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Thread: After a month...

  1. #1
    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    After a month...

    The good:

    1. Starting pitching...wow, simply amazing...even Milton has been okay,keeping us in games...and it's got a chance to continue when you consider Harang hasn't been outstanding yet and even if Milton implodes it looks like Dumatrait is certainly capable of Milty-esque numbers...

    2. Hamilton...are you kidding me???...

    3. Alex Gonzalez...the defense is outstanding, the bat is ridiculous at present...to continue??...probably not, but he's had a super month...

    4. 1B platoon...despite our collective protestations, Hatty and YB have really been outstanding...I don't know how they match up (collectively) to ML 1st base numbers (I'm sure someone does) but they have been very, very good so far...

    5. overall plate discipline...yes, we know some guys are in slumps or not having great AB's in certain situations, but by and large we are better at getting on base/getting pitches to hit than in the past...this will lead to good things down the road (those "stat guys" out there can substantiate, I'm sure)

    Bad (but getting better):
    1. attacking LHP...EE, Phillips and Ross are all coming around...unfortunately they were all in a major slump at the same time, causing us major problems with any LH starter...the last 2 days are a GREAT sign for improvement

    2. bullpen...better simply with the addition of Salmon and removal of Cormier...will get better if (yes, an if) Bray and/or Easy Eddie G can truly contribute...the 1st 10 days of season were an aberration, but so was the week of hell from the pen...we really need an effective Todd Coffey..

    The Ugly:
    1. Lack of consistent play...solid defense followed by an inning of ugly...good AB's followed by swinging at a 2-0 when we shouldn't have...losing concentration and giving up too much of the plate, either as a pitcher or a hitter...blame who we want, this must improve for we don't have the margin of error to compensate for poor execution night in-night out...

    2. Griffey's health...I'm simply sad for the man, and amazed at how he is crucified locally while lauded nationally (anyone see the Sports Reporters yesterday??)...yet folks in SF love Bonds despite everything...with every bone in my body do I wish fortune would reverse and Griffey would have the 8 HR and Bonds would be breaking down...but life is simply not fair...don't ever underestimate our lineup misses and needs Griffey during the season (400 AB's worth at least) to make a surprising run at the NL central...

    3. The Brewers are getting it done...they ARE the most talented team and the only team with a deeper, more solid rotation than the Reds...can they sustain it???


    We frittered away a great month of starting pitching, but we salvaged a month of wretched hitting and situational play and bullpen production...

    Arroyo, Lohse, Belisle, Santos, Conine, Gonzalez, Hamilton


    You cannot defeat an ignorant man in an argument!
    -William Gibbs McAdoo

    Though many of us here are sure trying

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  3. #2
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: After a month...

    Reds starting pitching has been pretty good the first month. Ranks in the NL so far:

    WHIP - 1st, 1.21
    K/BB - 1st, 3.75
    ERA - 3rd, 3.44
    OPSA - 3rd, .676
    K/9 - 6th, 6.76

    The Reds First Basemen are currently 6th in the NL in OPS at .839 after one month of play.

  4. #3
    Member 15fan's Avatar
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    Re: After a month...

    Quote Originally Posted by coachw513 View Post
    The good:

    1. ...even Milton has been okay,keeping us in games...
    YTD Pitching Stats for Cincinnati

    In 21 starts, Harang, Arroyo, Belisle and Lohse have combined for 13 quality starts. Bronson has 4, and each of the other 3 guys has 3 apiece.

    In 4 starts, Eric Milton has 1 quality start. He's tied with Victor Santos with the fewest Ks / 9 IP on the staff (5.57 for EM, 5.56 for Santos), and the only pitchers with a worse WHIP than Milton's 1.43 are Rheal DFA Cormier's 1.67, Todd Coffey's 1.62, and Jared Burton's 9.00 (in 1/3 IP). He's tied with Harang & Lohse for having given up the most HRs (3), despite the fact that Harang has pitched 38.1 innings and Lohse has pitched 34.1, compared to Milton's 21.0 IP.

