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Thread: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

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    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    5-24-07 update

    Top Reds Prospects - stock report (non-pitcher)

    1. Jay Bruce-OF (Hi A) .1.048 OPS.....age: 20.2....Stock: CAN IT GET HIGHER?....ETA: Sometime in 2008
    2. Joey Votto-1B (AAA) .909 OPS.....age: 23.8....Stock: RISING....ETA: Any day
    3. Chris Valaika-2B/3B (Low A) .897 OPS.....age: 21.10....Stock: holding steady....ETA: Sept-2008
    4. Drew Stubbs-OF (Low A) .794 OPS.....age: 22.7....Stock: holding steady....ETA: 2009
    5. Juan Francisco-3B (Low A) .785 OPS.....age: 20.0....Stock: holding steady....ETA: 2010
    6. Adam Rosales-UTIL (Hi A) .919 OPS.....age: 24.0....Stock: holding steady....ETA: 2008 (or never)
    7. Paul Janish-SS (AA) .776 OPS.....age: 24.8....Stock: slowly rising....ETA: 2008 (or never)
    8. Justin Turner-OF (Low A) .866 OPS....age: 22.6....Stock: slowly rising....ETA: 2009/2010
    9. Drew Anderson-OF (AA) .834 OPS....age: 24.4....Stock: slowly rising....ETA: 2009 (or never)
    10. Cody Strait-OF (AA) .714 OPS.....age: 24.0....Stock: Slow decline....ETA: 2008 (or never)

    Dropped out:
    Milton Loo, Chris Dickerson

    New to the list:
    Justin Turner, Drew Anderson

    Coming on strong (may make next list):
    Daniel Dorn...22.10 (.766 OPS - Hi A, 1.030 OPS in 246 PA's at Billings in '06), Chad Heisey...22.6 (.776 OPS - Low A, .762 OPS in 275 PA's at Billings in '06).



    Position breakdown:

    1B
    1. Joey Votto (AAA) .909 OPS.....age: 23.8....My adopted prospect is now crushing AAA pitching (as predicted) and should join the big club by September or hopefully sooner.
    2. Logan Parker (Low A) .637 OPS....age: 22.10....Needs a strong year in Dayton and a move up to Sarasota. Seems to be struggling a bit, at the moment. Ripped it up in his first year last year in rookie ball (Billings) to the tune of a .949 OPS in 277 PA's.
    Summary: Not much, but it doesn't take much to move a bat here anyway. Not a position of concern. How about drafting D'Allesio again with one of the 5 early picks?

    2B
    1. Chris Valaika (Low A) .897 OPS.....age: 21.10....Can rake. Is not a SS. How about 2B or 3B? Either way, he heads up both positions due to his stick. Bat has cooled a tad the past couple weeks. OPS of .907 in 307 PA's last year in Rookie ball (Billings).
    2. Drew Anderson (AA) .834 OPS.....age: 24.4....At 24 in AA and with B. Phillips firmly entrenched with the big club for a few more years, there's probably not too much of a future. AAAA ceiling. Now heating up. Has been moved into top 10 list. Go Bucks!
    3. Justin Turner (Low-A) .866 OPS.....age: 22.6....See above. As with Anderson, "Red" is on fire and moved into top 10 list. Also now ahead of Griffin on 2B list. OPS of .922 in 261 PA's last year in Rookie ball (Billings).
    4. Michael Griffin (Hi-A) .703 OPS.....age: 23.7....Don't know if there is a difference between he and Anderson, other than being at a lower level (although a year younger).
    Summary: Where will Valaika end up? 3B or 2B? If he's a 2-bagger, well, a decision will have to be made in Cincy by 2009. B. Phillips may have priced himself out of town by then anyway.

    SS
    1. Paul Janish (AA) .776 OPS.....age: 24.8....Good glove. Juan Castro-like ceiling. Will he ever try stepping onto the mound? Is his bat finally catching up to his glove? Solid May.
    Summary: Ouch. Hopefully we can develop a SS in Latin America or make it a priority in the draft. Who knows, maybe Gonzo can keep it up into his mid-30's.

