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Thread: Reds Trading Pieces

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    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Reds Trading Pieces

    Just bored and went through our roster searching for trade ideas and who could be brought in and whatnot. Here is what I came up with. All replacement options are only in house. I didn't feel the need to expound upon trade ideas and possibilities. There are just too many




    1B
    Hatteburg- What can a 38 year old, career .271 hitter bring in return? bumbkis
    Conine- He does have a young body...
    Replacement options-Votto

    2B
    Brandon Phillips- 25 yr old + glove shows signs of having ability to hit for power. If apart of the right package deal could be used to find some upgrades. Last year hit .276 17 HR
    Juan Castro- A joke of a player but still Royce Clayton was traded last year...
    Replacement options- Freel, Castro, Bellhorn, Keppinger

    SS
    Alex Gonzalez- Just signed to a 3 year 14 million $$ contract. Very light hitting but near gold glove caliber in the field. I see 0 trade value with the combo of his hitting ability/contact status.
    Replacement options- Freel, Janish, Machado

    3B
    Edwin Encarnacion- This could be very interesting trading piece. 24 year old with pop and glove work (he can't throw to first though...) Last year hit .276 with 15 dingahs in only 406 ABs. Coupled in a group with a prospect or 2 could possibly net something the equivalent to a young Aaron Harang (i know but this is the harang I was referring to ) see http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/haranaa01.shtml notice the 2003/4 years. A relatively young pitcher with limited major league experience that has an above average ceiling
    Replacement options- Freel, Aaron Herr (hit .285 with 13 HR in between AA/AAA last year) Castro

    OF
    Ken Griffey Jr- The same one who said "Its like a party in my mouth, and everybody is invited" - during a voice-over on The Simpsons is due to make 12 mil (or so) this year and has some unreal contract that is remaining. (32 mil left I believe correct me if I'm wrong) Could net a couple of prospects at best at this stage of his career and only to an AL team where he will be forced to DH. Also is a 10/5 guy...
    Adam Dunn- Could net (by himself) a #3 type pitcher. Has a lot of money in his contract left and is also another 10/5 guy. We all know what he brings and doesn't to the table. It has been debated for ages here.
    Ryan Freel- Super Utility guy and impossible to trade by himself. He would be forced to be apart of a package for us to gain anything of note. At best a AA pitcher single handedly.
    Josh Hamilton- Who really knows what his trade value is. I believe we have his rights for the next 5(6?) years though. So he will remain a cheap power source for quite some time. However his trade value has never been higher. I think apart of a package he could be the marque and maybe get us a #3/#4 type starter or possibly a couple of highly regarded prospects from a team like the D-Rays/Diamond backs who each have about a zillion top 100 types.
    Replacement Options-See any of the above if one is traded.

    SP
    Aaron Harang- Dominant pitcher led the league in Ks, IP, and tied with wins last year. Could net a kings Ransom in Prospects if a rebuilding phase was decided upon. Possibly able to bring in a Phillip Hughes+
    Bronson Arroyo- Last year had a breakout posting a 3.29 ERA but was limited in wins due to poor run support. Could land a load of prospects just because a pitcher's value in the trading world has never been higher.
    Kyle Lohse- Off to his fastest start ever with a 1.91 ERA. His value has never been this high before and can not get any higher. He is in a contract year and if we are out of contention by mid season he could be dealt for a plethora of prospects. A very good pitcher is worth double his weight on gold in this market.
    Eric Milton- you have a better chance of winning the lottery in 3 consecutive weeks than pawning him off on some unwary team. However he has been pitching good enough to be a solid #4/5 typ pitcher this yeara but 9$ mil left?
    Matt Belisle- A guy that is still young and still hasn't reached his ceiling. Could be packaged with a group for one of those power hitting RH bats we've been searching for...
    Replacement options- Homer Bailey, Bobby Livingston, Phil Dumatrait, Kirk Sarloos

