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Thread: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

  1. #1
    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
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    Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    Just for a moment, let's look at Milton's performance compared to other #5 starters in the division so far:

    Wade Miller (Cubs)= 10.54
    Matt Albers ('Stros)= 3.72
    Dave Bush (Brewers)= 6.03
    Tony Armas (Pirates)= 8.66
    Anthony Reyes (Cards)= 5.46 (actually the Cards currently have no established 5th starter, Reyes is their #4)
    Eric Milton (Reds)= 4.85

    As you can see, #5 is a TRAIN WRECK in most cases. Only Albers has a better ERA but he has averaged UNDER 5 innings per start--Milton has averaged over 5 innings per start, and the only criticism I would make of Milton is that he's had some inefficient, short outings.

    On top of that, Milton has given up 3 home runs over 5 starts. Over a 30 start season thats 18-25HRs (if his starts get longer) for the season, a HUGE improvement, and the very best one could hope for from Eric.

    The problem the team has is a nonperforming bullpen and an utterly flaccid offense. We really need to break ourselves of what I think is a habit of bashing Eric Milton, and see the truth that he is performing his role on the team relatively well, huge salary notwithstanding.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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  3. #2
    Public Enemy #1 Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    They aren't paying their #5 guys $9 million this year.


    Milton will get worse.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  4. #3
    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    They aren't paying their #5 guys $9 million this year.


    Milton will get worse.
    Regardless of the money, the fact is he came into the season as the #5 starter and he's performed in that role admirably. As far as your second statement, um well, I hope that's not the case.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

  5. #4
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    I agree with Wheelhouse that almost all #5 starters have issues. They're either on their way out of the rotation or thrown into the rotation or coming back from injury.

  6. #5
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    No.

    I will not be thankful for Eric Milton. Roll out all the #5 starter stats you want.

    Eric Milton's contract dictates he be on this team. His performance however does not. He is preventing Livingston or Dumatrait from starting. His contract is hindering the acquisition of better players for the bench and bullpen. The difference right now between Belisle and Milton, is Milton is pitching at his ceiling. Belisle's ceiling is possibly as high as a #2 starter. Livingston's ceiling is as high as a #2. Dumatrait, if he's finally healthy has a similar ceiling. That doesn't mean any of these guys will achieve that ceiling, but at least it's there. I won't even mention Bailey as I don't think he's a factor right now.

    No.

    I will not be thankful for Eric Milton.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  7. #6
    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    [QUOTE=Tom Servo;1331499]They aren't paying their #5 guys $9 million this year.[QUOTE]

    People keep saying #5. It appears to me that he's pitching in the #4 slot, ahead of Belisle.
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

  8. #7
    Member Redlegs's Avatar
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    The problem is Milton was brought in here to be a #1 or a #2. He's evolved into a #5. He's actually pitched better this year than his record, but I'll be glad when he's gone. There are better options at Louisville, as we key.
    Last edited by Redlegs; 05-05-2007 at 05:11 PM.
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  9. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    They aren't paying their #5 guys $9 million this year.


    Milton will get worse.
    And how much are those teams paying their aces? We're paying #1 & #2 guys a combined less than 9m. How's Zambrano pitching? How about Carpenter? Sheets?

    Harang wasn't brought in to be an ace. Neither was Arroyo. But they've pitched like ones. Yes, in isolation, nobody is pleased with Milton. But given what he is, our #5 starter, he's one of the best in the league. Some people would just rather see no name scrubs making less money giving us a 7.00 ERA than getting a 5.00 ERA from Milton.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 05-05-2007 at 05:10 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #9
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Harang wasn't brought in to be an ace. Neither was Arroyo. But they've pitched like ones. Yes, in isolation, nobody is pleased with Milton. But given what he is, our #5 starter, he's one of the best in the league. Some people would just rather see no name scrubs making less money giving us a 7.00 ERA than getting a 5.00 ERA from Milton.
    You assume Dumatrait or Livingston would be giving a 7.00. They'd at least as well as Milton, with room to grow as a pitcher.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #10
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    Mays '06 -- 7.33
    Claussen '06 -- 6.19
    Williams '06 -- 7.20
    Milton '05 -- 6.47
    Wilson '05 -- 7.77
    Ortiz '05 -- 5.36
    Hudson '05 -- 6.38
    Acevedo '04 -- 5.94
    Claussen '04 -- 6.14

