Wednesday 4-25 minor league updates (Bailey Pitching)

[lollipopcurve]

So far, so good for Homer in AAA.

[HBP]

Two ways to view Homer's pitching so far I guess,

Glass half-full: He's becoming a very effective pitcher even without the K's

Half-empty: The lack of K's will catch up and the ERA will eventually go up

IMO the K's will increase and we'll start to see Homer Bailey version.2006.

[TRF]

I look at Bailey differently than most I guess. Half the board is clamoring for him now, the other half around the ASB.

I'd leave him at AAA all year. Dumatrait and Livingston, if they both continue to pitch like they are right now, should be the first to get the call. I can wait until 2008 for Bailey. Especially if it means he is developing as a pitcher. But this season to date, he has not outpitched Dumatrait, and has only pitched a little better than Livingston.

[Jefferson24]

I would like to see him up later in the year if the Reds are out of it. If you wait till next spring there will be more pressure on him. If the Reds are 15 games below .500 and out of the race then bring him up, let him make the transition in less meaningful games. At least it would help put butts in the seats late in the season.

This is contingent on him having innings left. I'm sure he'll once again be limited to a certain amount of innings this year. If he hits that in August calling him up in September wouldn't be smart.

[UC_Ken]

Unearned runs show he isnt dominating? how? His defense screwing up has no bearing on him not dominating. I would say that his 5.06 Hits per 9 innings shows that he is dominating. Think about that number for a second.

I agree that unearned runs don't necessarily mean that the pitcher is not dominating. However it could mean that the pitcher was not able to make up for his defenses' mistakes. If a fielder boots a ball with two outs and the next hitter blasts a HR then there are no earned runs but it should still reflect negatively on the pitcher.

Some unearned runs shouldn't be a negative reflection on the pitcher but many times they should. I didn't see the game so I don't know about this situation.

[dougdirt]

I look at Bailey differently than most I guess. Half the board is clamoring for him now, the other half around the ASB.

I'd leave him at AAA all year. Dumatrait and Livingston, if they both continue to pitch like they are right now, should be the first to get the call. I can wait until 2008 for Bailey. Especially if it means he is developing as a pitcher. But this season to date, he has not outpitched Dumatrait, and has only pitched a little better than Livingston.

I am with you on this one. If the Reds dont absolutely need him, which right now they dont, leave him down all year and get him ready to pitch next year. Dumatrait and Livingston are both pitching decent to great (Dumatrait) and there is no need to rush Homer if there are other options available.

[Superdude]

I would say that his 5.06 Hits per 9 innings shows that he is dominating. Think about that number for a second.

Bailey has a K rate dipping below 6 and a walk rate approaching 4. That hit rate and WHIP will jump big time unless he gets better or stays extremely lucky. Don't get me wrong, I think Bailey will come around, but he's hardly been dominant.

[membengal]

Superdude, unless you are privy to information I am not, it is pretty easy to guess as reasons why that might be. IF the team continues to instruct him to work on his change-up and hold back on pumping that fastball, his K rate is going to fall as he works on command and familiarity with his third pitch. I don't see anything in what he is getting done that makes me think he needs to "come around". I think he is doing what he has been told, and, as a consequence, is making the progress the club is asking he make...

[Aronchis]

Bailey has a K rate dipping below 6 and a walk rate approaching 4. That hit rate and WHIP will jump big time unless he gets better or stays extremely lucky. Don't get me wrong, I think Bailey will come around, but he's hardly been dominant.

Hits are a good indicator as it means nobody is touching you a good deal and speak to future success. The lack of k's and rise in bb's, is most likely do from throwing his fastball to high and not locating his curve well enough against the AAA level. Bailey struggled last year early in high-A with more k's, and a couple of gem starts to June when it came together but he had some terrible starts those first 2 months. Sounds like to me, he is older and more mature, but isn't exactly feeling it right now.

Considering he is virtually impossible to callup before June 1st, he has plenty of breathing room. If he starts getting 10k's a game after June 1st great, if he doesn't and needs another offseason to work on some things, great also. The Reds aren't going anywhere in a hurry. Numbers are nice, but "tools" are to. Put them together: Numbers+Projection, make a sound decision.