    RP
    David Weathers- Crafty kind of guy with minimal value. Does show the ability to record a save when needed though. Who really knows
    Todd Coffey- Despite his 2 recent breakdowns he has shown the ability to throw a 93-95 mph fastball for strikes. last year had a 3.58 era with 78 IP. Once again though by himself he has minimal trade value must be packaged.
    Basically everyone else in the pen has little to no value and will be throw ins into the ever so elusive"package"

    MINORS
    Homer Bailey- What else is needed to be said about this kid? Single handedly could bring in Major League talent to the starting rotation (#2/3). Number 2 overall pitching prospect (baseballamerica.com)
    Joey Votto- Number 43 overall (baseballamerica.com) Shows quick hands and plate discipline with power potential. The future of the reds 1B
    Jay Bruce- Number 14 overall minor league prospect (baseballamerica.com)Dynamite player that could be a cornerstoone of a trade. Send him mixed with some other major league players and possibly scratch out a dime. However he is only 19 and is still at least 2 years away from the bigs. Hitting .333 so far this year through 60+ ABs
    Johnny Cueto- Among redszoners he is the heir apparent but, according the rest of civilization or baseballamerica he isn't even a top 100 minor league guy. I know only what I read from you guys and you all appeear to be rather biased
    Drew Stubbs- Number 88 (baseballamerica.com) So far this year he is .346 with 7 ribs and a HR. The jury is still out as far as trade potential.





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    Last edited by thatcoolguy_22; 04-23-2007 at 01:27 AM.
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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    It seems like there was some real thought put into this, but all these "lets trade this guy" threads get kind of old. It seems like people need to realize that this isn't a fantasy league or MVP on the PS2, this is the major leagues.

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    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    Quote Originally Posted by killuminati35 View Post
    It seems like there was some real thought put into this, but all these "lets trade this guy" threads get kind of old. It seems like people need to realize that this isn't a fantasy league or MVP on the PS2, this is the major leagues.
    i thought this article pretty much said that. Look at every player with the exception of Lohse/EE and there really isn't anyone even remotely tradeable. And Lohse WILL be traded this year. The only real question would be possible partners. As soon as it appears that we are out of the running he is gone.


    And besides brotha, this is a baseball forum where you talk about anything related to the game. There were over 5 pages about Alyssa Milano's clothing line for crying out loud. I would much rather debate trade scenarios than whether or not I should purchase a fiitted jersey for my g/f (but it lifts AND seperates)
    Last edited by thatcoolguy_22; 04-23-2007 at 02:00 AM.
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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    Very good and interesting summary of the Reds' trading material.

    Your analysis shows the Reds don't have the players that other teams want badly enough that they will be willing to trade us quality players good enough to improve our team this year. Any trade the Reds can make will help us next year or later. I think the best the Reds can do is trade a couple of relief pitchers to obtain a few mid-range prospects. I am thinking of the Mercker-for-Belisle trade of two years ago as an example. These kinds of trades can be made when the trade deadline approaches in August. Some team still in contention may be willing to overpay for a role player like Conine, Hatteberg, Freel, Cormier, Stanton or Weathers at that time.

    If a team wants to significantly improve their team, the best time to do it is the offseason. During the season (especially this early) we would have to pay top value for any high-quality player. This means in order to bring in a quality upgrade we will have to give up the likes of Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, Bailey or Bruce. I don't think the Reds are willing to do that, but maybe they should.

    The only position the Reds have an excess of capable players to use as trade bait is the bullpen. We have guys like Bray, Burton, Majewski and others that we could trade because we are not using them, but we wouldn't get any studs in return (not even Kearns or Lopez).

    I keep looking for trade scenarios in which the Reds could upgrade one position without hurting another position. I can't find any real possibilities.

