Reds Trading Pieces

[UGADaddy]

I'd like to see EdE leave so we can get the four OFs in regularly (Freel to 3B). I'd also LOVE to see either Griffey or Dunn traded, but what's the going rate for an overpriced aging RF or a LF who can't play defense and strikes out nearly every other AB? The Reds need some bats, particularly from the right side of the box, but I don't know how they're going to get them without giving up some minor league talent.

[REDREAD]

I think Lohse at mid season is a possibility. The Reds won't spend and probably shouldn't spend 8 mil per year on him. Could be a good one if they fall out of contention.

It would be perfect to trade Lohse and then bring up Homer (if he's ready).
Heck, if Homer isn't ready, I wouldn't mind having Sarloos in the rotation the rest of the year.

If I had to bet though, I'd say that if Lohse is looking good in July, Wayne will try to extend him. Let's hope Lohse is too unreasonable and greedy and the deal doesn't get done. I'm concerned at the way the Reds really were talking Lohse up this spring. They seem to have a very high opinion of him. Obviously, I'm purely speculating here.

[rotnoid]

If I had to bet though, I'd say that if Lohse is looking good in July, Wayne will try to extend him. Let's hope Lohse is too unreasonable and greedy and the deal doesn't get done. I'm concerned at the way the Reds really were talking Lohse up this spring. They seem to have a very high opinion of him. Obviously, I'm purely speculating here.

I agree with you. If Lohse's agent is earning his keep and Lohse is pitching reasonably well in July, he's got to test the market. It's a fair bet the Reds won't overpay.

[TheBigLebowski]

If Lohse continues to pitch like he currently is (bear in mind, his era will probably balance out somewhere in the mid-3.00's), he's worth 8 mil to me. I'd be upset if we didn't pony up that type of cash to keep him. Reference this past off-season and the dollar value paid to some very, very average pitchers.

[PuffyPig]

If Lohse continues to pitch like he currently is (bear in mind, his era will probably balance out somewhere in the mid-3.00's), he's worth 8 mil to me. I'd be upset if we didn't pony up that type of cash to keep him. Reference this past off-season and the dollar value paid to some very, very average pitchers.

It's very unlikely Lohse can post an ERA in the mid 3's. That's ace material these days.

If he can give us 200 innings of 4 ERA, consider ourselves blessed.

EE shouldn't be going anywhere. He's a huge part of our future. Zero chance he will be traded this year.

[PuffyPig]

I'd like to see EdE leave so we can get the four OFs in regularly (Freel to 3B). I'd also LOVE to see either Griffey or Dunn traded, but what's the going rate for an overpriced aging RF or a LF who can't play defense and strikes out nearly every other AB? The Reds need some bats, particularly from the right side of the box, but I don't know how they're going to get them without giving up some minor league talent.

If we need RH bats so badly, why trade our best one (EE) when his value is lowest?

[UGADaddy]

If we need RH bats so badly, why trade our best one (EE) when his value is lowest?

Best RH hitter? I know everyone on here loves EdE, but let's be honest. He's only just above a so-so hitter when he's at his best. He's currently hitting below the Mendoza Line. Conine is far and away the best righty on the team right now. I'd probably take Phillips and Freel ahead of EdE also. Valentin and AGon are also hitting better. The only righty EdE is better than right now is DRoss (how much longer is he going to see opportunities?)...and maybe Castro--maybe.

[redsmetz]

In my opinion the position of our greatest need is first base. If you compare our 1st base platoon to the players manning 1st base for the other 29 teams I think this is the position where we are closest to the bottom of the league. Hatteberg and Conine are decent hitters, but they play a position where nearly all the other teams have a true stud, run-producing basher to build the batting order around. Hatteberg and Conine are good backup-level / pinch-hitting guys to have around, but they are not worthy of starting at the easiest position on the field to play. Unfortunately the Reds do not have sufficient trading pieces to allow us to significantly upgrade at first base. Maybe Votto come August?

I'm not as adept at a doing the comparisons, but just a quick manual check shows that Conine/Hatteberg are at:

77 AB
21 Hits
.273 Average

10 Runs
14 RBI

4 Doubles
1 Triple (did they have oxygen with Mark Berry??)
4 HR

If that's bottom of the pack, then the entire corps of First Baseman in MLB are all hitting like Hall of Famers.

Extrapolated out for a full season that's:

178 hits

34 doubles
9 triples (unlikely, yes)
34 HR

119 RBI
60 BB

I'll take that from a caretaker position, plus at those numbers, either of those players could be moved at the trade deadline if something attractive shows up. Of course, a small sample rarely works out to that sort of comparison, but you get the point. I think it's highly doubtful that our platoon is near the bottom.

[thatcoolguy_22]

I'll take that from a caretaker position, plus at those numbers, either of those players could be moved at the trade deadline if something attractive shows up. Of course, a small sample rarely works out to that sort of comparison, but you get the point. I think it's highly doubtful that our platoon is near the bottom.

I agree completely with your idea of allowing Conine/Hatteburg finish the season on the super platoon. Also both would be great role players come July 31 that would each bring in some more young talent right when a mister J. Votto would be expecting a call-up anyways. However so far in this young season Votto hasn't exactly been looking like what he have copme to expect from him. His numbers in the small sample... .161BA 56AB 1 2B 1 3B 1HR 18SO .587OPS... Votto is someone I think could use an entire year in Louisville.


RH hitting...

