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Thread: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

  1. #31
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    One of the things that blows me away is how prospects will go up and down in the evaluation process.

    The NFL has a two or three players that can surprise people and move up, and a few knuckleheads who do something dumb and drop a round or two.

    But in following your guys evaluations, it strikes me that there are players who one person sees as a possible first round pick and another person sees dropping to the 3rd or 4th round.

    Quite the crapshoot.
    That's the basball draft in a nutshell. One of the issues is that the draft comes during the season. In football and basketball, the pro and college seasons are over when the draft rolls around. Who were the top prospects for the NFL and NBA drafts back in August? Probably there's been a good bit of churn since then, guys who rose and fell during the season.

    That's what baseball's dealing with right now. Surprises are cropping up while some hot properties going into the season are dropping. Most of the top 30 picks when the draft goes down are going to be guys who weren't on the top 30 list back in March.

    This doesn't even get into the fact that, unlike football and basketball, teams are drafting players who won't even see the majors for years. You're trying to project talent three or four years down the road. You've got to be part part scientist, part psychic, part witch doctor to get the baseball draft on a consitent basic.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  3. #32
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    I'd like to see a close to the majors college starter. Even though they are risky, I honestly believe that pitching prices have all but taken small and mi market teams out fo the running for good starting pitching. Adding another good power arm to Harang, Arroyo and Bailey in 2 or 3 years will really help at that time and when Harang and Arroyo's contracts are done.

    If not an arm, then they would have to go after a top flight bat. It would have to be an automatic, in my mind. They have a chance to really do some damage in this draft. Hopefully the opportunity isn't wasted.

  4. #33
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I'd like to see a close to the majors college starter. Even though they are risky, I honestly believe that pitching prices have all but taken small and mi market teams out fo the running for good starting pitching. Adding another good power arm to Harang, Arroyo and Bailey in 2 or 3 years will really help at that time and when Harang and Arroyo's contracts are done.

    If not an arm, then they would have to go after a top flight bat. It would have to be an automatic, in my mind. They have a chance to really do some damage in this draft. Hopefully the opportunity isn't wasted.
    You say that pitching prices have taken small amd middle market teams out of the runner, but we got both Arroyo and Harang fairly cheap in trades. On the otherhand the Giants are paying Barry Zito 126 million dollars and I would take Bronson and Aaron any day of the week of Zito, with or without their contracts.

  5. #34
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You say that pitching prices have taken small amd middle market teams out of the runner, but we got both Arroyo and Harang fairly cheap in trades. On the otherhand the Giants are paying Barry Zito 126 million dollars and I would take Bronson and Aaron any day of the week of Zito, with or without their contracts.
    Come on Spanish, you're better than that. Zito had much more leverage than Harang and Arroyo put together. That's why he got $126 million. They got Harang and Arroyo fairly cheap in trades. They got Claussen cheap as well. If WK could guarantee that he can pull trades like that every year, then I'm in and he can concentrate on the lineup. But Harang and Arroyo are the exceptions, not the rule.

  6. #35
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Come on Spanish, you're better than that. Zito had much more leverage than Harang and Arroyo put together. That's why he got $126 million. They got Harang and Arroyo fairly cheap in trades. They got Claussen cheap as well. If WK could guarantee that he can pull trades like that every year, then I'm in and he can concentrate on the lineup. But Harang and Arroyo are the exceptions, not the rule.
    Cheap pitching is available, you just have to be smart about getting it. While pitching in general is quite expensive, you have to spend your money wisely on it. You cant really go after the Santanas and the Zitos of the world, but you can get quality pitching for half the price of those guys.

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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Cheap pitching is available, you just have to be smart about getting it. While pitching in general is quite expensive, you have to spend your money wisely on it. You cant really go after the Santanas and the Zitos of the world, but you can get quality pitching for half the price of those guys.
    Yeah, but you can get Santana and Zito if you draft them. Then, when you have to deal them, you can get rich again.

    The problem is the risk. But in a draft where the Reds have multiple high end picks (thanks Rich and Scott), they can afford to go after an arm or two early.

  8. #37
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Yeah, but you can get Santana and Zito if you draft them. Then, when you have to deal them, you can get rich again.

    The problem is the risk. But in a draft where the Reds have multiple high end picks (thanks Rich and Scott), they can afford to go after an arm or two early.
    Unless you dont trade Zito or Santana and have to let them walk. They cant afford to draft pitching just because its pitching. No one can do that. Its horrible draft strategy to not take the guy you think has the best chance to succeed.

