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Thread: Managing ain't what it used to be

  1. #31
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    No one is saying it should be or even will be a perm slot for AG......why do you think that? Just beacuse it is AG you are upset about it? If it was EE ...or Conine who got hot would you complain then?

    Probably about Conine but not about EE?

    So far this year...AG looks like a better OBP than we might have imagined...but this is April and it could pass in a few days....of course people will be posting to move him down after his first bad AB...or game.

    Dunn seems to have these hot Aprils and then cools down...especially last year. This year he is already cooling down before April is out.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    It's not that it will be permanent, it's that it should not have happened once, much less three days running. I am saying that Gonzalez's bat, on balance, doesn't need to be in such a high leverage spot. Period. EE, Conine, Dunn, Phillips, whoever else, I don't care, just put Gonzalez at 7th and let him be who he is. But don't put him in spots where his general offensive inconsistency is magnified. Just don't.

  4. #33
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62 View Post
    No offense, but that blackjack analogy is simply terrible.
    I'm going to disagree with you, but not because I don't believe in "playing the hot hand", but that I think Narron changes the lineup so much that it all becomes meaningless. I don't think it's necessarily good for some players as well.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  5. #34
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    People talk about the black hole at 7-8-9...heck 6-7-8-9 are black holes this year...on this team.......I know i would rather have Phillips and Dunn switch...but you have to do something to end the bad back end of this hitting lineup.

    It is the liek the back end of the reds rotation from 2001-2005.

  6. #35
    Hisssssssss Yachtzee's Avatar
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62 View Post
    No offense, but that blackjack analogy is simply terrible.

    The Reds moved Alex up when they saw that he was locked in.

    Look at his splits since St. Louis. He's been tearing the cover off the ball.

    And stats aren't the only factor used to make these decisions. Very often a player can be raking but be BABIP unlucky. You're rarely playing exactly the way your numbers reflect. A .300 hitter doesn't always hit .300. He has hot and cold streaks. That's why advance scouting is so important. You want to know who's hot and who's not at the CURRENT TIME.

    It's the difference between macro and micro evaluation. Both have their place. You have to take full advantage of the times when a player is hot to get the full effect of his abilities. That's one reason changing lineups around doesn't bother me much.
    I didn't think the blackjack theory was all that bad. I think looking at splits and all are good. I have no problem with moving a guy up in the line up if he has a history of hitting a team or a particular pitcher well. I think it's good to adapt your lineup taking into consideration of whether you're facing a righty or a lefty.

    However, I'm not a fan of moving a guy up just because he's got a "hot bat," especially if he's not normally a good hitter. I feel that when you do that, you are essentially reacting to short term results without considering likely future performance. If you move a guy up because he appears "locked in," how long do you keep him up there while he reverts back to his norm? Assuming guys hit in hot and cold cycles, by the time you realize someone has a "hot bat," he's already getting close to the high point in the cycle or else he has already started his decline back towards the mean.
    Burn down the disco. Hang the blessed DJ. Because the music that he constantly plays, it says nothing to me about my life.

  7. #36
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    It's not that it will be permanent, it's that it should not have happened once, much less three days running. I am saying that Gonzalez's bat, on balance, doesn't need to be in such a high leverage spot. Period. EE, Conine, Dunn, Phillips, whoever else, I don't care, just put Gonzalez at 7th and let him be who he is. But don't put him in spots where his general offensive inconsistency is magnified. Just don't.
    You're not making sense. You're saying "I don't care if he is hot or not. Historically he is a weak bat." So what? Right now, he is not displaying offensive inconsistency, but just the opposite. Therefore, a manager would be stupid to not only recognize that, but to also place that hitter, especially when your entire offense is struggling to produce runs, and even on a temporary basis, in that high leverage spot to take advantage of it. And the opposite has also been true....When a player slumps, and is having a hard time fighting his way out of it, managers have moved that guy down in the batting order on a temporary basis. Anything wrong with that? Currently, Dunn is the epitome of an inconsistent bat. He is not producing. It will change. That's why lineups aren't written in stone.

    But right now, I could care less if it's Gonzo, Castro, or Narron's mother, that is holding the hot bat. I'd rather see them in that upper part of the order, as long as they are producing, then EE right now, who has a .192 BA .272 OB% .205 SLG = .477 OPS.

    Right now, EE is over matched IMO, and I don't think we need to be patient and leave him there to fight out of this thing. Why? It's costing us, and there are others who are producing. You play him every day to give him the ABs/experience; but move him down in the order until he starts to show signs he is coming out of it.

    But it seems you're saying you'd go with a set lineup, etched in stone, unalterable ever, and "damn the torpedos, full speed ahead, regardless of the outcome."
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  8. #37
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    And MWM.... that was an excellent post. I just wish someone would explain to me, because it is always used in a negative way what connotates "old school"? If it's trying to manage the game today like 30-40 years ago, and beyond, then I would agree.