    In my opinion the position of our greatest need is first base. If you compare our 1st base platoon to the players manning 1st base for the other 29 teams I think this is the position where we are closest to the bottom of the league. Hatteberg and Conine are decent hitters, but they play a position where nearly all the other teams have a true stud, run-producing basher to build the batting order around. Hatteberg and Conine are good backup-level / pinch-hitting guys to have around, but they are not worthy of starting at the easiest position on the field to play. Unfortunately the Reds do not have sufficient trading pieces to allow us to significantly upgrade at first base. Maybe Votto come August?

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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    "Adam Dunn- Could net (by himself) a #3 type pitcher. Has a lot of money in his contract left and is also another 10/5 guy. We all know what he brings and doesn't to the table. It has been debated for ages here."

    When did Dunn become a 10/5 guy? He's only been in the league since 2001.
    Am I missing something here.

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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    Thanks for the good read. You put a lot of thought and effort into this and not a whole lot (if anything) that I disagree about. More threads of this caliber would be welcome on Redszone.

    Your thought process throws a couple of interesting questions out there. Would we be a stronger team with Votto manning first and Hattie/Conine coming off the bench? Could we trade E. Encarnacion (which would not be popular on this board) and make the Red's a better team?

    As I said previously thanks for the good read.

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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsnake View Post
    "Adam Dunn- Could net (by himself) a #3 type pitcher. Has a lot of money in his contract left and is also another 10/5 guy. We all know what he brings and doesn't to the table. It has been debated for ages here."

    When did Dunn become a 10/5 guy? He's only been in the league since 2001.
    Am I missing something here.
    same team since 2001. I was under the assumption that it was either or, 10 years in the league or 5 with the same ball club. I could be mistaken though.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

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    So long old friend rotnoid's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    same team since 2001. I was under the assumption that it was either or, 10 years in the league or 5 with the same ball club. I could be mistaken though.

    It's both. Players only get 10/5 rights after 10 years of ML service and the last 5 with the same team. That's why it's a big deal for vets who leave as free agents to negotiate a no trade clause in their new contracts. They lose the 10/5 rights because the clock starts over on the 5.
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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    I think Edwin will be traded before the start of the 2008 season. It's pretty obvious that he has fallen out of favor. The lack of a legitimate replacement 3b won't stop Wayne from dealing him.. He'll either stick Freel there or take an old Clayton-like 3b back as part of the return haul..

    If we are "close" at the deadline, I can seriously see Wayne trading Edwin for relief pitching and holding Lohse in an ill advised attempt to "go for it".

    I agree that Lohse should be shopped hard at the deadline if he's still pitching well. We desparately need an influx of young talent. However, as dumb as this sounds, if Lohse pitches well this season, I think Wayne would prefer to extend him instead of trading him. That seems to be Wayne's thing.
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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    If we are "close" at the deadline, I can seriously see Wayne trading Edwin for relief pitching and holding Lohse in an ill advised attempt to "go for it".

    I agree that Lohse should be shopped hard at the deadline if he's still pitching well. We desparately need an influx of young talent. However, as dumb as this sounds, if Lohse pitches well this season, I think Wayne would prefer to extend him instead of trading him. That seems to be Wayne's thing.
    He might prefer it, but I'm not sure we can afford it. If Lohse keeps this up, the Reds might just be priced out of the market for him. Pitchers of his caliber will probably command something in the range of 3 years/$24 million (again, assuming he continues to pitch fairly well) or more. At that dollar amount, I think the Reds would be more inclined to go with the young guys they already have (and take the draft picks), based on their activity in last year's market. Having Harang and Arroyo locked up allows them some flexibility in the 3, 4, and 5 spots in the rotation.
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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    Freel would be a disaster at 3b on an every day basis. Actually I want to see him at 3b as little as possible. I think you may see some of the veteran bull pen pieces get traded by the deadline. I think Weathers, Stanton, and Cormeir all could be traded at some point this year. Unfortunatly these players aren't going to get much more than a mid level prospect. A trade that I can invision is packaging Lohse with Freel. So far Lohse has looked very good and Freel could be an important piece on a playoff hopeful with his versatility and his ability to steal bases. Hatty and Conine could also be moved but they would be minor deals as well.

