I get the whole defensive spectrum thing and its a good guideline, but in general its easier to catch a fly ball than to dig a throw out of the dirt. What the stats may not show is that poor play at 1B usually is reflected in the error rate of the rest of the IF or the BABIP of the pitching staff who give up IF hits on ground outs that aren't completed when the throw isn't handled on a close play. A poor LF really only has an impact on balls hit to LF and doesn't have much effect on the other defenders. Obviously the OF requires more range to play well and a slow OF could benefit from a move to 1B (i.e.Griffey) but there is a particular type of player who will do less damage in LF than he would at 1B even though 1B is "easier" from the standpoint of covering ground.
I happen to think that Adam Dunn is one of those players and I shudder at the number of errors we'd see at the 2B, SS and 3B positions with him over there. Simply running the playbook dictated by the defensive spectrum will lead to the wrong decision in some cases. I for one am glad that the Adam Dunn to 1B experiment came to an end prior to any regular season games. The times I've seen him there he's been brutal and does much more harm than when he plays LF.
I agree with the assessment that if you can't play 1B you should probably be a DH, but there is no DH in the NL and this team's top threat needs to be in LF IMO.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I added the bit about the defensive spectrum to give context to the production data earlier in the thread it wasn't in response to your specific comment per se... I'm trying not to hog the thread
I agree with most of what you say really.... I just think that if Dunn can't play first, it's because he doesn't want too.... that's just my personal opinion though...
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Remember, if you have Austin Kearns, you don't have Josh Hamilton.
I'd prefer Hamilton's upside than Kearns.
Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.
I think we'd have drafted Josh regardless. He was picked up as a fifth outfielder, after all.
Makes all the routine posts.
RF is where you stash crappy players in little league (like someone stated previously) because most hitters are RH, and you don't see too many players "hitting the other way" (opposite field). Usually at about the high school level the crappy RFer thing goes away.
Also, I think the better-crappy fielders go to RF because there are alot of line drives and bloop hits that go to RF that are pretty hard to judge while as LF usually just gets liners down the line or pop ups.
You stick the worst OF in RF in beer leauge softball as well.
I think that OF would look great. Unfortunately you still have Ken Griffey, Jr. on this team. Since there are already 2 first basemen and no DHs, and since Kearns is mainly a RFer, you are going to have Jr. in the lineup manning center field. Now Freel doesn't play so much and neither does Josh. It's a nice fantasy but that's all it is.
Being traded to the Nats may have been the best thing to happen to Kearns. Small sample size but he's doing quite well over there. I think expectations were always too high for him over here. He's a Kentucky boy who was a 1st round choice who had all the tools and when was hurt or slumped he became a disappointment to the organization and to the fans who maybe expected too much from him. Now he's somewhere where he doesn't have a lot of expectations. He's not from the organization, he didn't cost much and he's not playing in front of friends and relatives 81 games a year.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.
I've played every position in my years of baseball, but those days ended in high school, so I'm by no means an expert, so take it for what it's worth. I would say that fielding fly balls are much trickier than picking throws at first. Flies to the outfield can take on a life of their own on a windy day, and then there are the line drives that slice away from you. At first, most throws are coming right at you with relatively little movement. While you do get the occassional throw in the dirt at first, a lot of throws that miss are off either to the side or above. Dunn is a huge guy and is going to get to balls that would pull smaller guys off the bag. So I would guess that what you lose in errant throws in the dirt, you make up for in fewer balls going over his head or off to the side. The thought of a shorty like Valentin playing first worries me more than a big guy like Dunn.
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