    I think it's absolutely delightful that we're so spoiled by our starting pitching that we're complaining about a guy who would've looked like a relative ace a couple years ago. It's been a remarkable turnaround and if the bullpen can be turned around similarly, this team will start winning a lot more games. Meanwhile, Milton so far is nowhere near this team's biggest problem, and throwing him away would be stupid unless you have a virtual guarantee his replacement would be at least as good, which isn't automatically true, no matter how many times you say it.

  12. #11
    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    Quote Originally Posted by TeamBoone View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    They aren't paying their #5 guys $9 million this year.
    People keep saying #5. It appears to me that he's pitching in the #4 slot, ahead of Belisle.

    Milton is the #5 starter. The reason he is pitching ahead of Belisle is because past off days have moved the #5 position ahead of the #4 pitcher. The current rotation is 1-2-3-5-4.
    Last edited by Big Klu; 05-05-2007 at 05:28 PM.
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  13. #12
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    You assume Dumatrait or Livingston would be giving a 7.00. They'd at least as well as Milton, with room to grow as a pitcher.
    They'd pitch at least as well as Milton? Really? Because neither of them has ever pitched as well in the major leagues as Eric Milton. I'm glad you're psychic.

    I'm not an Eric Milton fan. When/If he starts to really suck again and his ERA inflates to the mid 5.00's, I'm all for giving one of those guys a chance. However, if either of those guys were able to come up and give us 150 IP with a 5.00, we'd consider that year a success for them.

    Here's what PECOTA, the most accurate projection system in existence, says are the 25, 50, and 75th percentiles for each guy. Clearly, it doesn't think Dumatrait belongs in the majors. However, it basically says that Livingston and Milton are the same guy. Their 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles are nearly identical. If Milton does bomb, we can always ditch him. But he's pitching around his 75th percentile right now. PECOTA suggests that they actually don't really have any higher upside.

    Milton
    75: 4.57, 1.34
    50: 5.54, 1.45
    25: 7.22, 1.64

    Dumatrait
    75: 4.86, 1.53
    50: 6.01, 1.69
    25: 7.02, 1.83

    Livingston
    75: 4.78, 1.39
    50: 5.56, 1.49
    25: 6.74, 1.63

    Again, don't get me wrong. Eric Milton is not a good pitcher. He's seriously overpaid. However, cutting off your nose to spite your face is just that, spite. If we're replacing Milton with a true high upside guy like Bailey, I'm all for it. But if we're just going to replace him with a younger version of himself, saving no money in the process and just cutting an arm from the organization, well, I think that's stupid. When Milton's performance on the mound justifies cutting him loose, I'll be all for it. For now, it doesn't.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #13
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    Lets be thankful for the Reds 9Million dollar investment that can't get passed the 6th inning.

    Every night Milton starts you're looking at the bully picking up 4+ innings at a minimum.

    That's a bullpen killer if there ever was.

  15. #14
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    I think the Reds have lost every game Milton has pitched this year. I should be thankful for that?

  16. #15
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Be THANKFUL for Eric Milton

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcclain19 View Post
    Lets be thankful for the Reds 9Million dollar investment that can't get passed the 6th inning.

    Every night Milton starts you're looking at the bully picking up 4+ innings at a minimum.

    That's a bullpen killer if there ever was.
    What did registerthis say about the "At least Stanton Cares" thread over on Reds Live?

    Yeah.
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