[dougdirt]

I am working on something for Bailey right now, so expect it later tonight or tomorrow.

SD, His walk rate is high due to his first two games in 40 degree weather. While I am not sure the weather had anything to do with it, he has walked just 3 batters his last 11 innings. Of course, his strikeouts have dropped as well.

[thorn]

Bailey has a K rate dipping below 6 and a walk rate approaching 4. That hit rate and WHIP will jump big time unless he gets better or stays extremely lucky. Don't get me wrong, I think Bailey will come around, but he's hardly been dominant.

Are you saying that only a strike out is a "Good Out" while GO's and FO's are lucky? Granted GO's and FO's have a greater chance of falling for hits, but that don't mean the pitcher is "Lucky" when they don't, it's called skill, not luck. A ground ball pitcher can locate his pitch and have a hitter ground out to the location he wants them to, it's not always controlled by the batter, thus it's not luck. Maybe this is what Homer's doing, working on off speed stuff to help his chances in the majors, cause we know having a good fastball is not enough, espically for starters.

[OnBaseMachine]

Joey Votto finished the day at 1-for-3 with a single and walk. His OBP is now up to a solid .366 and his SLG sits at .400 for a .766 OPS. He's raised his OPS .144 points in two games.

Burton: 2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K

Jay Bruce is back in the lineup tonight for Sarasota.

[OnBaseMachine]

Found this report on Bailey from someone who attended his start today:

Watching Homer Bailey In Louisville
Posted By: Lisa Cornwell

Homer is starting on the mound for Triple-A Louisville today. We'll give you an inning-by-inning update...

1st Inning - 3 up and 3 down for Homer. He threw a mean 73 mph curve ball to strike out the second batter he faced. That's what the Reds are looking for from him. If he can master his off-speed pitches like that, it won't be long before we see him in the big leagues.

2nd Inning - The first out was a simple comebacker for Homer. He allowed his first hit of the game on the next man he faced. Homer's showing some good movement on his fastball. On to the bottom of the frame. Still just one hit for the visiting Richmond Braves.

3rd Inning - Another 3 up, 3 down performance for Homer, although Jeff Keppinger just saved hit #2 of the day. The second baseman looked like Michael Jordan jumping for that one. Homer's numbers as of now: 1 hit, no runs, 2 K's, no walks.

4th Inning - The lead off man got under Homer's fastball and hit a liner to left. It should have easily been caught but an error in the outfield resulted in a triple. A sac-fly was next, scoring the runner on third... 1-0 Braves. The second out of the inning came from a grounder to short. The following man at the plate again got under Bailey's pitch, and the right fielder couldn't make the running catch. It was stand-up double that scored another... 2-0 Braves. Homer allowed one more double before the end of the top half of the inning. A total of 3 hits and 2 runs have been given up so far by Bailey.

5th Inning - Not a great start for Homer in the 5th. He walked the lead-off man in just 5 pitches. Batter #2... a pop-out to center. Hey, there's DeWayne Wise making the catch. A sacrifice bunt got the second out of the inning. So, with a man on second and two out... all of the Spring Training PFP pays off... the first baseman makes the stop and tosses it to Bailey, who tags first for the out. Still 2-0 Braves.

6th Inning - Still 2-0 Braves. A simple ground-out to second retires the first batter. The second man up sent a bullet toward the gap, but the shortstop was quick to cut it off... 2 outs, nobody on base. Hang on, though... A solo-shot just went over the wall in left center. Bailey has now given up two homeruns this season. 3-0 Braves through the top half of the 6th.

Dan Conway is pinch-hitting for Homer in the bottom of the 6th, so that's all we'll see from the 20-year-old pitcher today. His final game numbers from the mound: 6.0 IP, 3 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K.

Homer threw 92 pitches... 57 of those were for strikes.

http://www.wcpo.com/news/local/story...a-aaa0a04ef0e4

[dougdirt]

Sarasota update

Richie Gardner is through 3 innings, 1 hit, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts. 1.89 ERA right now.

[dougdirt]

Sarasota update

I must have jinxed Richie, 4ip, 2h, 2bb, 1er, 2k. Sarasota trails 1-0 in the middle of the 4th.