I made the analogy to chasing in a game thread but it wasn't blackjack, it was poker. Chasing in poker is a much more accurate analogy than chasing in gambling imo.
When certain people hit a losing streak, they start making bad plays based on their gut that go completely against the all too well known odds (chasing). You often here phrases like "I'm due" or "I'm feeling lucky". They chase draws because they "feel" they'l get the card they need etc. It works in the short term every now and then, never in the long term
In baseball terms its putting a well known low OBP player like Gonzalez in an impact lineup spot while he's "hot" and hoping you'll be able to spot the trend quick enough when he cools off. If he takes an 0 for 5 on Tuesday has he cooled off or do you bat him 5th again? If he has another bad night how long untill you "know" he's cooled off? How many runs does it cost untill we find out? Then you move him and he goes 4 for 4, is he hot again? How long untill you "know"?
I believe you take your best players based mostly on OBP and hit them in the same spot for long periods of time letting the odds work in your favor. I have more faith in big numbers than JN's gut or clairvoyance.
That said, I agree with the SABR guys who say lineups don't really matter so its really a moot point from a production point of view. It does however, give insight into the mental makeup of our manager.