    3B
    1. Chris Valaika (Low A) .897 OPS.....age: 21.10
    2. Juan Francisco (Low A) .785 OPS.....age: 20.0....Possibly the Johnny Cueto Latin American feel good story of 2007. Exciting future.
    3. Adam Rosales (Hi A) .919 OPS.....age: 24.0....This really needs to be his year to have any shot.
    Summary: See summary of 2B and replace Phillips with EE. Maybe Francisco makes this 2B/3B decision easier as well.


    OF
    1. Jay Bruce (Hi A) .1.048 OPS.....age: 20.2....What can I say? This kid is all dat. Prepare for his arrival.
    2. Drew Stubbs (Low A) .794 OPS.....age: 22.8....I'm a tad skeptical about the bat, but he's got a bit of everything else that will give him the opportunity. Grady Sizemore-lite ceiling. Don't hate, just a guess. Only put up an OPS of .768 in 251 PA's last year in Rookie ball (Billings).
    3. Cody Strait (AA) .714 OPS.....age: 24.0.
    4. Chris Dickerson (AAA) .676 OPS (AA), .516 (AAA).....age: 25.1....Just promoted to AAA.
    5. Daniel Dorn (Hi A) .766 OPS....age: 22.10....After slow start is heating up in May. Lead team with OPS of 1.030 in 246 PA's last year in Rookie ball (Billings).
    6. Chad Heisey (Low A) .806 OPS....age: 22.6....Only had OPS of .762 in 275 PA's last year in hitter friendly Pioneer Rookie League (Billings). Between last year and this year, has pretty much mirrored Stubbs at the plate.
    Summary: If Stubbs is the real deal, an OF of Hamilton, Bruce, and Stubbs is looking pretty good by 2008-2009.

    C
    1. -Craig Tatum (Hi A) .737 OPS.....age: 24.1....His glove buys him some time. If something better comes along in the meantime, so long.
    Summary: Will have to do some homework, but I see nothing right now that excites me. We'll see how Long and Rodriquez do and then have an idea. I think the position should be recognized early this June.

    updated: 5-24-07
    Last edited by BuckeyeRedleg; 05-25-2007 at 09:17 AM.

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  3. #2
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    Just chiming in here, but I am fairly certain that Adam Rosales hasnt smelled shortstop at all this season, and even if he had, he has never really projected there as his range is fairly poor. Great post though.

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    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    Thanks, Doug. Has he been at 3B? I'm assuming that, DH, or OF. I see Griffin has been playing 2B and Eymann at SS.

    Also, any idea what position Piepkorn's been playing. 1B?

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    He has actually seen a lot of time at 1B and DH. I dont know if he has something wrong with his arm or not. I know he did last season, which is why he spent some time at DH. Tonight, he is at 1B again. Piepkorn has played some 1B and DH as well.

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    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    Well, that bit of info may just remove him from the top 10.

    I'll have to have a beer and deliberate.

    Much thanks.

  7. #6
    Ya can't teach speed... Triples's Avatar
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    Interesting perspective, but really....all that after 24 games when a single at bat can make a 10 point swing in a batting average. Lets come back after 124 games and re-evaluate. Baseball is a marathon not a sprint. It will be interesting to see what some of the more experienced players will be doing in August and September having been through the grinder of 25 games in 30 days in 90 degree weather. Same goes for the younger guys who have haven't yet had to do that.

