them now or in the future, Doug Melvin managed to make a deal that does neither. Mench is already 28, only a year and a half younger than Lee, so this isn't even a good exchange in terms of getting some up-and-comer. Disastrously bad deal that this is, the guy with upside in this trade--Cruz--went to Rangers. Maybe this works out if you really believe that Mench can hit outside of Texas, but there isn't a lot of supporting evidence for that, not when he's slugged .503 on his career at home, and .454 on the road.
Where this does work is financially, making this a throwback to... what, the hoary (ahem) days of Sal Bando? After all, even in arbitration, Mench will cost a lot less than signing Lee would have, and Lee rejected what the Brewers felt had to be their final offer ($48 million over four years). There's just about no way that Melvin can get away from paying an aging Geoff Jenkins his $7 million next year, so you can pretty much guarantee that the Brewers will have a weak pair of starting outfielders, Jenkins because age happens, and Mench because Melvin didn't capitalize on the decision to deal Lee. I suppose getting rid of Cruz makes some strange sort of sense, because after all, he'd simply be blocked, again, what with Mench and Jenkins in the way. Yes, that also means that Corey Hart has to wait another year, despite his having more offensive upside than any of these other guys.
I don't really see that as Dunn's main problem. The last couple of years Dunn has seemed more inclined to swing at more pitches in just about every zone (including his 'hot spots')
IMO, it's the pitches on the outside of the plate and in the dirt that he has flailed wildly at with limited success that has attributed to his struggles. I'm not sure if he's trying to quiet his critics by swinging more often, or if it's an approach led by the hitting coaches of the last few seasons.
I underatnd that people can see him as being overlly patient, but that approach has led to his best success. Even though he does let some hittable pitches by, he still seems to get more benefit from taking pitches he is unsure about. What I'm saying is that I think the increased amount of walks by being ultra-patient outweighs the hits lost by letting good pitches go by without a swing.
Are Andi McDowell and Bill Murray in this thread? I think I've read it before. And I think I've posted the following before:
The problem with Adam Dunn is that when he's on a tear, he is great. And then he goes completely cold--and we all become very frustrated, because we've seen what potential he has when he's hot.
Unfortunately, he's picked a time to go cold when most of the rest of the team is also cold, just like last September. I don't know what the answer is. In my perfect world, he's a Red for his career and ends with over 500 homers. But my perfect world doesn't have salary implications or the fact that the Reds have a left fielder that really is better suited to DH.
Oh well, carry on. I'm quite sure we'll see a similar thread in another couple of months and then one in the spring of '08. If Adam is traded, I'm sure we'll see the thread on Dodger.zone or Angel.zone or something like that.
Where we gonna go?
I appreciate your opinion but mine would be the opposite, especially with runners on base. A pitch in the strikezone that a hitter can handle (which is the premis I made above) should be driven, not taken.
Either way, at this point in AD's career I am doubtful that he will/can change so I think it's a case of "whatcha' see is whatcha' got". (famous shrug)
Rem
The thing the worries me........is take a look at some of the Reds best prospects in the minor leagues, Bruce and Stubbs. Both of them strike out at alarming rates as well. I know they are young, and could improve, but I would think that if I'm the reds GM, see some of this mess at the major league level, I'm doubly telling my minor league instructors to curb this problem as the players make their way through the organization.
The scary part is Dunn was not a .220 hitter with tons of strike outs in the minors.
Jay Bruce doesn't strike out that much. He struck out fewer than one in four at bats last year. Stubbs is just starting out.
As for Dunn, his strikeout numbers this year are off the chart high. Over his career he strikes out (based on official at bats) between 30 and 34.6 percent of the time. This year, 38.6. His walk rate is way down. And he is hitting a lot more ground balls than fly balls, which is unusual and probably not good in his case.
He may be hurt, but my guess is that these numbers will correct. Because of his hot start the first week, his overall season stats (BA, OBP, OPS) aren't terrible and I think he will pick things up on this next trip, if healthy.
I think the Reds offense will pick up generally, but ultimately they need to get a couple of true third and fourth place hitters. Steady, top of the line guys. Right now, in this organization, the two guys I can see in that role are Bruce and Hamilton. Dunn is not consistent enough; Griffey is just not that type hitter now.
The Reds' hitting will get better this year, but still they are missing some important offensive pieces.
Last edited by Kc61; 04-23-2007 at 05:15 PM.
The Reds are 9-10 in April people its not the end of the world.
We have May,June,July,August,September and a week of
October 19-162=143 games left.Our players don't even have
80 AB yet.Can it get worse? surebut I believe the Reds will
improve from last year.
Quit sucking up all the fun out of baseball.
Last edited by Fullboat; 04-23-2007 at 05:26 PM.
The Hunt for a Reds October.
106 k's last year in about 480 PA's, you are right, it's less than 1/4 of the time, but couple that with the fact that he only drew 44 walks, and that is not good plate discipline. Now granted, he was young for A ball, even low A ball, but it's something that the Reds need to address, as an organization as a whole, and it needs to change. You can't strike out 1200 times a year as a team and win consistently unless you are getting on base at an enormous rate and/or hit a large, large amount of home runs.
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