    What I do not want to see is some of the younger players spend all of the year in AAA because the reds have a group of veteran players with MLB contracts. Maj, Bray, Votto, and even Baily need to be up on this club at some time this year. It would serve them as well as the reds no good to keep them down in Louisville all year long.

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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    Quote Originally Posted by rotnoid View Post
    He might prefer it, but I'm not sure we can afford it. If Lohse keeps this up, the Reds might just be priced out of the market for him. Pitchers of his caliber will probably command something in the range of 3 years/$24 million (again, assuming he continues to pitch fairly well) or more. At that dollar amount, I think the Reds would be more inclined to go with the young guys they already have (and take the draft picks), based on their activity in last year's market. Having Harang and Arroyo locked up allows them some flexibility in the 3, 4, and 5 spots in the rotation.
    I think Lohse at mid season is a possibility. The Reds won't spend and probably shouldn't spend 8 mil per year on him. Could be a good one if they fall out of contention.
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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    I just don't understand why the heck everyone wants to trade Freel. He's a very useful guy, a fan favorite and, a good player. We just signed him to an extension at a rate of pay that I think is very fair.

    I don't think this team, as currently constructed, can compete for a pennant. However, I do not think we're far away. We need a couple of good bullpen arms and a right-handed power bat. Still, this sort of mentality is not the fault of the fan; it is my hypothesis that fans of teams like the Reds develop this sort of "perpetual rebuilding mode" mentality. We look at players like Freel, Lohse, and Arroyo and evaluate them not on what they can do to help us win but, what prospects they can net us at the trading deadline.

    This homestand really took the wind out of our collective sails but, remember that this season is not even 20 games old yet and we're in a pretty mediocre division. Griffey, Ross, and EE WILL start to hit. Our bullpen is not as good as the first 15 games demonstrated; however, it is also not as bad as the past 5. It's somewhere inbetween, which makes it serviceable.

    Let's see what happens over the next couple of months before we get into sell-mode.
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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    Quote Originally Posted by rotnoid View Post
    He might prefer it, but I'm not sure we can afford it. If Lohse keeps this up, the Reds might just be priced out of the market for him. .
    I agree. I don't think the Reds should extend Lohse. However, I could see Wayne doing it. We could absorb 8 million/year for him.. Milton's salary rolls off the books after this year. I agree with you, it would be a dumb move, but I could see Wayne wanting to resign one of his "success stories".. Just look at what he did with Ross, after Ross' career year. Yes, that was less money, but I think we have precedence.

    Wayne is a little bit too loose in extending players. He has no problem giving big contracts to marginal players, and seems swayed by career years. I think Lohse is a horrible gamble. He seems like the type that would bust his butt this year for the big payday and then go back to his old self as soon as he gets the fat contract.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Trading Pieces

    With the absolute dearth of right handed power on this club and our complete lack of 3B depth in the minors, EE can't go anywhere unless a 3B is coming back in our direction. The kid needs time and experience.

    The real point is that Krivsky has taken O'Brien's imbalanced roster and flattened it out. Unfortunately, it still lacks the raw high potential talent necessary to push us being a legitimate playoff contender.

    As we've seen we have a number of capable guys, but very few true impact guys. We need to turn quantity in to quality in terms of bullpen in particular. Sometimes you can naturally get quality out of quantity, but I'm not sure Coffey, Countlangus, etc. will ever be lights-out type guys. Solid ML relievers, sure. But a staff full of David Weathers' and Mike Stanton's will help you win 80 games.

    Both in the field and on the staff, we need 1-2 impact players and we're going to have to create room for them. The question in my mind is who goes, and more importantly, who fills that spot? Trade Dunn and make a run at Andruw Jones? There are going to have to be familiar names moved if this team is going to take the next step. With the youth we have coming, the roster needs to be positioned to take advantage of it. It should make for an interesting year.
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