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Top Cincinnati Reds Prospects - stock report (non-pitcher)

    1. Jay Bruce-OF (Hi A) .914 OPS.....age: 20.1....Stock: Holding steady....ETA: Fall-2008
    2. Chris Valaika-2B/3B (Low A) .953 OPS.....age: 21.9....Stock: Rising....ETA: Fall-2008
    3. Joey Votto-1B (AAA) .766 OPS.....age: 23.7....Stock: Slow decline....ETA: Fall-2007
    4. Drew Stubbs-OF (Low A) .809 OPS.....age: 22.7....Stock: Holding steady....ETA: 2009
    5. Juan Francisco-3B (Low A) .850 OPS.....age: 19.11....Stock: Rising....ETA: 2010
    6. Milton Loo-3B (?).....age: 21.1....Stock: Holding steady....ETA: 2009
    7. Cody Strait-OF (AA) .721 OPS.....age: 23.11....Stock: Slow decline....ETA: 2008 (or never)
    8. Paul Janish-SS (Low A) .700 OPS.....age: 24.7....Stock: Slow decline....ETA: 2008 (or never)
    9. Adam Rosales-3B (Hi A) .779 OPS.....age: 23.11....Stock: Holding steady....ETA: 2008 (or never)
    10. Chris Dickerson-OF (AA) .693 OPS.....age: 25.0....Stock: Slow decline....ETA: 2008 (or never)


    "We ain't no spring chickens, but we ain't bad"....Would-be prospects if not for age

    -Dickerson (25.0), Janish (24.7), Rosales (23.11), and Strait (23.11) will soon join this list, unless they get hot really soon:

    -Jeremiah Piepkorn-IF (Hi A) .979 OPS.....age: 26.3
    -DeWayne Wise-OF (AAA) .957 OPS.....age: 29.2
    -Aaron Herr-3B (AAA) .919 OPS.....age: 26.2
    -Jay Garthwaite-OF (AA) .771 OPS.....age: 26.6
    -Enrique Cruz-SS (AA) .752 OPS.....age: 25.6

    "Time to move on"

    -B.J. Szymanski-OF (Hi A) .652 OPS.....age: 24.6 (4th year in the organization, out of college)
    -Craig Tatum-C (Hi A) .638 OPS.....age: 24.1 (4th year in the organization, out of college)
    -Drew Anderson-2B (AA) .656 OPS.....age: 24.3 (4th year in the organization, out of college)


    Position breakdown:

    1B
    1. Joey Votto (AAA) .766 OPS.....age: 23.7....Will begin crushing AAA pitching soon and join the big club by September.
    2. Logan Parker (Low A) .729 OPS....age: 22.10....Needs a strong year in Dayton and a move up to Sarasota.
    Summary: Not much here, but it doesn't take much to move a bat here anyway. Not a position of concern. How about drafting D'Allesio again with one of the 5 early picks?

    2B
    1. Chris Valaika (Low A) .953 OPS.....age: 21.9....Can rake. Is not a SS. How about 2B or 3B? Either way, he heads up both positions due to his stick.
    2. Drew Anderson (AA) .656 OPS.....age: 24.3....Not tearing it up, but with B. Phillips, not too much of a future anyway. AAAA ceiling.
    3. Michael Griffin (Hi-A) .708 OPS.....age: 23.6....Don't know if there is a differnce between he and Anderson, other than being at a lower level (although a year younger).
    4. Justin Turner (Low-A) .714 OPS.....age: 22.6....See above.
    Summary: Where will Valaika end up? 3B or 2B? If he's a 2-bagger, well, a decision will have to be made in Cincy by 2009. B. Phillips may have priced himself out of town by then anyway.

    SS
    1. Paul Janish (Low A) .700 OPS.....age: 24.7....Good glove. Juan Castro-like ceiling. Will he ever try stepping onto the mound? 2. Jeff Bannon (AAA) .681 OPS.....age: 27.9....AAA filler. Only Salmon (class of '99), Dunn, and Coffey ('98) have spent more time in the organization than he, J. Gutierrez, and Steve Kelly ('00).
    Summary: Ouch. Hopefully we can develop a SS in Latin America or make it a priority in the draft. Who knows, maybe "Seabass" can keep it up into his mid-30's (that was for you, 44).