    The interpretation is that maybe Milton has pitched marginally better than he has the past 2 years. That doesn't change the fact that by sticking just about anyone else in Milton's slot, the Reds would be better off.

    6 quality starts for Belisle and Lohse. That's the key.
    Last edited by 15fan; 04-30-2007 at 12:44 PM.

  5. #4
    Your killin' me Smalls! StillFunkyB's Avatar
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    Re: After a month...

    Quote Originally Posted by 15fan View Post
    The interpretation is that maybe Milton has pitched marginally better than he has the past 2 years. That doesn't change the fact that by sticking just about anyone else in Milton's slot, the Reds would be better off.
    I think that is what most people are/were screaming about this spring is that why not throw someone out there that at least has a shot to be better. You know what Eric Milton is going to give you, and they have several lefty starters that can do the same with the possibility of doing much better.

    I watched Eric's first start of the year, and honestly the Brewers should have murdered him. He was throwing fat ones and they just weren't really hitting them.
    "And the fact that watching him pitch is like having someone poop on your soul." FCB on Gary Majewski

  6. #5
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    Re: After a month...

    The Yankees desperately need starters. Give Milton away!

  7. #6

    Re: After a month...

    Where is FBC
    HUBBA A man who knows everything,just can't remember it all at one time.

  8. #7

    Re: After a month...

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    The Yankees desperately need starters. Give Milton away!
    Who would you replace replace him with that is better?
    HUBBA A man who knows everything,just can't remember it all at one time.

  9. #8
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: After a month...

    Dumatrait.

    But no one wants Milton, so there we are.

  10. #9
    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    Re: After a month...

    Quote Originally Posted by 15fan View Post

    In 4 starts, Eric Milton has 1 quality start. He's tied with Victor Santos with the fewest Ks / 9 IP on the staff (5.57 for EM, 5.56 for Santos), and the only pitchers with a worse WHIP than Milton's 1.43 are Rheal DFA Cormier's 1.67, Todd Coffey's 1.62, and Jared Burton's 9.00 (in 1/3 IP). He's tied with Harang & Lohse for having given up the most HRs (3), despite the fact that Harang has pitched 38.1 innings and Lohse has pitched 34.1, compared to Milton's 21.0 IP.

    The interpretation is that maybe Milton has pitched marginally better than he has the past 2 years. That doesn't change the fact that by sticking just about anyone else in Milton's slot, the Reds would be better off.
    Anyone's 5th starter that has averaged giving up only 3 runs per outing would be more than acceptable...

    1st start: left trailing 4-0
    2nd start: left trailing 2-0
    3rd start: left trailing 3-1
    last start: left trailing 3-0

    2 of the runs he's given up are unearned...

    You mention his WHIP...but of the other 21 starters in the NL Central thus far Milton's WHIP is better than 7 starters in the division...so he's more than exceeding the role of the 5th starter in this rotation...(and I'm simply evaluating him on what he is-a 5th starter-not what he might/should be)...in addition, his K/BB ratio would be better than 9 other NL Central starters...

    His number one failing is getting off to slow starts, giving up 6 of his 12 runs in the 1st inning...it is NOT an acceptable excuse but he is the 1 member of the rotation not to stay on a regular schedule...

    Finally, he's gotten horrible run support...we lament the lack of support for Arroyo (and deservedly so) but the run support for Milton has been just as bad...

    IF you believe Livington, Dumatrait, Bailey or someone else is better I can't disagree...but to say that Milton's April performance would necessarily be worse than 1 of these others, I'm not so certain...big difference from missing AAA bats and missing ML bats...
    Last edited by coachw513; 04-30-2007 at 02:12 PM. Reason: WHIP and K/BB stats for NL Central starters


    You cannot defeat an ignorant man in an argument!
    -William Gibbs McAdoo

    Though many of us here are sure trying

  11. #10
    Member 15fan's Avatar
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    Re: After a month...

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    The Yankees desperately need starters. Give Milton away!
    Or get Theo on the line for a 3 way. I bet he'd offer to pony up some cash to get Milton into the Yankee rotation.