  9. #38
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Unless you dont trade Zito or Santana and have to let them walk. They cant afford to draft pitching just because its pitching. No one can do that. Its horrible draft strategy to not take the guy you think has the best chance to succeed.
    That's not what I am saying. You can't draft pitching for the sake of it. But, for example, if you use a 1-100 rating scale and there's a college pitcher rated an 84 and an OFer rated an 85, I'd go for the pitcher. But if the pitcher had a red flag and was rated an 80, I'd go with the OFer.

    The Reds have a lot of holes right now, top to bottom. But I think they need to emphasize pitching in the draft. Florida has done a pretty good job at doing this. I wouldn't mind at least looking into their philospohy.

  10. #39
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    That's the basball draft in a nutshell. One of the issues is that the draft comes during the season. In football and basketball, the pro and college seasons are over when the draft rolls around. Who were the top prospects for the NFL and NBA drafts back in August? Probably there's been a good bit of churn since then, guys who rose and fell during the season.

    That's what baseball's dealing with right now. Surprises are cropping up while some hot properties going into the season are dropping. Most of the top 30 picks when the draft goes down are going to be guys who weren't on the top 30 list back in March.

    This doesn't even get into the fact that, unlike football and basketball, teams are drafting players who won't even see the majors for years. You're trying to project talent three or four years down the road. You've got to be part part scientist, part psychic, part witch doctor to get the baseball draft on a consitent basic.

    The other factor of course is signability. I had a friend of a friend who probably would have been drafted out of high school fairly high, but once he got past a certain round every one knew he was going to college so he didn't get drafted until the 37th round i believe.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    The other factor of course is signability. I had a friend of a friend who probably would have been drafted out of high school fairly high, but once he got past a certain round every one knew he was going to college so he didn't get drafted until the 37th round i believe.
    Money talks...draft a first round talent in the 8th (i.e. Dellin Betances) and throw money at them and they'll sign. That's why money is big in drafts and why I got so fired up when I watched WK blow potentially nice bonus money on guys like Cormier and Stanton.

  12. #41
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Keith Law has a new list up, this time with the top 80 draft eligible players. Interesting players available at or just behind our slots, including positions of need.

    It shows LaPorta in the #15 slot, so maybe he will be availble.

    Beau Mills also slotted at one of our picks, if we drafted those two, we'd have nice depth at 1B.

    Is the 2nd round too early to draft a good reliever? (Wynn Pelzer)

    Here's the link, not a premium list, but its pretty long and I don't know if this particular thread is the place for it. Someone else can post it if they want to.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insid...26id%3d2841787

  13. #42
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    The more I read about Jason Heyward, the more I like him. I don't think he makes it all the way down to our pick at 15 though.

    A recent article about him in Rise Magazine:

    http://www.risemag.com/main.cfm?acti...articleID=9370

  14. #43
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Is there any chance we get Weiters? Is he supposed to be like Joe Mauer good? I just say best player available, no matter what.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post

    Jason Heyward has been running hot and cold, so he could drop to #15. Matt Dominguez would be a real nice pickup. Blake Beavan, Phillippe Aumont and Jarrod Parker look like they'll be the top HS arms on the board when the Reds pick. Parker's fascinating. He's relatively local (northeast Indiana) and he throws as hard anyone in the draft and supposedly he's got a plus curve. He's 6'2" with a thin frame, so even if he continues to deal in the high 90s he could be around for #15.

    On the college pitcher side of things there's Nick Schmidt, he's a 6'7" southpaw with stuff and he's spent three years dealing against bats in the SEC (a notorious hitter's conference).

    Right now Dominguez, Parker and Schmidt are the three guys I'm most interested in.

    Parker plays at my old High School, so i've been getting updates on him. I guess first game of the year, he hit 97-98-97 on consecutive pitches. He since has pitched about 15 innings and has yet to allow a run.

    This has definitly opened the eyes of the scouts, and from what I hear, theres a good chance Parker wont still be around when we get to pick...

  16. #45
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Do we take either of these guys at #15?

    Jim Callis of BA posted his projected top 10.

    Callis has been pretty darn accurate the last several years at the top of the draft.

    1 - Price
    2 - Detwiler
    3 - Wieters
    4 - Vitters
    5 - Moskos
    6 - Porcello
    7 - Bumgarner
    8 - Heyward
    9 - Beavan
    10 - Mills

    Here is the link for his full rationale of why he thinks who will go where
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/onlin...es/263794.html


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