    3B
    1. Chris Valaika (Low A) .953 OPS.....age: 21.9
    2. Milton Loo (extended ST?).....age: 21.1....Spent the past few years playing with wooden bats at Yavapai. No doubt, the kid can rake.
    3. Juan Francisco (Low A) .850 OPS.....age: 19.11....Possibly the Johnny Cueto L.A. feel good story of 2007. Exciting future.
    4. Adam Rosales (Hi A) .779 OPS.....age: 23.11....This really needs to be his year to have any shot.
    Summary: See summary of 2B and replace Phillips with EE. Maybe Francisco or Loo make this 2B/3B decision easier as well.


    OF
    1. Jay Bruce (Hi A) .914 OPS.....age: 20.1....What can I say? This kid is all dat. Prepare for his arrival.
    2. Drew Stubbs (Low A) .809 OPS.....age: 22.7....I'm a tad skeptical about the bat, but he's got a bit of everything else that will give him the opportunity. Grady Sizemore-lite ceiling. Don't hate, just a guess.
    3. Cody Strait (AA) .721 OPS.....age: 23.11....
    4. Chris Dickerson (AA) .693 OPS.....age: 25.0....
    Summary: If Stubbs is the real deal, an OF of Hamilton, Bruce, and Stubbs is looking pretty good by 2008-2009.

    C
    1. -Craig Tatum (Hi A) .638 OPS.....age: 24.1....His glove buys him some time. If something better comes along in the meatime, so long.
    Summary: Will have to do some homework, but I see nothing right now that excites me. We'll see how Long and Rodriquez do and then have an idea. I think the position should be recognized early this June.
    Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona. Not all holes, or games, are created equal. ~George Will


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    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    Quote Originally Posted by Triples View Post
    Interesting perspective, but really....all that after 24 games when a single at bat can make a 10 point swing in a batting average. Lets come back after 124 games and re-evaluate. Baseball is a marathon not a sprint. It will be interesting to see what some of the more experienced players will be doing in August and September having been through the grinder of 25 games in 30 days in 90 degree weather. Same goes for the younger guys who have haven't yet had to do that.
    I agree with your point about sample size, however, this list is not solely determined on how they are doing this year. It's a combination of other factors plus this current season. It will be updated throughout the season to reflect what I feel is the top 10 (non-pitching prospects) at that given time.

    As you can see, the list is not just players that are hot right now. All of these guys (with the exception of Francisco) would have made the top 10 in March. Maybe just a different order now, but nothing too extreme. Danny Dorn may be the only one that would have been on the list, but his disastrous first month in Sarasota, makes it hard to justify putting him in the top 10 right now.

    With all that said, I have updated the list.
    Last edited by BuckeyeRedleg; 04-30-2007 at 11:18 PM.

  9. #8
    johnmadden9
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    piepkorn up to chatanooga AA!, keep on working man

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    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    List updated.

    Rosales makes the jump. Janish and Strait are just hanging on. The draft and development of some younger kids may eventually knock Dickerson, Janish, and Strait out by mid-summer.

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    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    I would also add a couple of level adjustments to what you have listed - Janish is in AA, Dickerson is in AAA. Otherwise good stuff.

    I'd love to see Piepkorn work his way up at least to AAA - gotta love the undrafted players making some noise.

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    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcclain19 View Post
    I would also add a couple of level adjustments to what you have listed - Janish is in AA, Dickerson is in AAA. Otherwise good stuff.
    Thank you. Corrected and updated.

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    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    At some point, doesn't Loo have to stop being a hypothetical to actually make any such lists? Like, ya know, play and stuff?

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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    At some point, doesn't Loo have to stop being a hypothetical to actually make any such lists? Like, ya know, play and stuff?
    Kinda like the ghost runners we used to argue about in our backyard baseball games? Those dudes were fast, and they always scored from 2nd on base hits.

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    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    So do we have to add EE to this list somewhere?

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    Re: BuckeyeRedleg's Down on the Farm stock report (non-pitchers)

    How do Francisco and Valaika project defensively at 3B? I realize Valaika hasnt played there but wondering if he doesnt project at SS because of a lack of range or a lack of defensive ability generally


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