    But sometimes I'd like to punch Michael Lewis in the mouth!
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  9. #38
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    You're not making sense. You're saying "I don't care if he is hot or not. Historically he is a weak bat." So what? Right now, he is not displaying offensive inconsistency, but just the opposite. Therefore, a manager would be stupid to not only recognize that, but to also place that hitter, especially when your entire offense is struggling to produce runs, and even on a temporary basis, in that high leverage spot to take advantage of it. And the opposite has also been true....When a player slumps, and is having a hard time fighting his way out of it, managers have moved that guy down in the batting order on a temporary basis. Anything wrong with that? Currently, Dunn is the epitome of an inconsistent bat. He is not producing. It will change. That's why lineups aren't written in stone.

    But right now, I could care less if it's Gonzo, Castro, or Narron's mother, that is holding the hot bat. I'd rather see them in that upper part of the order, as long as they are producing, then EE right now, who has a .192 BA .272 OB% .205 SLG = .477 OPS.

    Right now, EE is over matched IMO, and I don't think we need to be patient and leave him there to fight out of this thing. Why? It's costing us, and there are others who are producing. You play him every day to give him the ABs/experience; but move him down in the order until he starts to show signs he is coming out of it.

    But it seems you're saying you'd go with a set lineup, etched in stone, unalterable ever, and "damn the torpedos, full speed ahead, regardless of the outcome."
    But in order to take full advantage of "hot bats," doesn't it require a bit of clairvoyance to determine who's going to get hot and who's starting a slump? How do you know when a guy is about to cool off and when someone else is about to break out? Moving guys around based on who's hot and who's not seems like you're going to be behind the curve more often than not. I think if someone displays consistent results, move them up. However, if it's likely a guy is having a hot series, it's probably better to leave him where he is.
    Burn down the disco. Hang the blessed DJ. Because the music that he constantly plays, it says nothing to me about my life.

  10. #39
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Ah, the "do the right things" cult. I yield. By all means, let's put a horrific OBP/OPS guy on balance 5th as punishment because of the "do the right things" alleged shortcomings of this team. Awesome.
    You don't get it. If he's hot, ride him till he's not and then put him back when he cools off. It's all about who is producing right now on a team that is struggling offensively. Sometimes you have to get out of the book and into what's really happening on the field. Is Gonzalez going to put up the numbers over the entire season. Very, very doubtful, but I certainly don't have a problem taking advantage of the production while it's there. Your crappy "cult" argument is nothing but a poor defense of a bad position.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
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  11. #40
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    Quote Originally Posted by Yachtzee View Post
    But in order to take full advantage of "hot bats," doesn't it require a bit of clairvoyance to determine who's going to get hot and who's starting a slump? How do you know when a guy is about to cool off and when someone else is about to break out? Moving guys around based on who's hot and who's not seems like you're going to be behind the curve more often than not. I think if someone displays consistent results, move them up. However, if it's likely a guy is having a hot series, it's probably better to leave him where he is.
    I don't think you have to be to clairvoyant to see who is hot and who is not. It's pretty darn obvious. Right now, the way the Reds are hitting, I would rather have the hot bat getting the extra at bats than the ones that aren't.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
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  12. #41
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC View Post
    You don't get it. If he's hot, ride him till he's not and then put him back when he cools off. It's all about who is producing right now on a team that is struggling offensively. Sometimes you have to get out of the book and into what's really happening on the field. Is Gonzalez going to put up the numbers over the entire season. Very, very doubtful, but I certainly don't have a problem taking advantage of the production while it's there. Your crappy "cult" argument is nothing but a poor defense of a bad position.
    You are the one who chirped the magic "do the right things" phrase.

    And, no, I am not a fan of moving guys who are hot for the reasons Yachtzee related and others. Look, I am rooting like hell for Alex G, I have him on my fantasy team, I want him to hit 20 homeruns this year. Heck I think he can. But I would rather he do it from the seven hole, where his historical (based on MANY at-bats) low OBP does the least damage and his power might do the most good. That's all.

    But, hey, if my railing on the move jinxes him to more homeruns, like today, fine by me.

  13. #42
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Managing ain't what it used to be

    Quote Originally Posted by Yachtzee View Post

    However, I'm not a fan of moving a guy up just because he's got a "hot bat," especially if he's not normally a good hitter. I feel that when you do that, you are essentially reacting to short term results without considering likely future performance. If you move a guy up because he appears "locked in," how long do you keep him up there while he reverts back to his norm? Assuming guys hit in hot and cold cycles, by the time you realize someone has a "hot bat," he's already getting close to the high point in the cycle or else he has already started his decline back towards the mean.


    I understand everyone's problem with the "hot hand" approach.

    But if you didn't look at it this way, what would be the point of advance scouting?

    It's the perfect example of the micro vs. macro argument. Long term stats are perfect for the macro. They are much more important in analyzing personnel moves. But every player has ups and downs, injuries and hot streaks throughout the season. And on top of the short term stats, the coaching staff is watching Alex's stroke, and it's not hard to see he's raking. Will it last forever? Probably not. But let's maximize the return while we can.

    Making these kind of subjective judgments, in concert with an understanding of stats, that's what the smart teams do.

    Sabrmetrics tells us in no uncertain terms that lineup construction doesn't matter. I don't agree with that, and I do believe that certain players are better suited for different slots in the lineup, especially if you are expecting your number two hitter to move runners over by either bunting or hitting it on the ground to the right side. I'm not pushing that approach either. Just commenting on how different game plans require different skill sets.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
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