  12. #11
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    Re: After a month...

    he was DanO's foundation. It's why he stays at the bottom.

    tell him that you'd rather that he be the roof. See what happens.

  13. #12
    Member 15fan's Avatar
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    Re: After a month...

    Quote Originally Posted by coachw513 View Post
    ...big difference from missing AAA bats and missing ML bats...
    And Milton isn't missing many ML bats. Though not shocking, that continues to be the problem.

    Here are some more Milton splits for 2007:

    In 5 ABs when he's been ahead in the count 0-1, opponents have a 1.000 OPS against him.

    That's a small sample size, so let's look at a couple more pitchers counts.

    In 14 ABs with a 1-1 count, opponents are OPS-ing the same 1.000

    In 19 ABs with a 1-2 count, opponents are OPS-ing 1.158.

    In the 7 ABs he's jumped ahead 0-2, opponents are only OPS-ing .857

    As reference points, Adam Dunn's OPS so far this season is .874. Chase Utley and Miguel Reyes are right around 1.000, Miguel Cabrera is #2 in the NL at 1.109, while Barry Bonds is at 1.353.

    He's most hittable when the count has him in the driver's seat. At 1-2 in the count, the guy in the batters box turns into Miguel Cabrera. That'd be one thing if Milton had been facing big time lineups.

    But 2 of his 4 starts have been against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 14th in the NL in runs scored (83), leading only the Cards (81) and the Nats (78).

  14. #13
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    Re: After a month...

    Wow, thats really strange splits.

    Sounds like his breaking pitches are hanging over the plate.

    Thats if when he has the batter down early in the count he then goes to his breaking balls, i'm not sure as I haven't really watched him this year.

    There is also the small sample size thing too, I guess.

  15. #14
    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    Re: After a month...

    Quote Originally Posted by 15fan View Post
    And Milton isn't missing many ML bats. Though not shocking, that continues to be the problem.

    Here are some more Milton splits for 2007:

    In 5 ABs when he's been ahead in the count 0-1, opponents have a 1.000 OPS against him.

    That's a small sample size, so let's look at a couple more pitchers counts.

    In 14 ABs with a 1-1 count, opponents are OPS-ing the same 1.000

    In 19 ABs with a 1-2 count, opponents are OPS-ing 1.158.

    In the 7 ABs he's jumped ahead 0-2, opponents are only OPS-ing .857

    As reference points, Adam Dunn's OPS so far this season is .874. Chase Utley and Miguel Reyes are right around 1.000, Miguel Cabrera is #2 in the NL at 1.109, while Barry Bonds is at 1.353.

    He's most hittable when the count has him in the driver's seat. At 1-2 in the count, the guy in the batters box turns into Miguel Cabrera. That'd be one thing if Milton had been facing big time lineups.

    But 2 of his 4 starts have been against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 14th in the NL in runs scored (83), leading only the Cards (81) and the Nats (78).
    First of all, that's a great post...very good stuff...

    I wasn't saying Milton is lighting it up right now...I'm just justifiying my position that regardless of how he's doing it, his bottom line performance for the month of April was acceptable...

    I totally accept the premise the wheels may fall off at any time and that we might end up needing to DFA him...but IF he were to pitch like this all year, I'd happily take it...


    You cannot defeat an ignorant man in an argument!
    -William Gibbs McAdoo

    Though many of us here are sure trying

  16. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: After a month...

    A sub 5.00 ERA and 160 IP would make him one of the most effective #5 starters in baseball. Measure him against his salary or prior expectations and sure, he's crap. Anybody who thinks Livingston, et. al. are necessarily better hasn't been paying attention to Joe Mays, Justin Germano, Randy Keisler, etc. over the last few years. Yes, one of the AAA guys not named Bailey MIGHT be better than Milton, but it's certainly no guarantee.

    As other's have said, I'm not married to the guy. If he starts getting truly lit up, I'm happy to see somebody else get a shot. But if he can keep doing what he's done to date in terms of ERA, that's more than acceptable.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-30-2007 at 03:14 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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