For the record I am with keeping EE for as long as possible. He has been hitting the ball hard all year but always right at someone. Those liners will start to find the gaps here shortly and the average will start jumping. He is the best RH hitter on the team hands down. He will develop. EE is only 24 people. Granted he is no Arod(who already had over 150HR at that age with over 3000ABs) or Griffey(over 150 HR and 5 gold gloves) but he will come around and be able to hold his own IMO.

[AtomicDumpling]

The Conine/Hatteberg numbers were based on their career numbers, not just two weeks of April extrapolated over a season. I used their career numbers, which was generous because they are both clearly well past their prime as hitters.

I am not saying they suck. I am just saying they don't stack up against the other players in the league at their position. Look at the other starting first basemen in our division: Albert Pujols (1.102 OPS in 2006), Derrick Lee (missed last year but 1.080 OPS in 2005), Lance Berkman (1.041 OPS in 2006), Prince Fielder (22 year old uber-prospect, .831 OPS in 2006), and Adam LaRoche (.941 OPS last year). Those guys make Hatteberg (37 yrs old, .767 career OPS but career year of .826 last year) and Conine (.721 OPS in 2006 and 40 yrs old) look pretty pathetic don't they?

First base is a major reason why the Reds are not very good offensively. We have decent-hitting guys playing there while our competition has GREAT-hitting guys playing there. My point was that if we are going to trade for an offensive upgrade then 1B would be the best position for the Reds to improve.

[Newman4]

If we need RH bats so badly, why trade our best one (EE) when his value is lowest?

He has the highest upside of all the RH bats, IMO. As previously mentioned, also plays a position without a surplus of depth in the Reds system or in general really. I think Bray will help eventually. Also, Livingston and/or Homer could provide better innings than some of the in-house guys. WK won't stand for the lack of performance from the status quo bullpen. Possibly some minor trades for bullpen or RH OF bat could happen, but I don't see anything major.

[redsmetz]

The Conine/Hatteberg numbers were based on their career numbers, not just two weeks of April extrapolated over a season. I used their career numbers, which was generous because they are both clearly well past their prime as hitters.

I am not saying they suck. I am just saying they don't stack up against the other players in the league at their position. Look at the other starting first basemen in our division: Albert Pujols (1.102 OPS in 2006), Derrick Lee (missed last year but 1.080 OPS in 2005), Lance Berkman (1.041 OPS in 2006), Prince Fielder (22 year old uber-prospect, .831 OPS in 2006), and Adam LaRoche (.941 OPS last year). Those guys make Hatteberg (37 yrs old, .767 career OPS but career year of .826 last year) and Conine (.721 OPS in 2006 and 40 yrs old) look pretty pathetic don't they?

First base is a major reason why the Reds are not very good offensively. We have decent-hitting guys playing there while our competition has GREAT-hitting guys playing there. My point was that if we are going to trade for an offensive upgrade then 1B would be the best position for the Reds to improve.

Frankly, you're talking history and I'm talking the here and now. What any player has done previously doesn't matter for now or the future. We've all understood that Hatt and Conine are holding the position for some future player. If we're getting the numbers we've gotten thus far for this season, then that's a good thing and it's as good as most of the First Basemen in the majors this season. I really don't care what their past record is - I want to know what they're doing for us now. It's absurd to say that the output of the 1B platoon is our biggest problem.

[AtomicDumpling]

Frankly, you're talking history and I'm talking the here and now. What any player has done previously doesn't matter for now or the future. We've all understood that Hatt and Conine are holding the position for some future player. If we're getting the numbers we've gotten thus far for this season, then that's a good thing and it's as good as most of the First Basemen in the majors this season. I really don't care what their past record is - I want to know what they're doing for us now. It's absurd to say that the output of the 1B platoon is our biggest problem.

Why the hostility?

The subject of the thread is trades. I suggested that 1B is a position the Reds could easily upgrade. A quick look around the league certainly show that other teams have better first basemen than the Reds do. The list of stud first basemen in MLB is very impressive. Hatteberg and Conine are not studs. Decent hitters yes. Studs no.

I did not say that 1B is our biggest problem.

I think almost everyone looks at a player's historical performance to evaluate how they are likely to perform in the future. Is Encarnacion likely to hit .190 all season? We can predict with a high probability of success that EE will improve his batting average above .190 right? How? Because we have a much larger sample size in the past that shows he is a better hitter than that. I think we all understand the concept and agree that historical statistics are definitely relevant.

At the end of this season we will be able to look back and see that the production of Reds first basemen was not as good as 90% of the other first basemen in the league (unless Votto takes over). I think that qualifies as a situation in need of improvement.

[that_guy]

Isn't Lohse's agent Scott Boras? At least at one point he was, and if that hasn't changed I highly doubt the Reds can afford to keep Lohse if he continues to pitch well...

[membengal]

Hey thatcoolguy...nice summation of what is tradeable and what isn't on this team. I appreciate your effort in starting this thread.

Seems to me that (and I am NOT advocating dealing these folks) that the most tradeable commodities for the Reds are:

1. Homer Bailey
2. Aaron Harang
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. EE
5. Adam Dunn
6. Brandon Phillips
7. Ryan Freel
8. Kyle Lohse (could go up if he keeps to crank it out like he has)

The Reds' needs? A ton, across the board. But that group would bring the hightest return. Question is, how far are the Reds willing to go in turning the team over? And when?