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Thread: Josh, Austin and April '07...

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Alot has happened thats positive and alot has happened that's cause for concern with the Reds in April but i'd like to focus on the biggest story of their season so far.

    I took a look at early league leaders in VORP and a few familiar names popped up:

    VORP mlb for RF in '07:
    1. Vlad: 15.6
    2. S. Green: 11.1
    3. M. Ordonez: 9.3
    4. J. Hamilton: 8.9
    9. A. Kearns: 4.3

    Now there's immediately a caveat. Hamilton is listed as a RF because that's the position he's had the most defesive innings at but he's played 9 games in right, 6 in center and 6 in left. VORP is weighted for positional playing time in cases where a player plays multiple positions so it's a little like apples and oranges to compare Josh to RFers. However, suffice it to say that his bat in April has been an unmitigated success.

    Also note that Kearns shows up in the top ten of all major league right fielders. He quietly had a very solid April for Washington putting up a line of .272/.350/.446 while playing the majority of his April games in a pit for hitters (translates roughly into .289/.369/.486 in GABP)

    How would the outfield look with Kearns in right, Hamilton in center and Dunn in left with Freel playing supersub between the OF and 3b?

    Anyway, hat's off to a great first month of what will hopefully be a long career for Josh Hamilton....

    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #2
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    What is VORP?
    Most Vottomatic Player

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    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Imagine if both of those guys were in this outfield?




    Sorry

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    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
    What is VORP?
    Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

    Actually, showing Hamilton's RF VORP would give him the lowest of the 3. I would imagine the offensive numbers for RF'ers across the board are higher than LF or CF. So his VORP would go up if he were listed at either of those.

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    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    How would the outfield look with Kearns in right, Hamilton in center and Dunn in left with Freel playing supersub between the OF and 3b?

    Yeah but then the bullpen wouldn't be nearly as good.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by degenerate10 View Post
    What is VORP?
    Sorry. VORP=value over replacement level player (in runs; generally 10 runs= 1 win). It's a measure of a player's offensive contribution over what a team could expect by plucking any freely available player from the minors to play the same position. So the higher the VORP, the more valuable the player's bat has been.

    VORP can be found on the baseball prospectus web sight.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    Imagine if both of those guys were in this outfield?




    Sorry
    ya...the fact that Kearns is right handed wasn't lost on me....

    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Actually, showing Hamilton's RF VORP would give him the lowest of the 3. I would imagine the offensive numbers for RF'ers across the board are higher than LF or CF. So his VORP would go up if he were listed at either of those.
    The corner positions are roughly similar offensively across the majors but the fact the Hamilton can play center as well means he's more valubale than a corner outfielder with a similar VORP like you say...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The corner positions are roughly similar offensively across the majors but the fact the Hamilton can play center as well means he's more valubale than a corner outfielder with a similar VORP like you say...
    Not only that, but he doesn't just "play" center like some guys do (Soriano). He plays center very well.

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    Can he be stopped?
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Actually, showing Hamilton's RF VORP would give him the lowest of the 3. I would imagine the offensive numbers for RF'ers across the board are higher than LF or CF. So his VORP would go up if he were listed at either of those.

    It was always my perception that LF was where you stashed the big bats. Maybe I'm biased with Dunn and a guy by the name of Bonds being prominent examples in my mind, but LF is where poor defense will hurt you the least, so you stash your big bopper with porous defense there.
    Tom Shearn... who knew?

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dunner44 View Post
    It was always my perception that LF was where you stashed the big bats. Maybe I'm biased with Dunn and a guy by the name of Bonds being prominent examples in my mind, but LF is where poor defense will hurt you the least, so you stash your big bopper with porous defense there.
    If you're stashing bats here's the order you try to do it: DH then 1b then LF then RF (because of arm strength issues).

    Basically a poor defensive outfielder with a good arm generally goes to right while the poor defensive outfielder with a weaker arm goes to left. In '06, here were the mlb averages for those positions:

    DH: .261/.356/.485 (AL only)
    1B: .282/.358/.483
    LF: .276/.348/.456
    RF: .277/.345/.458
    CF: .267/.332/.425
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    If you're stashing bats here's the order you try to do it: DH then 1b then LF then RF (because of arm strength issues).

    Basically a poor defensive outfielder with a good arm generally goes to right while the poor defensive outfielder with a weaker arm goes to left. In '06, here were the mlb averages for those positions:

    DH: .261/.356/.485 (AL only)
    1B: .282/.358/.483
    LF: .276/.348/.456
    RF: .277/.345/.458
    CF: .267/.332/.425
    Usually, but if you have a real butcher out there at 1b, he can kill the whole IF. LF is safer for a guy who can't field. 1B is better for guys who simply can't run but have no problem catching the ball. As I have posted before, there is a reason guys as bad as Thome and Ortiz aren't even allowed to play 1B in NL parks, why Giambi isn't put at 1b to get Cabrera in the line-up, and why Manny Ramirez is still in LF and not 1B. A bad 1B does a ton of damage.

    I personally think Adam Dunn belongs in this category.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dunner44 View Post
    It was always my perception that LF was where you stashed the big bats. Maybe I'm biased with Dunn and a guy by the name of Bonds being prominent examples in my mind, but LF is where poor defense will hurt you the least, so you stash your big bopper with porous defense there.
    Hmmm, interesting, I always thought it was RF, with less balls being hit there. I guess the stats JoJo posted prove otherwise.

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    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Hmmm, interesting, I always thought it was RF, with less balls being hit there. I guess the stats JoJo posted prove otherwise.

    The fundamental reason (as it was always told to me) you need a solid defender in RF is to keep runners from taking 3rd as much as possible. Thus the need for your cannon arm to be over there.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Josh, Austin and April '07...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Usually, but if you have a real butcher out there at 1b, he can kill the whole IF. LF is safer for a guy who can't field. 1B is better for guys who simply can't run but have no problem catching the ball. As I have posted before, there is a reason guys as bad as Thome and Ortiz aren't even allowed to play 1B in NL parks, why Giambi isn't put at 1b to get Cabrera in the line-up, and why Manny Ramirez is still in LF and not 1B. A bad 1B does a ton of damage.

    I personally think Adam Dunn belongs in this category.
    Thome has played over 1100 games at first the majority of which occurred in the AL. He has never played an outfield position. The main reasons he is now a DH are two-fold: 1. A fellow named Konerko and, 2. Thome's back issues.

    Ortiz doesn't play first because well he's not good enough to play anywhere. Manny also has no business with a glove on his hand. The fact that he stays in left is a testament to some of the DHs he's played along side. Manny is one of the rarer occurrences where he probably could do more damage at first than in left.

    The defensive spectrum looks like this:
    1b-LF-RF-3B-CF-2b-ss-c

    The idea being that the positions are more difficult to play as you go right on the spectrum with positions on the far right considered premium defensive positions (i.e. the pool of players good enough to play them well is relatively smaller as you go right). Therefore players generally move from right to left during their career (i.e. turning a 1b into an outfielder is generally considered an unsound idea).

    This is why DH/1b has greater production than ss or C. Positions on the left are easier to play therefore the pool of players capable of playing them is larger so there is a greater chance of finding a better bat.

    As with everything, a roster is a cumulative beast of trade offs and compromises. For instance if you have a firstbaseman as stellar as Olerud with the glove, you deal with a less than stellar left fielder.

    But in general, if you can't play a passable first base then you either aren't dedicated to the cause or you really have no business putting on a glove.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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