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Thread: Run differential in the NL Central

  1. #1
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Run differential in the NL Central

    Check out some of these stats from our wonderful NL Central division:

    The Brewers, the division leader's at 14-9, have been outscored 112-107.

    The 2nd place Pirates have been outscored 95-78. Our 3rd place Redlegs are around the middle of the pack, having been outscored 104-100, and the Astros have been outscored 101-98.

    These final two really intrigue me. The defending world champion Cardinals (granted, with Carpenter out and Pujols not playing as he normally does) have been outscored 104-81, and as you all know they're 10-13.

    And now, for something that really blew me away: the last place Cubs have OUTSCORED their opponents by a 110-88 margin. What an absolutely insane divisional race so far.

    If the runs scored and runs allowed differentials stay at this pace for the rest of the season, history seems to indicate that the Cubs will be near the top at season's end.

    Then again, last year's Indians outscored their opponents by almost 100 runs, yet still finished in 4th place, 6 games under .500. What a weird sport baseball can be.

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    Re: Run differential in the NL Central

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    Check out some of these stats from our wonderful NL Central division:

    The Brewers, the division leader's at 14-9, have been outscored 112-107.

    The 2nd place Pirates have been outscored 95-78. Our 3rd place Redlegs are around the middle of the pack, having been outscored 104-100, and the Astros have been outscored 101-98.

    These final two really intrigue me. The defending world champion Cardinals (granted, with Carpenter out and Pujols not playing as he normally does) have been outscored 104-81, and as you all know they're 10-13.

    And now, for something that really blew me away: the last place Cubs have OUTSCORED their opponents by a 110-88 margin. What an absolutely insane divisional race so far.

    If the runs scored and runs allowed differentials stay at this pace for the rest of the season, history seems to indicate that the Cubs will be near the top at season's end.

    Then again, last year's Indians outscored their opponents by almost 100 runs, yet still finished in 4th place, 6 games under .500. What a weird sport baseball can be.
    Few things I pull from this: the Astros are actually pretty good. And should be better with the return of Jennings.

    The Reds offense is decent and should get better.

    The Cubs play in a nice home park for pitchers, but Rich Hill and Ted Lilly aren't as good as their early season success. However, Soriano should get better offensively, so it's really hard to tell where the Cubs will end up.

    The Cardinals are in trouble if they don't get Carpenter back.

  4. #3
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Run differential in the NL Central

    I think there have been so few games, that a few lopsided games can really skew things at this point. This will be more meaningful around Memorial Day.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #4
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Run differential in the NL Central

    And Runs Scored don't take into account that the Cubs are losers. The curse lives.

  6. #5
    Member mroby85's Avatar
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    Re: Run differential in the NL Central

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    And Runs Scored don't take into account that the Cubs are losers. The curse lives.
    i swear every year i think they're going to be good, i guess ill learn eventually.

  7. #6
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    Re: Run differential in the NL Central

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think there have been so few games, that a few lopsided games can really skew things at this point. This will be more meaningful around Memorial Day.
    Good point. I'm a believer in the Pythagorean Theorem, but the margin of error with the current sample size is still pretty high.
    Not all who wander are lost

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    Re: Run differential in the NL Central

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    Good point. I'm a believer in the Pythagorean Theorem, but the margin of error with the current sample size is still pretty high.
    Of course. The bigger the sample, typically the more accurate the measurement.

    Still, there are some conclusions to be drawn from some data.

    The Pirates' offense isn't going to wake up and become good.

    The Brewers' offense isn't going to wake up and become bad.

    For example.

  9. #8
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    Re: Run differential in the NL Central

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    Check out some of these stats from our wonderful NL Central division:

    The Brewers, the division leader's at 14-9, have been outscored 112-107.

    The 2nd place Pirates have been outscored 95-78. Our 3rd place Redlegs are around the middle of the pack, having been outscored 104-100, and the Astros have been outscored 101-98.

    These final two really intrigue me. The defending world champion Cardinals (granted, with Carpenter out and Pujols not playing as he normally does) have been outscored 104-81, and as you all know they're 10-13.

    And now, for something that really blew me away: the last place Cubs have OUTSCORED their opponents by a 110-88 margin. What an absolutely insane divisional race so far.

    If the runs scored and runs allowed differentials stay at this pace for the rest of the season, history seems to indicate that the Cubs will be near the top at season's end.

    Then again, last year's Indians outscored their opponents by almost 100 runs, yet still finished in 4th place, 6 games under .500. What a weird sport baseball can be.

    At this point we have only seen the Reds play 8 teams out of the 15 in the league, 76% of all the teams games have been against fellow NL Central foes, the run differential in that case stands at 94 - 85 and the record is 10-9. In that time the Reds have scored 5 runs 12 times, the opponents 11 times. Against the division the Reds are 5-5 at home and 5-4 on the road.

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    Re: Run differential in the NL Central

    Now they are at an even 109-109.

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    Re: Run differential in the NL Central

    Someone asked to see the run differentials in the NL Central around Memorial Day for a larger sample size...

    Chicago Cubs - 231-211 (+20)
    Milwaukee Brewers - 239-232 (+7)
    Cincinnati Reds - 249-276 (-27)
    Pittsburgh Pirates - 216-243 (-27)
    Houston Astros - 202-245 (-43)
    St. Louis Cardinals - 179-245 (-66)

    So you statistical experts, what do these numbers tell us this time? I'm no expert but it tells me that the division is putrid. I thought that the Cubs might become the team to beat this summer but then I remembered that they're the Cubs...
    "In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
    -Walt Whitman

  12. #11
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Run differential in the NL Central

    Well when the Reds play, lots of runs are put on the board...for and against!

    The Cardinals are really beating their expectation, they should be 18 - 32. The Cubs are underperforming and should be 27 - 24. The Reds are a little unlucky and should actually have 3 more wins.

  13. #12
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Run differential in the NL Central

    It tells me that only the Cubs and Brewers deserve to have records above .500 and that the Cardinals are horrendous. The Reds are playing a little under their heads.


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